stevenmarkryan

Daily videos for $TSLA & $SPCX investors — and fans of common sense.
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[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

Just Updated:

My 20 Year Tesla & SpaceX Valuation Model 🚀

Options:

• Model Snapshot - Fan level & above
• Full Model (view only) - Investor level & above
• Full Model (editable) - Baller level

More info & direct link to Model Snapshot here:

https://t.co/wdbcDxIIm8

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

@SpaceX GAWD that sounds good.

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

@shaunmmaguire Yes.

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

@KatieMiller The target audience was unemployed reddit users who never leave their parents' basement and have no money.

It was always going to be a tough sell.

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

Bro honestly WHAT THE FUCK 😂😂😂

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Here is more new info about what comes and doesn't come with each next-gen Tesla Roadster trim (subject to change):

Performance trim:
• Dihedral doors with removable roof panels
• Active Track Mode
• Active aerodynamics (wings and barge boards)
• Powered aerodynamics (fan and skirt system)
• Hidden aerodynamics
• Individually controlled brake corner actuation
• Multi-mode fan suction and ground-sealing system
• Carbon-ceramic brakes
• Spool valve adaptive dampers
• Dual ride height and wheel rates separate road and track behavior: Stiffness more than triples, Ride height drops up to 40mm
• Lightweight wheels
• Fixed seat base with adjustable recline
• Adjustable pedal bay
• Select manual controls
• 0–60 mph: Under 1.6 seconds
• Top speed: Over 210 mph
• Peak acceleration: Over 1.5g
• Peak power: Over 1 MW
• Peak motor torque: Over 1,400 Nm
• EPA range: Over 300 miles
• Seats: 2
• Yoke steering
• Rear wing
• Steer-by-wire and brake-by-wire

Not included on Performance trim:
• No rocket thrusters
• No carbon-overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs)
• No rocket-assisted acceleration
• No gold-tinted glass (Thrust/Rocket only)
• No Supersonic interior package (Thrust/Rocket only)
• No Ano White exterior paint (Rocket only)

Thrust trim:
• 0–60 mph: Under 0.9 seconds
• Top speed: Over 230 mph
• Peak power: Over 1 MW
• Peak motor torque: Over 1,400 Nm
• EPA range: Over 300 miles
• Seats: 2

Thrust Includes everything on Performance, plus:
• 1 carbon-overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV)
• 4 rear rocket thrusters for acceleration
• Electric Optimus actuators
• Rocket-assisted acceleration
• Gold-tinted glass
• Supersonic interior package, which includes: Ultrawhite interior, Gray microsuede detailing, Microsuede seat bolsters, Yoke with two smaller forward displays

Not included on Thrust trim:
• No second COPV
• No 4 downward lift-control thrusters
• No 2 side yaw-control thrusters
• No Ano White exterior paint

Rocket trim:
• 0–60 mph: Under 0.59 seconds
• Peak acceleration: Over 5g
• Top speed: Over 230 mph
• Peak power: Over 1 MW
• Peak motor torque: Over 1,400 Nm
• Peak thrust: Over 80 kN
• EPA range: Over 300 miles
• Seats: 1
• Supersonic interior package, which includes: Ultrawhite interior, Gray microsuede detailing, Microsuede seat bolsters, Yoke with two smaller forward displays

Includes applicable Performance and Thrust features, plus:
• 2 carbon-overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs)
• 10 total thrusters (4 rear thrusters for acceleration, 4 downward perimeter thrusters for lift control, 2 side thrusters for yaw control)
• All-electric Optimus actuators
• Ano White exterior paint with UV and cryogenic protection, electrostatic dissipation, and corrosion resistance
• Gold-tinted glass

Keep in mind that production doesn't start until 2028, so final specs, trims, features, etc, are subject to change. No pricing has been given.

More info in Ryan's post below.

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

► Flying Roadster Shirt (Limited Edition) https://t.co/qEB9rCBWZ4

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

Love seeing people wearing the merch!

Even cooler with Tesla Semis in the background 💪

Thanks again to everyone for the support.

