Anders Helseth

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

Dumping on retail – How Terra created the perfect exit liquidity

In a standard pump-n-dump, offered supply quickly outweighs demand, and the token crashes.

In the Terra/LUNA case, however, UST worked as the perfect sustained exit liquidity for the early LUNA holders.

🧵

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

@MrWorldPool Looks great! And that database powering it must be even better! 👏

[K33 Research @K33Research]

🇳🇴🇩🇰Nordic Cryptocurrency Ownership🇫🇮🇸🇪

EY and K33 have once again performed crypto adoption surveys in Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland.

👇 Key Takeaways 👇

🔹 Market Overview: 1.5 million individuals in the Nordics, constituting 7% of the adult population, are cryptocurrency owners.

🔹 Demographics: Over 70% of Nordic crypto owners are under 40 years old, reflecting a predominantly young demographic. However, there's a notable gender gap, with men three times more likely to own cryptocurrency than women.

🔹 Mainstream Adoption: Cryptocurrency gained widespread attention in the latter half of 2020 and 2021, coinciding with significant price surges. Interestingly, two-thirds of Nordic crypto owners made their first purchases after 2019.

🔹 Future Projections: Survey data suggests that the number of Nordic crypto owners is poised for significant growth. Projections indicate that within the next decade, 4.6 million individuals in the Nordics will own cryptocurrency.

🔹 Nordic Comparison: Norway boasts the highest crypto ownership rate, while Sweden leads in the sheer number of crypto owners. Demographically, crypto owners across the Nordic countries share similarities, predominantly comprising young males.

🔹 Market Behavior: There are nuances in cryptocurrency trading behavior across the Nordics. Norwegians and Finns favor local exchanges, Danes predominantly utilize international exchanges, and Swedes show a preference for exchange-traded products.

Full report available here: https://t.co/Qkgi8Me05u

[K33 Research @K33Research]

Live from Oslo!

@VetleLunde joined Bloomberg TV yesterday, discussing the current Bitcoin ETF flows, what could be next for Bitcoin after the ETF narrative, and the potential implications for altcoins.

Watch the full interview here: https://t.co/4AlA1Avw5H

[K33 @K33HQ]

We don't only do market research and brokerage, but also run managed funds and structures for professional investors. Reach out you want to learn more about our investment products.
https://t.co/krtJLPoFlN

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

@cardano_whale @K33Research I challenge you to show me the use of Cardano smart contracts where meaningful value is exchanged from people other than subsidized projects or early bagholders. We are happy to change our view if someone shows us proper proof of meaningful use.

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

I am personally very skeptical of the long-term value proposition of the smart chain native tokens.

But even accepting that smart chain native tokens will have significant long-term value, I will confidently state that Ada won't be one of those.

[K33 Research @K33Research]

Why you should sell all your ADA (Cardano)

The Cardano network’s complete lack of meaningful activity will make the Ada token worthless over time.

Read the full reasoning on K33 Research 👇
https://t.co/aF77fwCDTR

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

@StumpyTh Enhver ting som blir utviklet på Cardano kan enkelt kopieres andre steder. Den nåværende fullstendige mangelen på bruk fra ikke-subsidierte prosjekter eller early bagholders, gjør at det ikke er noen grunn til å bruke Cardano, uansett hvor genialt det som utvikles eventuelt er.

[K33 Research @K33Research]

Stay away from the NFTs!
by Head of Research @andershelseth

History rhymes but does not repeat.

Faced with a brewing bull run, anticipatory traders will be wise to acknowledge the above saying. The dynamic of a bull cycle has always been that Bitcoin outperforms first, followed by something else outperforming once the bull run is 'established'.

The narrative that decides which coins or tokens outperform after Bitcoin has established the bull market has varied between cycles. No matter the prevailing narrative, the underlying is largely similar between cycles, though: It turns out to be worthless in the end.

That's not to say you can't profitably trade the narratives. But it requires impeccable timing, or the most secure way, acquire tokens at 0 marginal cost (be a project member or investor).

