@P_Remarks@WaterworldCapi1 The beauty of being long memory at this point is not just the “this time is different” commodity exposure, but you also get to be in the same boat with an increasingly cultish retail investors while being implicitly short human ingenuity.
@TBU12345678 Market shouldn't capitalize any significant % of non-HBM earnings over the next few years, and SCAs now place a cap on the px-driven upside path. Certainty of near-term earnings ≠ "real multiple" for commodities, and better line of sight to the peak isn't bullish.
@viggy_krishnan@pekwat Sure it will, every cyclical boom ends the same way. Enterprises driving ROI from AI spend and shares of every bottleneck supplier going down 70-90% from peak are not mutually exclusive. It’s just a question of who is holding those bags when it turns.
@viggy_krishnan@pekwat This is, definitionally, the greater fool theory. And the participants, by and large, have historically been secular growth investors now seeking out the next cyclical winner. How do we think this is going to end?
@given2tweet - Damage to ME petrochem and LNG plants = supply chain disruptions, inflation
- Severe depletion of various U.S. munitions
- Removed sanctions on Russian (and Iranian!) oil
- Further cracks in NATO
- China the adult in the room, again (if reporting is correct)