Andrew

[Andrew @and___rew___]

This is the final paragraph of Paul Johnson’s book “Intellectuals” written in 1988. Very prescient

[Rand Paul @RandPaul]

There were 120 secret biolabs in 30 different countries.

Let that sink in.

https://t.co/hQQLS3uUUx

[FischerKing @FischerKing64]

I hate to break it to you - but the United States is an absolute, incoherent shitshow.

The idea that we have ‘representative government’ is ridiculous. If that were true we would not have wasted billions killing Iranians for no reason at all. Some people wanted this - but the voters who elected this government did not.

Let’s go further. When Trump goes to China - he brings our ‘great billionaires’ with him. I can’t think of any more obvious symbol that we live in an oligarchy that does everything it can to manipulate outcomes - and that voting is a bit of a joke. It’s like he’s bringing with him ‘the ruling elite.’ Because that is what he did.

We have at least 40 million illegal aliens living here. Our business ‘leaders’ engineered this by bribing politicians to keep the border open - because they wanted to pay low wages and make mucho $$ for themselves. When people objected because their incomes were falling - the business leaders accused them of racism and funded Barack Obama to become POTUS.

The USA is $40 trillion in debt - and no one has a plan to solve that problem. Absolutely no one. This will blow up one day - and it will destroy normal people who save in dollars - because the unspoken plan is to destroy the currency and save the rich and destroy the rest. But people who own our homes - like Blackstone or Blackrock - won’t care because their assets will follow inflation. Everyone else will be reduced to paupers renting from them - their bank accounts gone.

The United States today is hopelessly dysfunctional. It lacks a coherent population that can even agree on anything. It is bankrupt - but the rest of the world is propping it up because they are also scared of what happens when the dollar collapses. It doesn’t have any smart leaders - and we have to watch insiders doing oil trades to make $$ on the Iran war - and the administration itself sells shit coins. Our foreign policy is a total joke - not strategic in any way at all. It is driven by special interests, and then not even followed through. And people are actuality making money on it - pump and dump coming straight from the White House.

This is a hell of a way to celebrate 250 Years! At least we can have a cage match on the White House lawn that degrades our entire history and underscores just how bad and ridiculous things are!

Thank you for your attention to this matter! Enjoy the circus! If you’re lucky you will be dead when the music stops!

[Robert P. Murphy @BobMurphyEcon]

It's like the video of the lady freaking out about how her mirror "knows what's behind the blanket." Most of the people mocking her, wouldn't have been able to actually explain it.

[Jeff Deist @jeffdeist]

To all of you fuming in airport lines today, your misery traces back to July 2002-- when the GOP led house voting overwhelmingly to create TSA as part of a new fedgov department known as "Homeland Security."

This was sold by Dick Armey to a very willing George W Bush the same way the CIA was sold to Truman: as a "consolidation" of existing agencies, reports, channels, etc. Efficiency! And hey, if a few airport scanners need to be sold to this new department, so be it.

So instead of owners- airlines- working with airports to secure air travel, we get the worst combination of inept and sinister: DMV/USPS meets Michael Chertoff.

Ten Rs voted no.

Chris Cannon (UT)
John J. Duncan Jr. (TN)
Jeff Flake (AZ)
John Hostettler (IN)
Jerry Moran (KS)
Ron Paul (TX)
Tom Petri (WI)
Tom Tancredo (CO)
Charles H. Taylor (NC)
William M. Thomas (CA)

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

This is probably the most important article of the month: an op-ed by Oman's Foreign Minister, who mediated the talks between the U.S. and Iran, in which he writes that the U.S. "has lost control of its foreign policy" to Israel.

He repeats that a deal was possible as an outcome of the talks (something confirmed by the UK's National Security Advisor, who also attended: https://t.co/XkfSpkMjCf) and that the military strike by the U.S. and Israel was "a shock."

Interestingly, given he is one of Iran's neighbors and given that Oman has been struck multiple times by Iran since the war began (https://t.co/IXNdwD6f3j), he writes that "Iran’s retaliation against what it claims are American targets on the territory of its neighbours was an inevitable result" of the U.S.-Israeli attack. He describes it as "probably the only rational option available to the Iranian leadership."

