Chris

i program, dms are open
founder @getiosis

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

access it at https://t.co/oFqZMsaWfC. make an api key, give it to your agent and break things.

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

🤦‍♂️

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

Damn, I have 0 incentive to keep my platform open or sell any part of it for 10-50$ a month. I should probably 10-100x pricing (even with 0 users) so that the ev of maintaining such a niche product for outside users is positive.

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

@JackedTechBro @hiiinternet Those markets have too little volume for traditional quants to care.

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

Merit this, merit that, what even is merit?

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

@MarroSamuele Does distillation sufficiently level the playing field? The crossbow worked because you could train a peasant in a couple afternoons to kill knights. With distillation you still must:
- Pay for tokens
- Pay for compute
There is a lot of asymmetry but is it enough?

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

Policy > Ideology

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

@sriramkri Some markets are ok but the problem is that it is marketed as a way to be rich and bet on sports rather than superforecasting.

[rvivek @rvivek]

One of the best bubble indicators from @pmarca -- where Harvard and Stanford MBAs go after graduation.

If they go into tech → market’s overblown.
If they go back to banking → great time to invest in startups.

Social status of MBAs is a good bubble indicator. Cool trivia!

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

Jev is so based

[Oliver Traldi @olivertraldi]

Astonishing how many posts like this there are about Tao, someone with no apparent arrogance who has spent his life sharing his gifts with the world.

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

Burns money on ETFs.
Raises hundreds of millions in 8 weeks.
Staff start shitposting more frequently to drive engagement.
Gets cooked.

Play the long game

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

TLDR: Strong evidence of wash trading on Kalshi.

This is brutal. Kalshi commits fraud and PM has technical problems. 💔

[wassieloyer @wassielawyer]

Think this Twitter spat just created a DEFON 1 emergency situation at Kalshi and prob cost them 10 figs on their valuation lmao.

They are CFTC regulated and prob got there via spending a lot of money greasing the right palms inc Don Jr. A lot of political incentive to go after them now.

If this blows up, Jump prob pulls the liquidity too. Jump can fuck around with shady volume-for-upside deals when nobody’s looking, but it stops being +EV when all eyes are on you and the regulators might come sniffing.

Crazy to see bc @icobeast is obv a smart guy and was prob just playing the crypto game and toeing party line to bullpost Kalshi but damn just goes to show the dangers of fucking around with an autist with a grudge.

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

@willchen500 The issue is that the labs can just gatekeep you and compete with you with 10x the funding, better models, arguably better staff and researchers, etc. I don’t see how one could create an AI financial advisor and not believe that Anthropic and OpenAI would not snipe you.

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

@vaibhavbetter The notion that somehow moats have vanished is self defeating.

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

@willchen500 There is also the fact that universities kind of like the crackpot kid who taught themselves how to code and built interesting things from a technical POV (provided they are also decent at math and have decent overall grades).

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

Capability and utility are not the same.

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

the real power law. guess which task involves rust?

[Chris @animaginarynumb]

VC is a keynesian beauty contest. I wonder what level of thinking the average partner at any given firm is at.