I've traded futures markets for five decades. There is ZERO doubt in my mind that Trump money was behind this buying.
There is NOOOOO law that prevents the Trump machine from manipulating futures markets. Inside trading is legal
Trump family fortune grew today. Trump is playing markets like a fiddle
Don't be a panican. There is not an oil shortage.
Prices will drop again soon. The USA is receiving its first shipment of 100 million cumulative barrels of oil from the new Venezuela post Maduro for starters.
🚨 THIS IS HOW A REAL BLACK SWAN STARTS!
What people were warning about has now happened.
Israel and the US have launched strikes on Iran.
And if you think this is just another headline that markets will ignore
YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.
This setup is VERY different from the last symbolic strikes.
This is not a one-off hit.
This is the kind of operation that can last for days, and Reuters reported the US military had already been preparing for a sustained, weeks-long operation against Iran.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because when a conflict stops being a headline and turns into a multi-day operation, the market stops pricing “shock” and starts pricing DURATION.
And duration is where the real damage starts.
There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal.
- LIGHT SHOCK: both sides exchange strikes, both claim victory, and markets slowly stabilize after the first panic.
- HEAVIER SCENARIO: the US gets pulled deeper, the operation drags on, and uncertainty starts hitting oil, shipping, inflation, and military spending all at once.
- WORST CASE: Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, and the whole macro picture changes in hours.
That last one is the REAL danger.
About a fifth of global oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and Reuters has repeatedly flagged that any disruption there can push oil sharply higher.
Now connect the dots.
- If oil spikes, inflation risk comes back FAST.
- If inflation risk comes back, yields can jump.
- If yields jump, liquidity gets low.
And when liquidity gets low, risk gets DUMPED.
That is how the dominoes start falling.
And the market is already nervous.
Reuters reported Brent had already pushed to its highest since late July before the latest escalation, while tanker costs on Middle East routes hit six-year highs as war risk grew.
That is NOT normal.
That is the market telling you the risk premium is already building before the full chain reaction even hits.
So the point is simple.
This can still end as a short shock.
But if it stretches, or if Hormuz gets hit, it becomes a completely different market.
Not a dip.
Not a fake panic.
A REAL regime shift in oil, inflation, and risk.
That is why you have to be ready for different paths, not just the one you hope for.
And yes, moments like this can create OPPORTUNITY.
But first they create CHAOS.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
If you are in Portugal and Spain, I made a special graphic for the situation in the next 1-2 weeks. Share, repost, do what you can to get the word out.
Severe flash flooding and river flooding will affect more communities in the days ahead as we remain under a nearly non-stop spell of rain carried by a series of storms.
Hundreds of millimeters of rain are still to come, with totals getting as high as 300-500+ mm in central/northern Portugal and parts of Galicia.
To repeat, this is *additional* rainfall… on top of everything that has already fallen over the past several weeks. In addition to a major flood risk, some of these storms will bring strong winds, lightning, and bouts of hail. Cleanup efforts will be affected in areas violently struck by #Kristin.
This winter is no joke. Prepare accordingly.
COMUNICAÇÕES DE EMERGÊNCIA ROBUSTAS E REDUNTANTES PARA TODO O TERRITÓRIO NACIONAL
(substituição completa do SIRESP)
🛰️Um terminal Starlink com WiFi 6 ligados a baterias de lítio, apoiadas por um gerador, por cada:
- Junta de Freguesia (3091)
- Esquadra de PSP (456)
- Posto da GNR (505)
- Quartel de Bombeiros (3200)
- Comando da Polícia Maritima (33)
- Hospital (242)
- Centro de Saúde (1140)
TOTAL: 8,667 terminais
🛰️Um terminal Starlink Mini por cada:
- Carro de bombeiro (5700)
- Ambulância (1700)
- Carro da PSP (3000)
- Carro da GNR (6500)
TOTAL: 16,900 terminais
🛰️Um terminal Iridium Go para cada:
- Presidente de Câmara Municipal (308)
- Ministro e Secretário de Estado (59)
- Comandantes Distrital/Regional/Metro da PSP (20)
- Comandante Territorial da GNR (20)
TOTAL: 407 terminais
Custo dos terminais a preço de consumidor:
. Starlink - €350
. Starlink mini - €300
. Iridiun Go - €300
Custo de baterias e geradores (exemplo EcoFlow Smart Generator 3000 a gasolina e LPG com bateria de lítio): €1000
Mensalidades a preço de consumidor:
. Starlink Residencial (edifícios) - €40 com dados ilimitados
. Starlink Roam (vehículos) - €40 com limite de dados
. Iridium Go - €100 com limite de minutos
CUSTOS TOTAIS DO SISTEMA:
. Terminais Starlink - €3,033,450
. Terminais Starlink Mini - €5,070,000
. Terminais Iridium Go - €122,000
. Pack bateria de lítio e gerador a gasolina/LPG - €8,667,000
➡️Custo Total de Aquisição de Equipamentos - €16,892,550
. Mensalidades Starlink Residencial - €346,680
. Mensalidades Starlink Roam - €676,000
. Mensalidades Iridium - €40,700
➡️Custo Total de Comunicações - €1,063,380/mês ou €12,760,560/ano
✅Sim, é assim tão simples.
✅Sim, é assim tão barato.
😎De nada.