Franny

Just going to yap here so i don't annoy my wife with stock talk.

[Franny @Franny8]

https://t.co/hTMy25xjVj

[Franny @Franny8]

Here's my main issue with them, and I'm inclined to believe that the tape shares this view as well.

1. Zuck has proven to be a poor capital allocator in the past.

2. The ROI is murky; the fact that we're having this debate proves it on some level.

3. AI was already their magic sauce: ranking, algorithms, and cheap, scalable code. How does gen AI help here?

3b. Sure, you can use gen AI to create an ad campaign, great, but do they need to engage in an arms race for this?

4. No clear vision, poor execution. (Even more glaring when compared to Anthropic and OpenAI.)

5. End of the day, $META is a leveraged bet on the consumer.

5b. If AI is truly transformative, then ad spend will be in trouble.

6. This seems like a winner-take-all race, and $META seems behind. Where's their Codex? Claude Code? Cowork?

Too many unknowns. It will be cheap on forward estimates and continue to be hard to believe in this story.

[Franny @Franny8]

@Divergent7651 Or just buy $DRAM

[Franny @Franny8]

Going to double down on this call, mags 7 will continue to underperform throughout the rest of the year.

AI ROI is unknown, why be most overweight the companies taking ROI risk?

lack of bid on the mags make sense, “cheap on forward earnings.”
But forward earnings assume the old regime still holds high margins, dominant distribution, controlled disruption, and AI as upside optionality.

capex-heavy businesses where the payoff is uncertain, competition rises, and only a few winners capture the economics.

Who actually earns the AI profit pool after spending hundreds of billions to build it? What if you bet on the losing horse?

Don't even get me started on the opportunity cost.

[Franny @Franny8]

Mega caps/mag 7 have done so well for so long, that i feel like market participants are reflexively applying previous valuation frame works, in a structurally different environment.
Every dip triggers the same muscle memory "it's cheap on forward earnings, buy it." But we are not in a normal market cycle.

AI is a genuinely disruptive technology, but it is creating a paradox, the very disruption these companies are funding can erode their own business models and the macro environment that supports their valuations. These stocks will keep looking cheap on paper , and they'll keep getting cheaper because the multiples investors are anchoring to were set in a regime where AI was pure upside optionality, not an active force reshaping the customer base, the labor market, and the competitive landscape simultaneously

$MSFT benefits from AI but also sells seats to the white-collar workers AI displaces

$META is fundamentally a leveraged bet on the consumer economy, no amount of improved ad targeting matters if the macro deteriorates and businesses pull ad budgets

$GOOGL IMO has the strongest position but shares Meta's ad-revenue exposure ,but will get sold mechanically within the basket when concentration unwinds regardless of its individual merit.

$NVDA has been flat for around 6 months or so the market may be telling you this is a capex cycle top, and the old adage applies: you sell cyclicals when they look cheap, not when they look expensive. (bit ironic from me since i own $SNDK and $MU i just don't think we are at peak just yet, I'm usually wrong though)

But if AI doesn't deliver? If the disruption underwhelms? Then these companies just lit $600+ billion in a single year on fire?

They need AI to be disruptive enough to justify the spend but not so disruptive that it destroys their own economics. They need to thread a needle where AI transforms everyone else's business model while leaving theirs intact.

and I'm not sure if we thread the needle here, i do not think it is as disruptive people think. The more you use it the more faults you see, amazing technology still and i cannot imagine life without it currently and I'm price agnostic, but this is coming from a place of privilege.

[Franny @Franny8]

@Divergent7651 Been long $SNDK and $MU since nov last year but i would be doing you a disservice by saying to buy these names right now.

If any 10-15% pull back on these names tune out the noise and buy, it's my view that AI agents are just getting started, higher.

I also like $WDC, $STX

[Franny @Franny8]

@PorcellianView @ContrarianCurse Ads ripping is just industry beta.
Ads are also ripping for $RDDT and $APP

Without the cap ex hole.

Dont mistake the tailwind of an election year for more gen ai spend == better ads.

I still have yet to get a good answer how gen ai improves Ads over deterministic code.

[Franny @Franny8]

@PorcellianView @ContrarianCurse Ads ripping is just industry beta.
Ads are also ripping for $RDDT and $APP

Without the cap ex hole.

Dont mistake the tailwind of an election year for more gen ai spend == better ads.

I still have yet to get a good answer how gen ai improves Ads over deterministic code.

[Franny @Franny8]

@steve2bacon Grats on the first 6 figure lost day.

[Franny @Franny8]

Edit the toml file to stop permission fatigue.

Create a context folder (this will act like long term memory in a sense)

Have the agents.md reference the context folder.

Whatever annoys you or that it forgets tell it to update the agents.md and memory(s).md inside of the context folder.

But yeah these things are like very gifted interns

[Franny @Franny8]

@valuedrift Not fin advice but imma put on this trade with size i think.

The float from SPCX is small enough for a squeeze.

I think $TSLA liquidity for sure dries up

[Franny @Franny8]

When i posted this the core names were extended it felt like.

Most of them higher.

I feel like we cool off soon.

But the AI trade is not done yet we got 1-2 more years of this is my guess

[Franny @Franny8]

I meant to put this out end of April (you can tell by some of the references)

Core trade
$MU, $STX, $WDC, $SNDK, $CRDO, $MRVL, $ALAB, $SIMO, $BE, $ARM, $LITE, $AMD, $VRT, $DDOG, $POWL.

The anchor and watch sleeve is:
$NVDA, $AVGO, $GLW, $COHR, $PANW, and $P.
But please read the whole thing

The first part is fairly raw why i kind of just didnt publish it
Also on here
https://t.co/Hhp7PSJdiB

[Franny @Franny8]

@iBladesi Got bagged by it on IPO day/week
😅

Don't know why i still have 10 shares of it just realized.

[Franny @Franny8]

Jeez $AVGO getting killed post print.

Hurting the PA AH.

I don't appreciate that

[Franny @Franny8]

@iBladesi @blondesnmoney 🫂

[Franny @Franny8]

@ConnorJBates_ 🫡

[Franny @Franny8]

What a day.

$SNDK

[Nick Sortor @nicksortor]

🚨 TILLIS TO BESSENT: Did you tell Director Pulte you’d punch him in the face?

BESSENT: “No sir — I actually said I was going to kick his ASS!”

LMAOOOO ☠️

[Franny @Franny8]

@prometheuus0 @HunterFor2028 He on pace for a generational run

[Franny @Franny8]

He already a top poster on here.

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

@JaulaDePerreo How about “Let’s take another crack with a Biden.” Needs work but the possibilities are endless.

[Franny @Franny8]

@blondesnmoney Which image gen model you use for these?

[Franny @Franny8]

$MSFT is going to round trip it seems.

$AMZN fades daily.

$META going to chop then head lower.

$GOOGL is going to chop/grind lower.

$AAPL i like apple but boring name.

$TSLA on a clock will tank after spaceX IPO.

$NVDA is a king maker for everyone but itself.

Going to keep baning against mag 7.

Might take a trade on these names for something quick but no conviction to go long these names.

Small account but hopefully providing to someone

Been a hater all year and continue to hate.
https://t.co/tMlCsRR58H