Brian

Not investment advice.

[Brian @analyst315]

@P_Remarks @WaterworldCapi1 The beauty of being long memory at this point is not just the “this time is different” commodity exposure, but you also get to be in the same boat with an increasingly cultish retail investors while being implicitly short human ingenuity.

[Brian @analyst315]

@Biohazard3737 This observation applies across most sectors at the moment. It’s an exciting time.

[Brian @analyst315]

@evrgn11112231 *ARRR

[Brian @analyst315]

@TBU12345678 Market shouldn't capitalize any significant % of non-HBM earnings over the next few years, and SCAs now place a cap on the px-driven upside path. Certainty of near-term earnings ≠ "real multiple" for commodities, and better line of sight to the peak isn't bullish.

[Brian @analyst315]

@alpha_exposure $SMR vibes

[Brian @analyst315]

@OnodaCapital Yesterday's interview will age like milk as well

[Brian @analyst315]

@P_Remarks Only a fund or two?

[Brian @analyst315]

@OnodaCapital

[Brian @analyst315]

@Biohazard3737 Makes a merger of equals with Tesla feasible at or near this valuation

[Brian @analyst315]

@WaterworldCapi1

[Brian @analyst315]

@toptickcrypto There’s a pretty obvious four-letter name that accounts for most of the valuation and the numbers are largely irrelevant (for now).

[Brian @analyst315]

@viggy_krishnan @pekwat Sure it will, every cyclical boom ends the same way. Enterprises driving ROI from AI spend and shares of every bottleneck supplier going down 70-90% from peak are not mutually exclusive. It’s just a question of who is holding those bags when it turns.

[Brian @analyst315]

@viggy_krishnan @pekwat This is, definitionally, the greater fool theory. And the participants, by and large, have historically been secular growth investors now seeking out the next cyclical winner. How do we think this is going to end?

[Brian @analyst315]

@ContrarianCurse Multiples compressing while numbers are moving higher? Haha good one

[Brian @analyst315]

@WaterworldCapi1 @pekwat Agree on the first half. The corollary is that they roll over before it’s obvious that the cycle is rolling.

[Brian @analyst315]

@P_Remarks Clearly you weren’t aware that KVYO beat by 3% instead of its usual 4-5%. Doomsday has arrived.

[Brian @analyst315]

@OnodaCapital I think you mean the Glu Mobile guy

[Brian @analyst315]

@P_Remarks @WaterworldCapi1 Plenty of things you can be short to hedge this risk / inevitability… and it’s not the traditional hyperscalers

[Brian @analyst315]

@RagingVentures Are pods de-grossing today?

[Brian @analyst315]

@given2tweet - Damage to ME petrochem and LNG plants = supply chain disruptions, inflation
- Severe depletion of various U.S. munitions
- Removed sanctions on Russian (and Iranian!) oil
- Further cracks in NATO
- China the adult in the room, again (if reporting is correct)