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From Morgan Stanley on #copper:
According to Reuters, China Nonferrous Association held a meeting on March 13th with 17 #copper smelters to agree on joint #copper production cuts to stem losses arising from the collapse in spot treatment charges. Based on channel checks done, there are eight smelters with already lowered feedstock since beginning of March, seven smelters that plan to do maintenance in April with total capacity at 1.21mt; eight smelters that plan to do maintenance in May with total capacity at 1.84mt; and another eight in June with total capacity of 1.56mt. For context, MS commodity team expects global refined metal output of 25.8mt.
The news highlights that concentrate supply stress that has been building in the past few months will finally start to tighten the refined #copper market. This is supportive of #copper prices, which reached an 11-month high and boosted the exposed equities.
Goldman on the link between AI data centre growth and #copper: Key linkage are the #copper requirements tied to the data centres to support AI growth. We estimate that 1GW of data centre capacity required between 40-60kt. Estimates vary on planned additions but US roughly planning to add ~8GW in 2024, 12 GW in 25 and 16GW in 2026, after 3GW in 2023. In #copper volumes that means ~200kt of demand in 23' in the US then as much 400-500kt in 24'. Using the $NVDA assumption on AI demand growth for 2030 implies we could eventually be at a level where data centres require 2-2.5Mty of #copper. This is just the #US - #China will also look to expand data centres. Alongside green demand, this should underpin healthy U.S. #copper demand growth this year and into mid-decade.
UBS has tossed its hat into the #copper ring with a bullish report, saying a "#copper supply crunch is unavoidable", with price forecast upgrades to $4.50/lb next year and $4.75/lb in 2026. The change of position was described as the bank "pivoting" towards a more constructive view on #copper since the middle of last year: "We know the market is closer to a fundamental inflection point."
"Bottom-up developments have been universally positive with material downgrades to 2024 mine production guidance pointing to limited supply growth," UBS said. "Following material cuts to mine supply, we forecast a #copper deficit in 2024 and a lack of new project approvals increases the probability of a protracted period of deficits."
#SQM has a limited future in Chile because of the new #lithium policy and needs to diversify their portfolio. Brine from the Atacama is the lowest cost route to carbonate so this isn’t a hard rock vs brine story. It is geopolitics. 頑張って下さい!
https://t.co/dMhwRTm4L4
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Pilbara Minerals is pleased to announce that Train 1 of the Lithium Hydroxide Monohydrate Chemical Facility (Chemical Facility) in Gwangyang, South Korea, has been officially opened https://t.co/ggNoK6Kw1R
Save the date for the big mining conferences stateside this December. Demo our lithium analyzers and talk to the experts! #SciAps#LIBS#XRF#analyzers#mining
https://t.co/wz7trEKZxa
Take a journey beyond what you think you know about gold and discover the element’s true contribution to societies everywhere. “Gold: A Journey With Idris Elba”—coming soon
Join us at #SciX2023! Demo XRF & LIBS analyzers and attend SciAps CTO Dave Day's presentation on "LIBS Analysis of Aerosolized Lithium Brines" on Wednesday, Oct 11. #SciAps#XRF#LIBS#analyzers
https://t.co/fzoiLxnZA9
All #lithium assets certainly aren’t created equal. Of the top ten lithium producing assets, how many are wholly Chinese owned? China is doing what they have to do to ensure future access to adequate resources. The US & EU are not. https://t.co/SFn7ooClxP