He says the war "endangers" the region's entire "economic model in which global sport, tourism, aviation and technology were to play an important role." He adds that "if this had not been anticipated by the architects of this war, that was surely a grave miscalculation."

But, he adds, the "greatest miscalculation" of all for the U.S. "was allowing itself to be drawn into this war in the first place."

In his view this was the doing of "Israel’s leadership" who "persuaded America that Iran had been so weakened by sanctions, internal divisions and the American-Israeli bombings of its nuclear sites last June, that an unconditional surrender would swiftly follow the initial assault and the assassination of the supreme leader."

Obviously, this proved completely wrong, and the U.S. is now in a quagmire. He says that, given this, "America’s friends have a responsibility to tell the truth," which is that "there are two parties to this war who have nothing to gain from it," namely "Iran and America."

He says that all of the U.S. interests in the region (end to nuclear proliferation, secure energy supply chains, investment opportunities) are "best achieved with Iran at peace."

As he writes, "this is an uncomfortable truth to tell, because it involves indicating the extent to which America has lost control of its own foreign policy. But it must be told."

He then proposes a couple of paths to get back to the negotiating table, although he recognizes how difficult it would be for Iran "to return to dialogue with an administration that twice switched abruptly from talks to bombing and assassination."

That's perhaps the most profound damage Trump did during this entire episode: the complete discrediting of diplomacy. If Iran was taught anything, it is: don't negotiate with the U.S., it's a trap that will literally kill you.

The great irony of the man who sold himself as a dealmaker is that he taught the world one thing: don't make deals with my country.

Link to the article: https://t.co/FZxtqV3RC4

[Joe Wallin @joewallin]

Let's take a look at how Seattle's DoorDash law actually turned out.

In 2024, Seattle implemented "PayUp" — a minimum wage law for food delivery drivers, setting the rate at $26.40/hour. The intent was to protect workers. Here's what actually happened:

DoorDash added a $5 fee to every order. Customers stopped ordering. Within two weeks, 30,000 fewer orders. UberEats volume dropped 30%. Drivers — the people the law was supposed to help — saw their available deliveries cut in half and earnings per hour fall 25%.

A new National Bureau of Economic Research study confirmed what the numbers already showed: higher per-delivery pay was completely offset by fewer deliveries and lower tips. Active drivers saw zero net gain in monthly earnings.

KUOW reported this week that two years in, the results are undeniable — Seattle is now the most expensive delivery market in the country. Denver, Portland, and San Francisco, cities without these laws, saw delivery revenue grow 20-40%. Seattle stagnated.

The parallel to what's happening with WA tax proposals is obvious. SB 6346 would impose a 9.9% income tax on high earners. The QSBS add-back bills would strip federal tax exclusions from founders. The argument is always "just a small tax on those who can afford it." But capital moves. Founders move. Companies incorporate elsewhere.

The DoorDash data gives us a controlled experiment: same company, same product, same time period, different policy environments. The city with the heaviest regulation saw the worst outcomes — including for the workers it tried to protect.

Incentives matter. Every time.

https://t.co/0rusleqBbk

#StartupLaw #WashingtonState #PolicyMatters #QSBS #Founders #waleg

[Andrew @and___rew___]

@megbasham @conor64 Would you say the same if they were protesting Covid lockdowns?

[Daniel Buck, “Youngest Old Man in Ed Reform” @MrDanielBuck]

Oh this is hilarious. Sad but hilarious.

This study finds (and others confirm) that a teacher earning a graduate degree has a NEGATIVE effect on student achievement

Attending a graduate school of education literally makes teachers WORSE at their job

[Emil Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil]

It doesn't matter how much money you put into schools. Here's a cross-sectional overview. Per pupil spending and math scores.

[Jeffrey A Tucker @jeffreytucker]

Once you understand the history, which goes very deep, you can see that Trump has hit an important point. The meatpacking industry has been consolidating since the 1880s. This was codified with the Pure Food and Drug Act signed into law by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906, alongside the Meat Inspection Act.

The Problem of the Meatpackers https://t.co/6qaFGVy5Ne via @epochtimes

[Andrew @and___rew___]

@Joel_Kurtinitis @MattNellans @ThomasEWoods @SteveDeaceShow What was his dissertation on?