The outperformance rotation from the last bull market went like this: Bitcoin first (as always), then altcoins in waves (Ether -> memecoins -> Ethereum killers / DeFi), before the last spurt that marked the coming downturn, NFT mania.

After Bitcoin tears up, largely worthless altcoins will outperform again. Whether it's new or old ones is not certain. It will probably be a mix.

What feels more certain is that NFTs will not do the same as last time. My prediction is as follows: If momentum continues to build in the crypto market, NFT wash-trading will ramp up. This will feed a short-lived and slight momentum of people anticipating the same as last time. But then it will stop before gathering any serious momentum.

The allure of NFTs is gone. The relevant people to fuel a run now know NFTs, in the form of ugly pictures or worthless in-game characters to a horrible game, are still s**t even if they're inscribed on a blockchain.

Readers should not read this as saying that the concept of NFTs is worthless – there are several potential use cases. But for most thinkable valuable use cases, the NFT will have its value from the get-go – meaning there are few 1000x NFT trades lying around.

Enough things in crypto that I feel should be worthless have traded at lofty valuations for years, so read this as an opinion. However, the things that trade at these strange 'premiums' (to me) have more complex and unclear value capture mechanisms – meaning everything is more up in the air which helps keep illusions intact.

NFTs, in terms of pictures and in-game characters, are understandable for normal people too. And I predict the relevant public has learnt from their misfortunes last time. Hence, stay away from the NFTs.

[K33 Research @K33Research]

NEW REPORT: 2023 - Year in Review

🔥 Bitcoin leading the way
🌐 Low volatility
💼 CME dominates derivatives
🔄 Altcoins' diverse performance

2024 predictions?
🚀 New ATHs
⛏️ Halving boosts BTC
📆 ETFs in January

Download the full 60-page report now: https://t.co/k1yyMymcIR

[K33 Research @K33Research]

The market *was* wrong.

Subscribe to K33 Research and stay ahead of the curve: https://t.co/KnmMOL06Li

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

Know the mechanics of what you buy and don't get fooled by associations.

UNI will never be able to successfully turn the fee switch on as liquidity providers hold the power.

Tokens, in most cases, are a way for builders/investors to profit on an unprofitable protocol.

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

Uniswap introduces a 0.15% fee to use their front end UX that goes directly into their pockets — absolutely neglecting all the holders of their useless “governance token” UNI that *still* hasn’t turned on a fee switch to provide one scrap of value to those tricked into buying it.

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

@SDWouters @River Great report and great work @SDWouters @River! Exciting to see that Lightning use continues to grow!

[K33 Research @K33Research]

This Week in Crypto - Our Friday Newsletter
New postponement on Mt. Gox Bitcoin hitting the open market
Update on when to expect the sizable stack of Mt. Gox Bitcoin to become liquid and interest rate decisions across the board.

This week's top stories
- 142,000 Bitcoin 'Unlock' Deadline Extended by 12 Months
- Little crypto market impact from interest rate decisions

142,000 Bitcoin 'Unlock' Deadline Extended by 12 Months
The immediate fear of selling pressure from the release of 142,000 Bitcoin that has been locked since 2014 is relieved. The return deadline for the remaining Bitcoin in the bankrupt Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange estate has been extended by a year, shifting from its original date of October 31, 2023, to October 31, 2024.

The Mt. Gox repayment process has continuously and notoriously been delayed for the last five years. You should, therefore, not consider the deadline on October 31, 2024, as absolute. Further delays can happen. That said, according to the trustee, creditors that have provided the necessary details for repayments will start receiving repayments late this year.

Mt. Gox's 127,000 creditors, primarily former exchange customers, have patiently awaited their share of the estate's assets since 2014. Currently, the trustee oversees 142,000 Bitcoin (worth $3.8 billion), 143,000 Bitcoin Cash ($30 million), and 69 billion yen ($470 million) to be distributed among the creditors.

