You can usually tell when someone has no clue what they're talking about when they describe #LOAC in vague terms like "how many civilian deaths were deemed acceptable" or "doesn't make the deaths proportionate."
Those of us who DO know what we're talking about - especially those like me with extensive practical experience - know better than to talk about LOAC in such abstract terms. We don't talk like that because we don't think like that - and we don't think like that because we know what we're doing.
This post by @Bushra1Shaikh is a perfect example of complete LOAC ignorance, from beginning to end. Let's take a closer look at what she said to see exactly why that is.
"A proportionality assessment does not automatically make a strike proportionate."
- No shit. But this assertion misses the point about a "proportionality assessment" at the outset.
As you can see from the attached image, which is an excerpt from an info paper published in Nov 2023 @IsraelMFA, pursuant to the LOAC proportionality rule "it is prohibited to carry out an attack when the EXPECTED incidental [damage] would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage that is ANTICIPATED from the attack."
Notice the 2 words typed in all caps there. As a matter of doctrine, a "proportionality assessment" involves evaluating the EXPECTED incidental damage and the ANTICIPATED concrete & direct military advantage. The only way this rule is violated is if the person(nel) responsible for the attack EXPECT the incidental damage to be excessive in relation to the concrete & direct military advantage ANTICIPATED and they launch the attack ANYWAY.
If the expected incidental damage is NOT excessive IRT the c&d mil advantage anticipated, then the attack is, by definition, "proportionate."
The reason this point can't be emphasized enough is that the ONLY way to assess whether a particular attack complied with the LOAC proportionality rule is to have access to the knowledge & intent of the person(nel) responsible for EACH attack AT THE TIME. If you don't have access to that information, you don't know for certain what degree of incidental damage was EXPECTED & what degree of concrete & direct military advantage was ANTICIPATED at the time.
In short, if you can't establish those factors, you're not conducting a doctrinal proportionality assessment. Instead, all you're doing is blowing hot air.
Here's the thing. Bushra isn't alone in blowing hot air here. For all this talk about all these "human rights NGOs" & scholars who are routinely held up as "evidence" that @Israel is responsible for "genocide" in #Gaza, they almost always adopt the same bullshit, effects-based methodology for "evaluating" compliance with the LOAC proportionality rule. Then the supposed persistent failure to comply is presented as one bit of evidence of gEnOcIdE.
It's all a hoax, and it has been from the outset. There is one - and only one - way to evaluate compliance with the LOAC rule in doctrine. And waving your hand & claiming "a proportionality assessment does not automatically make a strike proportionate" ain't it.
That's because there is no such thing as a "disproportionate" strike. In practice, and in reality, there are strikes that comply with the LOAC proportionality rule & those that don't.
And if you aren't presenting evidence that the person(nel) involved EXPECTED the incidental damage to be excessive in relation to the concrete & direct military advantage ANTICIPATED at the time AND they authorized or engaged in the attack anyway, then all you're doing is blowing hot air. Just like Bushra is here.
Of course, I've only addressed here a doctrinal publication describing how @IDF implements the LOAC proportionality rule. But this articulation is substantially similar to that found in Additional Protocol I + the Rome Statute (neither of which 🇮🇱 has ratified) & other military organizations such as the 🇺🇸 DoW. The specific wording is slightly different depending on the source, but the doctrinal rule is remarkably consistent - so no need to belabor the slight nuances regarding specific wording & such here.
"It does not prove the intelligence was lawful."
- Um...wut? How is intelligence "un"lawful? This claim is so ignorant it hurts my brain just thinking about it. So ... moving on.
"It does not prove civilians were adequately protected."
- Ah, one of my least favorite of all the popular misunderstandings of LOAC. No matter how many activist groups like ICRC, HRW, Amnesty, etc. claim otherwise, there is NO obligation to "protect" civilians in armed conflict.
This is simply a clever attempt to convert LOAC from a process based to an effects based construct.
Think about it. If there is an obligation to "protect" civilians & then there is an alleged or actual incident of civilian harm, it's easy to create the perception that the relevant LOAC obligation was violated.
This is also a hoax. As a suitable example regarding how "protection" actually works, consider the "basic rule" articulated in AP I art. 48: "In order to ensure respect for and PROTECTION of the civilian population and civilian objects, the Parties to the conflict shall at all times distinguish between the civilian population and combatants and between civilian objects and military objectives and accordingly shall direct their operations ONLY against military objectives" (not pictured)
If you read this provision closely, what it's telling us is that "protection" of the civilian population is achieved by complying with LOAC obligations.
