“Investors are using gold derivatives to hedge portfolios against large-scale changes in government policies, which could be making gold more volatile”
Agricultural commodities have just broken decisively above nearly 20 years of resistance.
And this is happening while:
▪️Diesel prices approach all-time highs
▪️Mortgage rates hover near 7%, with housing already deeply unaffordable
▪️Wealth inequality stands near historic extremes
This is precisely the kind of combination that can trigger widespread social unrest, dramatic policy shifts, and intense political pressure.
None of us own enough hard assets.
https://t.co/j8Z4uxDioQ
Paul Tudor Jones in an Interview with Patrick Oshaughnessy sums up and connects the valuation pieces of the overall market well:
“We’re 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.
If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.
Let’s say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.
10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.
In the stock market, we’re over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.
And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it’s about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We’re so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.
The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That’s what history shows.
So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that’s because that’s an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.
Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market’s really high and it’s gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view.”
Money matters, Fed chair Kevin Warsh told Jackson Hole today, calling the view unfashionable. Bond markets priced a hike within the hour.
US M2 per person was USD 109 in 1900 and USD 63,803 in 2025, while the population grew 4.5 times.
Gold's scarcity needs no committee.
Many people are starting to piece together something that has been quite clear for many years:
China plans a gold-convertible renminbi to internationalize…
I have always said gold is king on the chess board.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, came in at 3.3% for July.
That marks 65 consecutive months above the Fed’s 2% target.
In June, Kevin Warsh said:
“We’ve missed for 5 years. And we’re gonna fix that.”
So far: all talk, no action.
Video: https://t.co/4R1MpUU06W
Amazes me that no one is mentioning this as a solution.
Want to restore confidence in the Treasury market?
Put something real behind it.
Announce a massive gold-purchase program.
This would be a far better use of taxpayer dollars than another QE policy dressed up under a different name.
I am dead serious.
The Treasury market is desperate for a credible collateral anchor.
The United States once held more gold than the rest of the world combined.
US gold reserves now stand at a 90-year low relative to the country’s debt burden, with gold backing just 3% of total debt — while the rest of the world is buying at a historic pace.
Enough of this.
The bond market is screaming for monetary discipline.
This is our easiest way out, perhaps the only way out.
The US can no longer simply stop spending without triggering an economic depression.
Accumulate real money. Strengthen the Treasury’s balance sheet. Restore confidence in the bond market.
Start there.
https://t.co/C9oWdhtwwY