The Mt. Gox exchange suddenly halted all operations in February 2014 when they discovered that most of the exchange's 850,000 Bitcoin, 750,000 held by customers and 100,000 by the exchange were gone. Without the exchange noticing, hackers stole 650,000 Bitcoin between 2011 and 2014.

Little crypto market impact from interest rate decisions
The recent interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (FED) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday had minimal impact on the crypto markets. The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates, while the ECB implemented a 25bps increase.

The rate decisions were as anticipated, with no substantial shifts in the central banks' outlooks that significantly altered market expectations.

In 2021 and 2022, the crypto markets exhibited strong correlations with macroeconomic variables, but these correlations have largely dissipated in 2023. Consequently, monetary policy decisions have a diminished influence on the crypto market compared to the past two years. This is great news for crypto as a portfolio diversifier.

Instead, crypto specific events now have the largest impact on market direction. Examples of such events are the approval or denial of U.S. crypto ETFs and liquidity events like the ongoing Mt. Gox situation.

In a sentence
- New Ethereum testnet: Ethereum's new testnet Holesky goes live on The Merge anniversary.
- Friend. tech is not gone yet: Friend. tech's daily earnings exceed Ethereum, top key hits 40% of Bored Ape Yacht Club floor price.
- Optimism cashing in on parts of initial 30% of OP tokens working budget: Optimism selling $162 million in tokens.
- Bitcoin mining: Bitcoin mining rig maker Bitmain plans to invest $54 million in bankrupt Core Scientific.
- PayPal's new stablecoin: Payment app Venmo to offer PayPal USD stablecoin.

[K33 @K33HQ]

"The discrepancy between retail flows and institutional flows is a very constructive signal for the market onwards"

Senior Analyst at K33, @VetleLunde, joined @BloombergTV yesterday to discuss the current state of the crypto market: https://t.co/9Aa8dRHMFK

[Vetle Lunde @VetleLunde]

The market is wrong - and dramatically underestimates the impact of U.S. BTC ETFs (and ETH futures-based ETFs).

It's a relatively simple exercise to elaborate on my view:

1. Odds for U.S. spot ETF approval have never been better

2. BTC is trading at pre-BlackRock announcement levels

3. Competition and simultaneous launches of U.S. ETFs (if approved) will lead to very strong inflows. I expect stronger inflows than both BITO and Purpose managed in their first trading days.

4. The past four years have seen a strong relationship between strong BTC investment vehicle inflows and appreciating BTC prices.

5. August 17 seriously rinsed the market from excess leverage.

I elaborate on point 3 and 4 below.

[Torbjørn @TorbjrnBullJens]

The Norwegian Central Bank pays attention to the crypto space and invited us over to present one of our recent research reports. ⁦@K33Research⁩

[K33 Research @K33Research]

🚨Grayscale wins against SEC 🚨

The most important spot bitcoin ETF dates below 👇

[K33 Research @K33Research]

Crypto Meets Gambling - The Perfect Marriage?

🎲GambleFi – Rollbit and the rest
by David Zimmerman, DeFi Analyst

Crypto natives love to speculate. They love to bet on market direction and they have a great appetite for risk. It’s no surprise then, that GambleFi has developed into a major narrative.

DISCLOSURE: The author of this article owns $RLB and $DMT.

Rollbit is crypto’s favourite casino, and its native token - $RLB, has solidified its place as the market leader in this sector. With the announcement of a new tokenomics model that sees Rollbit implementing a buyback + burn mechanism, it looks like RLB is primed to become one of this cycle’s biggest runners.

RLB has given us a monster move since the beginning of the year, rising 80x since January. It is no wonder that it has garnered so much attention when Rollbit’s reported numbers are so extraordinary. With daily revenue averaging somewhere between $1.5m - $2m, they are on target to hit around $700m revenue for the year. Why is this a big deal? Because they have announced a buyback and burn system which will take nearly 20% of these earnings daily to buyback RLB and burn the tokens. This translates to $300k+ market buying pressure every day by default. At that rate, we would see $100m in buybacks each year.

