Anatoly Lubarsky

Game developer

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@Clumpolitics @israel_elects >>Did you see this poll done by Daniel Amram?<<

This poll is not credible. Shas is a specific demographic party. Their minimum is 11 based on demographics only. This poll says it's 4. Liberman is max 7. This poll gives him 12.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@marklevinshow >>a Channel 12 poll finds.<<

It's channel 12, it's the same as CNN polls about Trump.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@reghdfe_ @charlesmurray >>Yes all authors colluded to look early and phopetic<<

That is a strawman. I said that if the texts are late, then the silence about 70 AD could be deliberate, because there was an incentive to make the texts look early and prophetic.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

>>Killing U.S. troops would be good reason to restart<<

This is not what Trump said. He was asked whether Iran killing US troops would be his red line for restarting the conflict. His "good reason" meant "sufficient justification to respond". In your post which omits the Q&A context, "good reason" sounds like US troops being killed would be a "good opportunity" to restart the war. That changes the meaning.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@I0m9qt1TjMsC8Yd @ItayBlumental // שתרכשו מערכת קיימת מארה"ב //

זה עוד לא מבצעי ודור ראשון די מוגבל. עובדים כרגע על דור שני.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@StevenVitorino @JackHua46704097 @AmitSegal @grok &gt;&gt;230:1 civilian deaths even if we assume 80% of dead Lebanese are militants&lt;&lt;

It's not 230:1. You cheated by cherry picking 2026 only which grok said it was 3 - which is not statistically significant to make calculations. It is 30:1 assuming 80% combatants.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@Osint613 &gt;&gt;Channel 12 Claims: IDF&lt;&lt;

Channel 12 is a far-left opposition channel. They will report anything to make Netanyahu and Katz look bad.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

>>the ruling will clear the path for Roman Gofman to become the next Director of the Mossad<<

They had to approve him because of the upcoming elections. Otherwise, a large part of the Russian-speaking voters would vote for Bibi instead of Lieberman, creating a real risk that Lieberman would not pass the electoral threshold.

In any case, after the elections, the “ongoing legal challenges” will resume if Likud wins. If the left wins, they will simply fire him.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@AmitSegal @MarioNawfal &gt;&gt;stand-down order&lt;&lt;

I'm surprised he didn't ask you about the Hannibal conspiracy too - the claim that Israel killed most of the casualties on October 7 under the Hannibal Directive. The "stand-down order" conspiracy and the Hannibal conspiracy usually go together.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@AmitSegal @MarioNawfal &gt;&gt;By "stand-down order", Nawfal meant the conspiracy&lt;&lt;

Charlie Kirk, for example: "Was there a stand-down order? Six hours? I don't believe it"
https://t.co/EPJS7SbYqv

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@LauraLoomer @RealCandaceO @AGDugin &gt;&gt;Dugin, a close advisor of Vladimir Putin&lt;&lt;

Dugin is not Putin's close advisor. He is not part of Putin's inner circle, and the claim that he personally advises Putin is unsupported; he is an outside propaganda influencer, not a Kremlin insider.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@ldattel // ממה שהיה כשקיבל את המשרד //

את הירידה ב-2023 צריך לראות בעיקר כנתון שקיש ירש, לא כתוצאה של מדיניותו. הוא נכנס למשרד החינוך בסוף דצמבר 2022, כששנת הלימודים כבר הייתה בעיצומה, והשכבה שנבחנה בבגרות במתמטיקה במאי-יוני כבר עברה את רוב תהליך ההכנה, השיבוץ ל-5 יחידות והלימוד בפועל.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

Thoughts on Israel War #43: Enriched Uranium 2

We are in the middle of US-Iran negotiations. It is hard to see Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium. But it was also hard to see Hamas giving up the hostages, and in the end, it did.

For Hamas, the hostages were the same kind of leverage that enriched uranium is for the IRGC. It took several rounds of intense Israeli military pressure and several rounds of ceasefires to get there, but eventually Hamas had to give up.

The tipping point was the last operation to retake Gaza City. Contrary to expectations, it went very smoothly for Israel and with very few casualties.

Has a country ever given up its nuclear arsenal before? Yes. South Africa gave up its nuclear arsenal between 1990 and 1991. The practical reason was that the arsenal had become a barrier to sanctions relief, foreign investment and political normalization.

The economic pressure was real. In 1985, Chase Manhattan stopped rolling over short-term loans. Other banks pulled back. The rand collapsed. South Africa had large short-term foreign debt coming due, and by September 1985 South Africa announced a debt standstill/moratorium.