What it's NOT telling us is that there is an obligation to "adequately protect" civilians. This is a misrepresentation presented in the forum of public discourse by humanitarian activists attempting to convert LOAC into an effects-based construct or by those who simply don't know any better.
I'll leave it to you to assess in which camp you think Bushra is in, but fwiw my guess is it's the latter.
"And it certainly does not prove that Israel has complied with international humanitarian law in every case."
- Actually, the onus is on those claiming 🇮🇱 is NOT complying with LOAC "in every case" to demonstrate THAT.
If you trace this 🧵a bit, you'll notice Bushra is quoting a post from @IsraelWarRoom, who is in turn quoting a previous post from her (one that I also recently quoted), and in that OP Bushra claims IDF operations in Gaza represent a "murderous system" because "'collateral damage'" is "quantified and accepted as part of the operation."
You'll also note that OP is referring to the "NAZA" documentary that's generating a lot of hype at the moment.
I'm sure I'll have way more to say about NAZA in due course, but for now I'll just leave it at this.
The burden of proof is on those responsible for NAZA, and those claiming that documentary demonstrates IDF routinely fails to comply with LOAC, to support their allegation(s) with (actual) evidence - on every single occasion.
Otherwise, LOAC becomes merely a rhetorical tool for (geo)political messaging for those seeking to denounce 🇮🇱 for ... something, anything, for ideological or other purposes. If you're out there claiming IDF personnel have violated LOAC even ONCE, it's on YOU to articulate the doctrinal standard you believe was violated then present evidence that actually proves your allegation.
If you can't do that, once again you're merely blowing hot air - as Bushra here seems so fond of doing.
"In fact, if Israeli military insiders are describing a system where expected civilian deaths are calculated before a strike, that raises the exact question they are trying to avoid:
How many civilian deaths were deemed acceptable before the bomb was dropped? 10? 50? 100? 200?"
- I'm sorry, I can't read this passage without literally lol, and I've read it several times now simply for the entertainment value.
Seriously. If "Israeli military insiders are describing a system where expected civilian deaths are calculated before a strike," they're describing a system that complies with the LOAC proportionality rule as it exists in doctrine!! 😅😂🤣🤣😂😅
I'm not an Israeli military insider, but I DID stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. And I can tell you for certain that "describing a system where expected civilian deaths are calculated before a strike" absolutely does NOT raise a question Israeli military insiders might try to avoid.
Though I would suggest that anyone who doesn't want to appear completely ignorant when it comes to LOAC as it exists in doctrine to refrain from asking "how many civilian deaths were deemed acceptable before the bomb was dropped? 10? 50? 100? 200?"
See, this question is completely ignorant because it in no way considers what degree of concrete & direct military advantage was ANTICIPATED when comparing the expectation of incidental damage. And as I indicated earlier, the DOCTRINAL (read: not BULLSHIT) version of the LOAC proportionality rule requires an assessment of both.
And if you aren't assessing both, based on evidence of knowledge & intent AT TIME TIME, what are you doing??
That's right. Blowing hot air. While confirming to the world you have no clue about which you speak.
"Calling the paperwork a 'proportionality assessment' doesn't make the deaths proportionate."
- First of all, a "'proportionality assessment'" involves much more than merely "paperwork." Indeed, many proportionality assessments - perhaps most, in my experience - don't involve "paperwork" at all since they're conducted on the fly (so to speak) in the context of a dynamic targeting operation or a self-defense engagement. Only a person who hasn't the foggiest fucking clue what s/he is talking about would minimize the procedure inherent in a proportionality assessment by referring to it merely as "paperwork."
And regarding the part about calling the "paperwork" a proportionality assessment "doesn't make the deaths proportionate," once again - no shit.
It doesn't make it "disproportionate" either. One, because - again - there is no such thing as a "proportionate" or "disproportionate" attack. There are attacks that comply with the LOAC proportionality rule, and those that don't.
The only way to differentiate between the two is to evaluate the degree of incidental damage EXPECTED & incidental damage ANTICIPATED at the time in order to determine whether the former was excessive in relation to the latter.
If it wasn't, it complied with the LOAC proportionality rule. If it was, it didn't.
And if you're not articulating a doctrinal version of the rule & then presenting evidence demonstrating it was violated, you are simply ... that's right - blowing hot air.
