Yesterday, Germany named Russia as responsible for the drone attack on Leipzig-Halle Airport. Berlin summoned the Russian ambassador, ordered the consulate in Bonn to close, shut the Russian House in Berlin, and raised its national threat level.
So I went back through the record. Not the suspicions. Not the speculation. The cases that have been settled in court or formally attributed by a government.
The scales below mark cases proven in court. The columns mark cases attributed by a government.
⚖️ March 2024, London. Warehouse holding Starlink terminals for Ukraine burned down. Five convicted, up to 17 years. Ordered by Wagner via Telegram.
⚖️ May 2024, Vilnius. IKEA store set alight. A Ukrainian, 17 at the time, jailed. He acted for Russian military and security structures.
🏛️ May 2024, Warsaw. Marywilska 44 shopping centre destroyed, 1,400 units lost. Poland's Prime Minister confirmed it was arson ordered by Russian services.
⚖️ January 2025, Estonia. A supermarket and a Ukrainian restaurant torched. Two convicted. The court found the principal was tasked by the GRU.
⚖️ March 2025, Cologne. GPS-tracked parcels used to map delivery routes. A Ukrainian convicted of acting as a sabotage agent; the court found a Russian state entity initiated it.
⚖️ May 2025, London. Six Bulgarians jailed for a combined 50 years for surveillance run from a Great Yarmouth guesthouse. Targets: journalists, dissidents, Ukrainian troops.
⚖️ October 2025, Poland. Three Ukrainians convicted over a sabotage network spanning Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine and Russia.
🏛️ November 2025, Poland. Explosion on the Warsaw-Lublin railway, a route carrying aid to Ukraine. Two men working with Russian intelligence identified. Classed as terrorism.
🏛️ August 2026, Leipzig. Explosive drone found beside a Ukrainian cargo aircraft. Attributed to Russia yesterday.
Nine established cases. Six proven in court, three formally attributed by governments. Five countries. Britain in two of them.
There is also a case currently before the British courts, which I have deliberately excluded from the tally above. In July 2024 an incendiary device posted from Vilnius ignited at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham, one of four parcels sent across Europe. Fifteen people have been charged. Those proceedings are ongoing and the allegations have yet to be determined by the court.
And these nine are only the cases that have been established. There are many more besides: the plots disrupted before they landed, the cases still under investigation, the incidents no government has yet felt able to name.
This is not a series of unfortunate events. It is a campaign.
Russia is at war with the West today. Not tomorrow, not in some future scenario we can plan for at leisure. Today.
We need to respond as though we understand that, and defend ourselves and our democracies accordingly.
It is fair to say that neither Ukraine nor Russia is winning the war.
For Zelenskyy, this is good news: only yesterday, many were predicting his defeat. For Putin, it is bad news: no one seriously believes anymore that he is winning.
Yet Putin does not want to end the war. He seems to have five basic choices, but after four years of full-scale war, his core problem is clear: none of them gives him a guaranteed result.
A technological breakthrough? It takes time and offers no guarantee of a success.
A tactical breakthrough? Ukraine may adapt faster than Russia can turn it into strategic gain.
Mobilization? The Kremlin’s cheapest instrument, but one that raises the domestic cost of war.
A new theater of war? It may shift attention, but it does not guarantee a quick victory.
Nuclear weapons? Shock effect, but with uncontrollable consequences for Moscow itself.
So he will most likely do what he does best: buy time. He will move, in fragments, along the first four tracks and keep threatening the fifth.
Ukraine’s options remain unchanged: strike deeper, defend the sky, and strengthen resilience at home — politically, financially, and militarily. This has worked so far. It can keep working.
Elon, how can there be a free, fair election that represents the will of the people if 6m Ukrainians are out of the country as refugees, 3.5m more are under illegal Russian occupation, martial law is in operation (prohibiting elections) and Putin’s bombing the crap out of them?
