Playa Capital

Compounding,but always learning.“If you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart.If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35,you have no brain”

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

AI infra can and will retrace.
Every pullback will have the bubble boys victory lapping because they missed the greatest trade in decades.

Then they’ll watch it rip higher again in great agony.

[Citrini @citrini]

People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable.

A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations.

The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around.

Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets.

But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

Respect!

[Ari Meirov @MySportsUpdate]

Aaron Rodgers, holding nothing back, explains why he doesn’t trust anyone in government — right or left — and believes it’s all a sham.

“There is no MAGA movement. The guy you elected hasn’t done any of his campaign promises. ... When Obama was president, it was, ‘There will be hope and change for a better world.’ Has anything in the Black community gotten significantly better?”

(📽️ @NotJustFootball with @CamHeyward)

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

Isn’t it amazing Trump is begging for lower rates when his self inflicted wounds like tariffs and the dumb war are the main causes of the bad data…I voted for the guy, but his second term is a mess.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@EricBalchunas Because no one wants to top tick, and been wrong about it for weeks if not months. Me included...

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@rennyzucker Fair enough, he doesn't seem like the flashy type to spend like MC Hammer IMO...

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@rennyzucker He had $43M just in career earnings, plus big sponsorship deals with Nike etc, even if he had some of it with the most boring wealth advisor he has to have much more...

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@matthew_sigel @BillAckman Matthew, this could have and should have been scheduled for earlier. Just because there is precedent doesn’t make it right. Why don’t they schedule superbowl for 10 pm ET?

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@dRiskDave As a shareholder I definitely want him on the board, for the exact reasons you stated, he has a lot of lobbying power. Like him or not. Same for US related business too. This compensation issue should and will be remedied, that is the number 1 concern.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@PythiaR @Franny8 You mean not allowed as in not available yet, or not confirming to some crazy regulation there?

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@TomerHacohen @TeslaBoomerMama I agree with your ratio suggestion, and I think it will happen in the next 45 days max.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@TheYachtWriter What do you think of the exterior design? Tough to look at IMO.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

Thanks for the reply. SpaceX doesn’t literally “need” a higher market cap in order to offer Tesla $2 T. It could offer $2 T while SpaceX is worth $1.5 T. There’s nothing mathematically preventing it. Unless we believe that they want a merger of equals scenario and they want to offer a healthy premium for Tesla then a SPCX valuation close to $2.5 T would be helpful obviously.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@thebtcpharaoh @DavidFBailey From the beginning my only issue (back then) with Metaplanet was David's involvement with it. His post today proves one more time why...

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

I’m watching November 15 and December 6 for Tesla.

December 6 marks 13 months since the last annual meeting. It isn’t a hard deadline, but shareholders who previously requested a meeting can then seek a court order.

If Tesla held a merger vote on December 6, formal notice would need to go out by November 15 under Texas’s 21 day rule. An S4 incorporating information by reference would require 20 business days, meaning earlier delivery.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@thejefflutz Bringing manufacturing back home and this is immensely different things. It's amazing how bad the execution been. I can't believe not one person with manufacturing and supply chain know-how is explaining this to the POTUS.

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@Franny8 They couldn't have done a worse job even if they were incentivized to do so....

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@TomerHacohen @TeslaBoomerMama Besides optics why do you think they need stock price to stabilize? I mean I agree it makes life easier with a higher $SPCX market cap....

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@pitdesi Model training safeguards have nothing to do with building more data centers though…

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@jnconkle @dollarbob01 Nothing wrong with grabbing life by the disk for the summer!

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@jnconkle @dollarbob01 There is no one better at Fintwit and substack du jour than you😂

[Playa Capital @playacapital]

@blondesnmoney Bravo…