Andrew Comstock

Foreign Policy & Finance @AmericanU & @Georgetown @EuropaSaxa Alum

[Andrew Comstock @AndrewComstock0]

Today we are joined by @itsapurdy CEO of the @ChamberlainVets , a veteran’s advocacy org. to discuss the conflict in Iran and its political fallout in the United States.
https://t.co/hKbDrAWk4h #RiversideFM

[Bruno Maçães @MacaesBruno]

The US is already in many respects more autocratic than many contemporary autocracies. Complete intolerance for free speech and debate joined by rule of propaganda institutions and media

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

I feel sorry for all these guys who are realizing for the first time that market pricing frequently isn't purely rational - it's largely political

[Craig Unger @craigunger]

1/ Last month I told a room of Baltic intelligence officers and diplomats that Donald Trump is an asset of Russian intelligence. Not one of them blinked. "Of course," they said. Ho hum. But in America, saying it out loud is still taboo. Why? 🧵

[Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled]

It’s as though Trump is trying to provoke Iran into smashing GCC oil/gas infrastructure again, the most impactful of Iran’s choices, in order to wreck the Iran-GCC rapprochement that’s been developing, a rapprochement that would likely end the US presence in the Gulf.

[Mike Bird @Birdyword]

My column this week on what Wall Street's cringemaking boosterism for the SpaceX IPO tells you about investment banking.

Comes with one of my favourite ever illustrations (I can take no credit) and one my my favourite ever subheadings (I demand the credit).

[Tommy Vietor @TVietor08]

What a deranged, despicable comment. Fuck you and your terrible organization. All you do is demand that other people fight wars for you. No one has been more disgraced and discredited than Mark Dubowitz.

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

This is a widely respected doctor held without charge since December 2024.

There is no civilized system of justice that allows for the imprisoning of people indefinitely without charge. He is a hostage, his crime was writing an oped for the New York Times.

[Drew Savicki @DrewSav]

1. Moderate Dems are struggling in primaries by offering nothing that engages people
2. Many of these moderate Dems have the charisma of a doorknob.

[Joe Guinan @joecguinan]

This is the end of U.S. diplomacy. No country can believe a word they say, ceasefires/agreements are worthless, negotiations can end in assassination and murder. Truly a rogue state, a dying superpower speed-running the process of decline. Will they take us all down with them?

[Carolina Lion @CarolinaLion2]

This was the basic premise of Operation Rolling Thunder and it didn't work when McNamara and Johnson tried it with a hell of a lot more aircraft on a much smaller land area.

[Andrew Comstock @AndrewComstock0]

“the US has front-loaded emergency responses not having expected the closure to last as long as it has and now has limited recourse after July - Presidential jawboning has made the imbalance worse as demand has not yet been impacted. Regional product shortages are being masked”

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Takeaways from spending a day with some of the smartest energy people on the planet:
🛢️ The risk of a US product export ban is real if the national average gasoline price hits ~$5/gallon
🛢️the most important questions to come up at dinner were "how does this end?" and "why would Iran give up the Strait at this point?"
🛢️base expectation broadly is the Strait will NOT reopen soon as neither party is feeling enough pressure and both sides believe they are winning - military reopening not politically palatable and lacks European buy-in (you broke it, you fix it)
🛢️I believe the Kuwaitis, Saudis, and Emiratis will NOT ship through the Strait under an Iranian toll system. Incremental workarounds underway with more to come but will take years...Strait oil exports will never reach past levels
🛢️many expect US tank bottoms in July and US SPR to approach minimum operating levels in July/August (!) - the US has front-loaded emergency responses not having expected the closure to last as long as it has and now has limited recourse after July - Presidential jawboning has made the imbalance worse as demand has not yet been impacted. Regional product shortages are being masked (bring your own jet fuel)
🛢️skepticism around available data - China believed to be drawing from SPR even though satellite data does not show and Strait voyages OUT believed to be potentially higher than reported
🛢️how long will it take for production to recover? Weeks/month for majority (~80%) for KSA, UAE, Kuwait, the last 20% is the hardest, and big question mark for Iraq (~2.9MM Bbl/d shut-in) given geology and bureaucracy
🛢️biggest reason why the expected shortage has been delayed? Chinese drop in imports of ~4.0MM Bbl/d leveraging their SPR. Much skepticism around reported demand "destruction" of 5MM Bbl/d
🛢️Net/net: bullish near-term oil price with significant frustration on price action. "New normal" ahead with energy security priority 1, 2, and 3 = increased influence of Western Hemisphere (ie. Canada if we seize it). Many oil stocks discounting <$65WTI with an expected floor price of $75-$80 in 2027+

[Don’t Boo…Revolt! @BreeNewsome]

They’re desperately trying to save the Israeli colonial project in some form or fashion

[onion person @CantEverDie]

the republican party would never vote for a staunch anti-pedophilia candidate

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

They can print and bailout just about everything, but they can't print oil

[🔻🟩🇰🇵Jamahiriya al-Juche🇰🇵🟩🔻 @ayo_platano]

“Strait still closed” is such a great comeback because that mf really is still closed

[Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸 @jimstewartson]

Elon Musk is not just a Nazi. He is actively trying to start a race war in Europe. He is using this platform to deliberately stoke violence because he is genocidally racist.

The *entire system* that elevated him to be the first trillionaire needs cleansing, eternal fire.

[Aaron Blake @AaronBlake]

“You fucked this thing up from the start,” Bongino yelled [at Bondi]. “The way you’ve been talking about this — that dumb fucking charade with the Epstein files, the ‘They’re on my desk’ nonsense, all the promises to the folks out there.”

https://t.co/8bOiqyxNsm

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

If you read one article today, it should be former CIA analyst Paul Pillar’s alarm bell of how the Senate wants to force the US to share sensitive intel with Israel at the expense of the US itself.

“In intelligence, Israel is more of an adversary than an ally. Being an adversary in intelligence means indulging in the hostile act of espionage. Israel has a long record of conducting that type of hostile act against the United States.”

https://t.co/KpdR33YrTw

[Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled]

Trump’s primary objective is his own political power/survival, and the November elections. That’s why, of all the bad choices he’s cornered himself into, he’s most comfortable manipulating the status quo: neither fullscale war nor peace, either of which will tank his presidency.