On July 10, 1991, President George Bush lifted most US sanctions against South Africa. However, the US still kept the arms embargo and nuclear-trade restrictions in place.

On March 24, 1993, South Africa publicly admitted that it had built and dismantled six nuclear bombs.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

Thoughts on Israel War #31: Enriched Uranium

On June 12, Israel launched a major operation targeting Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile sites to eliminate an existential threat. The operation was a significant success. In just a few days, Israel reportedly killed 14 Iranian nuclear scientists involved in the weapons program. Among the high-ranking Iranian casualties were two chiefs of the general staff, as well as top intelligence and air force generals.

Air defenses in western Iran — including areas near Tehran — were destroyed, along with many ballistic missile launch sites that were already loaded to attack Israel. Key nuclear facilities, including Natanz and several others, were also hit and sustained damage.

Iran responded by launching nightly barrages of ballistic missiles at Israeli cities. While the number of missiles has been gradually decreasing due to Israeli strikes on launchers, storage depots, and production sites, the attacks continue. Each missile that breaks through Israeli air defenses causes substantial damage, hitting both residential areas and strategic infrastructure.

On the night of June 21, the United States carried out a powerful follow-up strike. Six B-2 bombers dropped a total of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs — each weighing 30,000 pounds — targeting Iranian nuclear sites. The strike focused on Fordow, which is deeply buried inside a mountain; Natanz, which has significant underground components though not as deeply protected; and Isfahan, which is largely above ground. In addition to the bunker-busting bombs, Tomahawk cruise missiles were used to destroy buildings and factories tied to Iran’s nuclear weapons program. These strikes effectively destroyed the last remaining operational elements of Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

A satellite image dated June 19 — two days before the American strike — showed 14 to 16 trucks at the entrance to the Fordow site. It’s possible these trucks were used to transfer the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium — reportedly around 880 pounds — to other locations. They may also have been used to remove sensitive equipment, documents, or key personnel from the site before the attack.

Let's speculate how the uranium could have been moved. If the 880 pounds of enriched uranium metal were divided into 20 separate pieces of 44 pounds each, that would make handling and transport more manageable. Uranium metal is extremely dense — about 0.69 pounds per cubic inch — so each 44-pound piece would occupy only about 64 cubic inches in volume. That’s roughly the size of a large soda can or a thick paperback book.

To reduce radiation exposure, each piece would likely be enclosed in a shielding layer of about half an inch of lead. With shielding and a basic steel or composite container, the total weight of each package would come to around 110 pounds — heavy, but still liftable by a strong person or easily moved with a dolly or by two people. Each package would be about the size of a small toolbox or lunch cooler.

Using the trucks seen in the satellite image, it would have been entirely feasible to transport all 20 of these shielded packages, along with other equipment or material. Once removed and dispersed, tracking them becomes extremely difficult.

If the enriched uranium was taken from Fordow before the strike, the core question now is: where is it?

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@LauraLoomer @MayorFrey &gt;&gt;George Floyd died from a Fentanyl overdose&lt;&lt;

Floyd had Fentanyl in his system but the dose was far below life-threatening levels. Floyd had a severe heart disease; recently recovered from COVID + fentanyl + police force. All that TOGETHER didn't leave him enough chance.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@Osint613 &gt;&gt;it’s hard for me to see Iran giving up its enriched uranium.&lt;&lt;

It was hard to see Hamas giving up the hostages, but in the end they did. For Hamas, the hostages were the same kind of leverage that enriched uranium is for the IRGC.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@AmitSegal Israel is not the U.S.; elections are not decided by tiny swing-state margins. The public is mostly right wing and the real game is coalition math. The left wins by pulling a small right-wing party across the line, or by running as "right" and forming a left coalition later.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@AmitSegal &gt;&gt;in recent cycles, it was suburban women&lt;&lt;

This is broken logic: "undecided voters" are not a demographic. Many suburban voters are not undecided, and many undecided voters are not suburban. In 2020 Trump lost ground in white suburbs. That example contradicts the argument.

[Anatoly Lubarsky @anatoly]

@Garrett_Archer @JoeConchaTV &gt;&gt;This isn't math.&lt;&lt;

The numbers are also wrong. Obama got 69.5 and not 68.

Hypothetically, if Barack Obama had run in 2020 and received the same % of votes as he did in 2008, having the 2020 turnout rate, he would have received approximately 82.6M votes (more than Biden).