"You don't get to mark your own homework and call it proof of innocence."
- Seriously. LOAC compliance isn't fucking "homework". What is this ... junior high?
Besides, despite the popular narrative about a military "grading its own homework" when evaluating LOAC compliance - this rhetoric simply demonstrates a complete misunderstanding regarding military force structure to begin with.
Of course, it WOULD be "grading your own paperwork" if we WERE in junior high AND the person responsible for the attack is ALSO responsible for evaluating LOAC compliance afterward.
But, alas, this is NOT junior high & that is NOT how LOAC compliance is evaluated in practice & in reality.
And exactly how is it that I would know that?, you might be asking yourself (if you have no clue who I am).
Easy. I've advised on CIVCAS assessments, investigations, and advised on potential criminal cases as an operational law attorney & military prosecutor in practice - including in combat.
So I know what those who simply blow hot air don't appear to understand. While each military organization establishes its own version of the process, the common thread (at least among militaries that care about LOAC compliance, including the IDF) is that an echelon of command above or separate from that responsible for the incident conducts the evaluation & it is done by someone who has no connection to the attack or the personnel involved.
If an ACTUAL war crime was committed, there is simply no incentive for the entity conducting the inquiry to sweep it under the rug. In short, no one is grading their own homework. Those who suggest otherwise are simply ... that's right - blowing hot air.
"Everyone with rational thinking and functioning eyesight could see how Israel's killing in Gaza was indiscriminate and disproportionate."
- Wrong. No one with rational thinking & a clue of how LOAC actually functions in practice would claim ANY military's operations ANYWHERE are "indiscriminate and disproportionate" based on what their "functioning eyesight" indicates to them alone.
That's because you can't properly determine whether an attack was "indiscriminate" unless you know what the knowledge & intent were of the person(nel) responsible AT THE TIME for EVERY ATTACK you claim to evaluate. Otherwise, all you're doing is looking at the effects of an attack - and that isn't an adequate way to assess LOAC compliance. Regarding the "disproportionate" claim - no need to explain again why that is erroneous as a matter of doctrine.
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There. We've now addressed every word of Bushra's post, from start to finish (after the first line that sets up the "analysis" thereafter). So, what should be the main takeaways from all this?
To start with, it's not uncommon in public discourse to merely string together a few LOAC terms, as Bushra does here, without having a clue what one is talking about. This dynamic has existed for several years before 10/7, but unfortunately it has expanded exponentially since then in an attempt to create the veneer of legitimacy to rhetoric intended to criticize or denounce Israel.
Also unfortunately, those who routinely misrepresent LOAC or merely blow hot air for that purpose experience absolutely no reputational damage for doing so. Quite the opposite, there are a number of ideological incentives for denouncing Israel AND a general ignorance regarding how LOAC functions in practice - which actually ENCOURAGES propagandists like Bushra here to rely on the language of international law as a tool for denouncing Israel even when the criticism isn't ACTUALLY supported by the law as it exists in doctrine.
So although it can be difficult to tell the difference, it is imperative that everyone is able to - or learns how to - differentiate between those who actually understand LOAC & engage with it in an informed & balanced way in public discourse on one hand, and those who are merely blowing hot air.
Based on this exchange, there should of course be no question regarding to which category I belong & to which Bushra here belongs.
And if you're inclined to blow hot air just to fabricate an excuse to denounce Israel, you should think twice. You never know when you'll encounter someone - like me - who knows better and is willing to put in the time & effort to demonstrate, in painstaking detail, just how clueless you actually are.
#TheMoreYouKnow #legaldisinformation
Breaking news: The Trump administration is preparing a $2.8 billion sale of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, the largest single sale of the controversial munitions in recent years, a U.S. official told The Post. https://t.co/OBZqGeTtgw
The IDF Spokesperson asks the creators of the film “Naza”:
“Please allow us to watch the full film so that we can address each of the claims on its merits.”
Let this sink in. There are people so driven by hatred and the desire to portray an entire military as evil that they will take evidence of compliance with the law of war and try to convince you it is evidence of murder.
Proportionality is a fundamental principle of the law of war. It requires militaries to assess the anticipated military advantage of an attack against the expected incidental harm to civilians. Western militaries conduct this analysis through collateral damage estimation, or CDE. The fact that Israel estimates potential civilian harm before an attack is evidence of a system designed to reduce civilian casualties and comply with the law. It is not evidence of a “murderous system.”