Please support @andyjameslewis and @dmitri_mcl running the #AirDefenceMarathon in London today, including stops in Lewisham bombed during WWII. JustGiving link for more info and to donate here: https://t.co/gxtIM14TyG
Three runners doing the 37-mile 'Air Defence Marathon' on Sun 8th Sep will be stopping at WWII V2 rocket sites in Lewisham to commemorate the victims, as well as those in Ukraine today.
They are hoping to raise £15k for Ukraine.
More details - including how to donate - below!
The Air Defence Marathon is setting off from Stavely Road at 9:30am on the 8th of September, to mark the 80th anniversary of the first V2 rocket attack on London. You can find out more information here: https://t.co/ThrvYEL6OS
On 8 September, and on 80th anniversary of first V2 rocket attack on UK, a group of us will be doing a commemorative marathon around London, raising funds for Ukrainian air defence units. For further details, please see https://t.co/GgJP60Qpc4 - please donate and spread the word!
Good morning folks!
🇬🇧🇺🇦 On September 8, @Dmitri_Mcl will be running an Air Defence Marathon around London with his two fellow runners. Please spread the word and support them, if you can
https://t.co/jkMjCnG2me
Please read if you want to understand the stakes right now in Ukraine. The attack on the country's civilian infrastructure right now, this week, is the worst since the war began
Two years. We are all here 🇺🇦
Together with representatives of Algeria, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Egypt, Estonia, the EU, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, the Holy See, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Korea, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, the Netherlands, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Norway, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sudan, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Thailand, Türkiye, the UAE, the United Kingdom, the USA, Viet Nam, as well as international organisations, the WHO, WFP, EUMAM, the UN system, IBRD, EIB, ILO, ICRC, IOM, NATO, OSCE, CoE, UNDP, UNFPA, FAO, UNHCR, UNOCHA, UNICEF, and others.
Quite something to complain about how not enough American journalists are reporting on the Russian side of Putin's invasion of Ukraine when two of them – Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva – are *in jail right now* for doing just that
I wish our 2023 World Ironman Champion @LucyAnneCharles was on this list 😢 dedicated, resilient, inspirational - a true British sporting great has been overlooked! 🇬🇧
🥇🏃♀️🚴♀️🏊🏻♀️
The BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2023 contenders!
🌟 Stuart Broad
🌟 Frankie Dettori
🌟 Mary Earps
🌟 Alfie Hewett
🌟 Katarina Johnson-Thompson
🌟 Rory McIlroy
Watch the awards on @BBCOne & @BBCiPlayer - Tuesday, 19 December 2023 from 19:00 GMT.
#BBCSPOTY
@DespoticInroad@grumpenprol@laidlaw_stuart @brianhprobert @paulmasonnews To be legitimate, this would need to be organised between Ukraine and the UN, something the occupying Russian forces would never cooperate with. Unfortunately, they will need to be removed from Crimea by force, or pre-emptively retreat back to Russia under the threat of force.
@DespoticInroad@grumpenprol@laidlaw_stuart @brianhprobert @paulmasonnews Not 'exact opposite' result - not directly comparable as they are asking different questions at different points in time (earlier one is about status within USSR, later one is about wanting to become independent of the USSR). Anyway, can both agree Russia invading Ukraine is bad.
@DespoticInroad@laidlaw_stuart @brianhprobert @paulmasonnews In that 1991 referendum, Crimea voted to be part of an independent Ukraine with 54.19% of votes in favour (regional stats in link Brian posted).
@Tomthescribe I’ve found the Ukrainian Lessons Podcast series to be an incredibly helpful resource, 30 min themed episodes, caters to all levels (series 1 is basic, then builds up through successive series) 🇺🇦
https://t.co/OuAoOYrOHX
@BBCSounds Jonathan Pie going on RT and taking Kremlin cash in 2015 when Russia had already annexed Crimea, killed thousands in Donbas, and shot down MH17 in 2014 is unforgiveable.
Not that he ever sought forgiveness, or said sorry.
Don't understand how people find him funny.