While RLB market cap sits at around 500m at the time of writing, you would be forgiven for thinking 300k buys wouldn’t really have a huge impact on price. However, this is on-chain AMM crypto we are talking about. More so than in any other space - market cap is a meme, it is the liquidity that matters. RLB has less than $8m of fragmented liquidity across different trading pools. 300k in market buys per day, with those tokens to be burned and never seen again… An exciting prospect for RLB holders to say the least!

➡️RLB is great, but Rollbit is another story

From what I have written here, this looks like a homerun. And indeed, the most likely outcome in my eyes is that RLB does well in the coming cycle. However, I would be remiss if I failed to mention some conspicuous factors that increase the risk of holding RLB. In other words, let me FUD my own bags.

Without getting too deep into detail, there is a known connection between Rollbit team members and CSGO Diamond - a CSGO skins gambling site that was exposed as a scam. While we have not seen Rollbit execute a classic crypto rug pull, some users have taken to Twitter claiming they have had trouble withdrawing. Rollbit ambassadors have also come under scrutiny for suspicious transactions with RLB tokens they received as part of their sponsorship deal. It’s also important to consider that Rollbit is centralised, and therefore we are expected to trust their revenue data.

You can judge for yourself whether these issues are enough to put you off buying RLB. It is worth noting that very few crypto projects survive in the long run, and very few that garner this much (positive and negative) attention fizzle out slowly over time - it tends to be a much more dramatic ending than that.

➡️“I missed the move, what’s the next RLB?”

I want to preface this with a disclaimer - winners keep winning and market leaders keep leading. As you’re navigating the various narratives that develop in crypto, in the long run, your best chance of seeing good returns is to back the narrative leader. There is always one project that leads the rest from the early stages of narrative development, and this leader tends to outperform the rest as the narrative continues to run.

Having said that, I can’t help but speculate on a project that may catch up and perhaps establish itself as a market leader. $DMT is the native token of Sanko Dream Machine. I mention it as an RLB competitor but there is a significant difference - the team is developing a suite of games not just focused on gambling. Sanko has everything from rake-free Poker, to UNO, to Milady-themed Tekken. Despite all that, it is still very early days in the development of the platform.

While I don’t think Sanko will compete with Rollbit for gambling revenue, the project is building something with a much wider vision. DMT is unique in that it gives you exposure to both GambleFi and GameFi - the latter being another narrative that is gaining momentum once again. Perhaps most exciting of all - Sanko will be moving from its home on Arbitrum L2 to its own L3 which will charge fees in DMT that will subsequently be burned. The more activity on Sanko chain, the more DMT that will be burned.

➡️GambleFi has arrived

It is undeniable that the GambleFi narrative has solidified its place in the crypto ecosystem now. The only question remaining is - how big does the sector get? (We will ignore the questions about the legality of all this, for the sake of both this article and our industry). While I am conscious that we are likely at a local market top here, it would be foolish not to acquire exposure to the GambleFi narrative on a pullback.

RLB will likely continue to outperform the rest, and seems destined to claim its place as the king of all GambleFi tokens. However, this token is not without its risks, as I mentioned above. If you are hungry for more beta (although we are deep down the beta rabbit-hole as it is), you can also speculate on some exciting projects that have big room for growth. With this in mind, it’s important to carefully consider how much you wish to allocate to such a speculative bet. With all that said…

SHUFFLE UP AND DEAL!

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

@kryptofi_norge @K33Research It definitely restricts the appetite for Monero among investors. That has already happened, hence partly priced in to say. Whether regulations are able to kill the use of it in 'black markets', is unknown / based on opinion.

[Anders Helseth @andershelseth]

@kryptofi_norge @K33Research Yes, they should have SOME value. But a key reason for the use of L2 chains is low tx fees. Add that L2 chains should be nearer perfect substitutes for each other than, say, Ethereum and Avalanche, it's hard to see how ARB will capture enough value for a high token price.