[Robert P. Murphy @BobMurphyEcon]

best i can do is

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

America's Sixth Default Is Coming - What It Means For Gold And Your Wealth https://t.co/82eXyVuSA4

[Kristen Mag @kristenmag]

Oh by the way we are still paying families up to $9000 each to reimburse ‘covid’ funeral costs. It never made sense to subsidize these funerals, but the fact that we’re still doing it TODAY in 2025 is just…astonishing.

[Simon Sarris @simonsarris]

it would almost be a relief if the defining political issue of the next couple decades was dramatic and terrifying and you could defeat it with some brilliant rhetoric or heroic resolve

but more likely it is this

[Corey A. DeAngelis, school choice evangelist @DeAngelisCorey]

The definition of insanity.

[Daniel Turner @DanielTurnerPTF]

I served in the PA Bureau at State under W. PA was the dumping ground of every employee who refused to work but could not be fired.

There some great & knowledgeable & dedicated career staff with 80% bloat. As a political appointee, you needed private insurance because if you fired someone the union could sue you personally, and State sided with the union.

One person spent all day calling information shows to win contests.

Many ran their EBay Store from their desk.

The average person swiped in at 7:58, walked to the cafeteria, and did not get to their desk until 10:30.

Fridays before Redskins or Ravens games half the employees would wear Jerseys and have theme lunches that last 3 hours.

I knew a 30 year old grandmother with 5 kids, no man in her life so did literally nothing but manage her household all day and was told we can’t fire her she has 5 kids and a grandkid and what will happen to them? It was a welfare program.

Many had accrued so much PTO that every Friday they called in sick.

At 3:45 they’d gather by the exits to meet friends. Stare at the big clock. And the second it hit 4:01pm, they’d swipe out. On their card they were there “before 8” stated until “after 4” and that was cause for step increase.

I met some of the most lazy, conniving, selfish individuals at State. Greedy. Entitled. Sabotaging.

If Congress objects ask them if a union manages their office staff, or if they do, and can they hire / fire / promote, or does some other entity get to decide for them.

I cannot applaud this enough except 1300 is short by 7,000. And every other agency needs to do the same. Government is not a welfare or jobs program.

[Andrew @and___rew___]

@micsolana What’s not to get? He’s right

[Arvind Narayanan @random_walker]

I find the story of AI and radiology fascinating. Of course, Hinton's prediction was wrong* and tech advances don't automatically and straightforwardly cause job replacement — that's not the interesting part.

Radiology has embraced AI enthusiastically, and the labor force is growing nevertheless. The augmentation-not-automation effect of AI is despite the fact that AFAICT there is no identified "task" at which human radiologists beat AI. So maybe the "jobs are bundles of tasks" model in labor economics is incomplete. Paraphrasing something @MelMitchell1 pointed out to me, if you define jobs in terms of tasks maybe you're actually defining away the most nuanced and hardest-to-automate aspects of jobs, which are at the boundaries between tasks.

Can you break up your own job into a set of well-defined tasks such that if each of them is automated, your job as a whole can be automated? I suspect most people will say no. But when we think about *other people's jobs* that we don't understand as well as our own, the task model seems plausible because we don't appreciate all the nuances.

If this is correct, it is irrelevant how good AI gets at task-based capability benchmarks. If you need to specify things precisely enough to be amenable to benchmarking, you will necessarily miss the fact that the lack of precise specification is often what makes jobs messy and complex in the first place. So benchmarks can tell us very little about automation vs augmentation.

* Hinton insists that he was directionally correct but merely wrong in terms of timing. This is a classic motte-and-bailey retreat of forecasters who get it wrong. It has the benefit of being unfalsifiable! It's always possible to claim that we simply haven't waited long enough for the claimed prediction to come true.

[Denis Rancourt @denisrancourt]

BREAKING: Our latest large scientific report is out today!
We rigorously demonstrate that high-resolution geotemporal Covid-period excess mortality data in the Northern Hemisphere CONTRADICTS (disproves) the contagion and spread paradigm
https://t.co/FGZ2iF2gYl