[Zanzamar @Zanzamar555]

@stevenmarkryan Yo Steven! Thanks for the cool shirt! I was just touring the Nevada Semi factory while wearing your design. Also got the chance to meet Optimus robot in action. And i CAN confirm that the Cybercab is probably the most comfortable car Ive ever sat in!

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

► Flying Roadster Shirt (Limited Edition) https://t.co/qEB9rCBWZ4

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

The Flying RDSTR tee has been a big hit! 💪

Thanks for the support Sean and thanks to everyone else who has picked one up too!

[Sean Goodall @MrSeanGoodall]

@stevenmarkryan it arrived! Love this shirt! Get one at https://t.co/U7GZ7vFVlj

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

@MrSeanGoodall SICK SHIRT! 💪

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

What is the "fair" merger ratio for Tesla & SpaceX?

1.
I have NO IDEA what I am talking about.

2.
The "fair" ratio is educated guesswork, not science. Both Tesla and SpaceX have massive levers that could swing either company's value dramatically. Uncertainty is high.

I've modeled Tesla & SpaceX over 20 years (Patreon subs can see the "fair" merger ratio from the full model).

3.
My model says SpaceX is the more valuable of the two. I would take a much higher SpaceX ratio than I think most Tesla investors would accept.

So what I think is "fair" vs what would actually NEED to be offered are two different things.

Change just a few assumptions in my 20-year model and the "fair" ratio can shift meaningfully in either direction. That's how uncertain this is.

My guess (remember, I do NOT KNOW WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT) is we land at 50/50. That would, as I write this, be a big premium for Tesla (approx 35% vs current, and approx $500/share).

The reason for this 50/50 guess is less retarded than you might think. Splitting them down the middle looks like a cheap shortcut, but it can be justified when your model can easily swing the "fair" value of either entity by 10% or more in either direction, which is absolutely the case for mine. Tweak a few assumptions and I can land at 70/30, 60/40, 55/45, 45/55, 40/60, whatever.

Then you still have to figure out how much extra value each company actually gains through unification. And I'm not talking the usual retard-in-a-suit "conglomerate discount" bullshit. I mean real, tangible value from shared assets, data, talent, supply chain, bulk buying, shared facilities, operational efficiency, faster execution etc. What is the net benefit to the new combined entity? Another 5%? 10%?

We now have a margin of error of what? 25%? 35%?
Bottom line, 50/50 is the overlap between all possible variations.

4.
Don't forget: I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT.

5.
None of us do.

Those interested can see my full valuation model here (investor level and above), including the current estimated fair merger ratio (calculated automatically from the assumptions for each line of business at both Tesla and SpaceX) plus some modeling of merger synergies:

https://t.co/3k4XAvMSgY

Better yet, build your own model. Figure out what you think the fair ratio would be, then be honest about your degree of uncertainty and how wide a band that puts around your number.

Also remember that you are retarded, and I am retarded and we have not built reusable rockets, or developed FSD etc.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@stevenmarkryan You are one of the most bullish believers, would love to know your Yes vote price.

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

SOURCE:
◆ https://t.co/Vy6oHYnCgA

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

The Tesla SpaceX Merger Debate

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

SUPPORT:
► Flying Roadster Shirt (Limited Edition) https://t.co/iNPC2hMDH7
► SpaceX & Tesla 20 Year Valuation Model https://t.co/ljZDYHsKLh
► AG1 https://t.co/Cq0USm247U (FREE Welcome Kit: Vitamin D3+K2 & Travel Packs)
► Browse Merch! https://t.co/Z2XcYQ86mP
► Want More Content? Join Patreon: https://t.co/ljZDYHsKLh
► Subscribe on X (early access to daily videos): https://t.co/FwLjgtvE42

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

@elonmusk Looking forward to the international rollout 😂

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

@Zanzamar555 If anyone wants their own: https://t.co/qEB9rCBWZ4

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

SpaceX & Tesla Merger Is NOT A Sure Thing

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

@Zanzamar555 Look siiiiiiiick!!! 💪 Thanks for sharing.

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

@nerdalert The only thing required to understand we are extremely early is a modicum of biological intelligence.