anndailey

Geopolitical strategist at RAND. Former Pentagon Senior Advisor on International Security. Russia/Europe expert. Opinions my own. E pluribus unum.

[anndailey @anndailey]

If you read one thing today, Make it George Kennan’s so-called #longtelegram. The 19-pg State cable written 79 years ago today laid the foundation for the post-WWII policy of containment toward the Soviet Union holds 4 key lessons for today 1/8

[anndailey @anndailey]

@AP @dog_rates this is at least a 12/10

[The Associated Press @AP]

When a camera went missing during a shoot in the Arctic circle, the AP crew found it among sled dogs they'd been filming with earlier. A dog had taken it and had also hit record.

[anndailey @anndailey]

In sum – things that look dumb to us usually make perfect sense from the Russian perspective. 6/6 @FrancisDearnley @DomNicholls #ukrainethelatest

[anndailey @anndailey]

For those baffled by the restriction on #diplomaticflights in the #WitkoffDmitriev plan, #Russia wanted to ban diplomatic flights for 2 long-standing reasons and 1 tactical one: 1/6

[anndailey @anndailey]

3) Russian SAMs have a history of shooting down civilian flights. If diplomatic flights go to Ukraine, Russia likely would have to stand down SAMs during some/all of the flights to avoid shooting down foreign diplomats, which would leave them vulnerable to Ukrainian attack. 5/6

[RAND @RANDCorporation]

"When it comes to European defense, Russian attack drones are not the true problem. The problem is an erosion of the pillars of nuclear and conventional deterrence." — @anndailey
https://t.co/ljdPSRXHrg

[anndailey @anndailey]

#russia is a problem. #drones are a problem. But the real problem is that if #NATO focuses on defending against drones flying from the east, it risks missing the bigger picture when it comes to both #russia and #drones

[anndailey @anndailey]

In this @defense_news piece, I argue that #europe should refocus on #deterrence, not building a #dronewall

[Defense News @defense_news]

Opinion: Instead of focusing on defending against drones from the east, Europe should invest in its ability to strike back at Russia, this op-ed's author argues. https://t.co/Wno76KIeUa

[anndailey @anndailey]

@shashj Careful, the next step is enlisting in the Army to afford your own Charger with a 14% APR.

[anndailey @anndailey]

Really hope this finally gets through to the naysayers who discredit the importance of drones for INDOPACOM scenarios because of vague allusions to distance and logistics.

[Maria Avdeeva @maria_avdv]

This will be in textbooks.
Ukraine secretly delivered FPV drones and wooden mobile cabins into Russia. The drones were hidden under the roofs of the cabins, which were later mounted on trucks.

At the signal, the roofs opened remotely. Dozens of drones launched directly from the trucks, striking strategic bomber aircraft.

And — Russia can’t produce these bombers anymore. The loss is massive.
Nothing like this has ever been done before.

[anndailey @anndailey]

Achieving strategic readiness is impossible, but by adopting a practice of strategic risk management, the Pentagon can maximize its readiness at any given time.

[RAND @RANDCorporation]

RAND researchers were asked to examine the Pentagon's progress toward its strategic readiness objectives.

Here's what they found: https://t.co/K2jS5DiXgH

[anndailey @anndailey]

DoD has an abundance of data and readiness reporting but is challenged to turn those data and reporting into timely, issue-relevant assessments for policymakers because of uncertainties about data quality and a lack of data analytics tools.

[anndailey @anndailey]

Really enjoyed thinking through strategic #readiness and #risk in this @rand report. DoD should adopt a logic model for strategic readiness, create an independent oversight function, develop risk thresholds, and clarify responsibilities.
Other takeaways:

https://t.co/SEfHh4uIyk

[anndailey @anndailey]

Middle-term strategic readiness risks lack a champion in policy deliberations, both in internal DoD discussions and in national-level policy conversations.

[anndailey @anndailey]

Putin declares that he is in favor of a ceasefire, but based on his comments, he is aiming for 1) Ukrainian withdrawal from Kursk, 2) Halts to Ukrainian refitting/reconstitution, and 3) some sort of verification mechanism along the line of contact.