happy birthday to my beautiful, wonderful, forever-supporting, math-illiterate girlfriend who somehow pulls off every hair color and every article of clothing on the planet. this is really a poggers moment @gothbathtub
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Ironically I am actually bored to tears by Ethan Klein drama because i do not care about the personal lives of jews. I assume every single one of them rapes children until proven innocent and so benign marital problems don't faze me and this heuristic serves me very well
I was leading Heinz Ketchup when Dip N Squeeze came out.
It was a massive upgrade from ketchup packets. Consumers LOVED it.
Problem was we couldn’t get any of the big fast-food players on board.
Dip N Squeeze was 3-5x (I forget the exact numbers) more expensive than packets, and they were free for customers.
The key question was “does having Dip N Squeeze drive more volume?”, thus justifying the incremental cost.
It was nearly impossible to prove. Every penny matters to these operators, so every sales meeting was the same. “We love it, but no.”
Chick Fil A was the only yes.
They didn’t need “proof”. They operated under the assumption simply giving their customers a better experience would pay off in the long run. Incremental cost be damned.
Their conviction was impressive.
They viewed every decision thru the lens of their customer. A much different approach from the other big players.
I assume they treated countless other decisions the same way.
This was ~15 years ago. CFA has been on quite the run since.
(separate but related, I believe being a private co is a massive competitive advantage for CFA)