I am very excited to share that my new book — #STELLAR: A WORLD BEYOND LIMITS, AND HOW TO GET THERE — co-authored with my good friend @jamiearbib, is out on March 18th.
Its aims are to explain the ‘extractive’ world we live in currently, set out a vision for the extraordinary #StellarWorld that is now possible, and provide a guide through the increasing turbulence that we’re experiencing because of this ongoing #transformation.
It is the most important thing I have ever written, and I am looking forward to sharing it with you all. ✨ 📖
NIO delivered 14 cars in the Netherlands in January
The Netherlands is a key European market for many Chinese EV makers. The delivery numbers for January are in, and NIO had a bad month. The Chinese EV maker delivered 14 cars, which was 6 less than in December.
January: 10.
February: 20.
March: 21.
April: 22.
May: 20.
June: 14.
July: 41.
August: 22.
September: 21.
October: 11
November: 11.
December: 20.
January: 14.
Model breakdown for January with December in ():
EL6 SUV: 1 (6).
EL7 SUV: 0 (0).
EL8 SUV: 3 (1).
ET5/ET5T sedan/wagon: 4 (6).
ET7 sedan: 6 (7).
[Comment:] NIO's sales in the Netherlands are still way too low compared to what the company is investing in the country, and in January sales went down even further. Even the EL6, the best-seller so far, found only one buyer.
The reasons for the slow sales are unchanged: NIO is an expensive brand, doubts about the added value of the swapping network, uncertainty about tariffs, and no all-new models since 2023. It is yet unsure of the ET9 will come to Europe any time soon. But even if it did, it won't be a big seller as it will be even more expensive than the other cars in NIO's lineup.
The swapping network hasn't expanded since December. NIO has 59 swapping stations in five European countries. [/comment]
@NIOGlobal@NIO_Worldwide@NIOAdmirer@NIOSwitzerland@NioInvestment@NIOSwitzerland @NIOEnthusiast @DelhayePhilipp5 #NIO $NIO
I don't see it that way.
Autonomy is a battle of two different technologies - one that uses brute force, ie LIDAR, radar, ultrasonics, HD maps, and a host of other sensors all together in one complex package.
This solution works as long as you spend a lot of time and effort overfitting for a geographic area. The positive is that it works today. The negative is that you can only serve a very tiny fraction of the population, and roll out is super slow and cumbersome.
Each time you roll out in a new geography, it requires new maps, new knowledge, new overfitting, etc.
The other technology is end to end neural nets. The negative is that it's a novel way of solving for autonomy. You are taking billions of dollars of training compute and inference compute to teach an AI how to drive. This takes a large amount of time and upfront engineering effort to get it to work. It always requires a massive amount of new knowledge and experimentation.
The positive is that the sensor suite required to operate said vehicles is a fraction of the other technology - in Tesla's case, 8 cameras and an inference computer. At most $2k worth of additional parts, vs $100k+ for a competeing Waymo.
Once this is solved, the player with the AI technology (ie Tesla) can crank out millions of units per year at 1/4th or less the cost of a competitor. And since they are vertically integrated, they release said units into the wild with an app.
There's 0 incentive for Tesla, or anyone with this technology, to partner with an Uber or whoever else, as they would be giving up a gigantic amount of pricing power and leverage due to their massive scale.
If a player with an AI solution doesn't exist, I can see your outcome. However, the likeliest scenario is that the AI solution will exist, and will exist soon.
In this world, winner takes all, unless competitors invest the same level of $ and effort into building their proprietary self-driving models (or license from the winner). As far as I know, no one's close to Tesla's investments and autonomous miles using AI.
Breaking:
Tesla introduces the new model Y.
It can now be ordered in Europe.
Nearly five years ago, the first Model Ys were delivered to their owners; the beginning of a global success story. Today Tesla introduces the new Model Y.
The interior and exterior of the new Model Y have been completely redesigned to maximize efficiency, comfort, connectivity and safety.
A detailed thread:
Starlink skeptics kept telling me it wouldn't provide worldwide access because it was priced for the US.
I just saw this article that compares Starlink vs competitors in a number of african nations showing it's now cheaper than local providers in many places
https://t.co/cA7ks6kzSc
Battery cost declines march on. And I think just as the world wakes up to the declines, it is no longer as important.
Battery cost declines were critical for making EVs feasible, but now autonomous is changing the model.
Battery costs still matter, but no longer critical imo.
And shout out to BNEF for the great work they do on these cost declines as well.