Jim

Fourth Turning - who’s NGMI?

[Jim @antipodes52]

“The line separating good and evil passes not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either -- but right through every human heart -- and through all human hearts.
― Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956

[Jim @antipodes52]

@romanhelmetguy @QuasLacrimas John Law would endorse this plan.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@thekrazykobra @SpaceX @FTAlphaville My best guess is it trades like Rivian.

Trump timed the Iran pump to help, but there is no precedent for a deal of this size, so we’ll just have to watch.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@UrbanKaoboy You’re sounding like Harlan Korenvaes, but I’m dating myself.

[Capital Misallocation @BenBrey]

Tomorrow night the underwriters will give the official stamp on the SpaceX deal.
John Law would have understood every line of the term sheet, admired the retail allocation, envied the index plumbing, & asked only the one question he failed to answer in time:

What happens to a System when it stops growing?
He found out in eleven months.
We trade Friday.

@SquirrelMacro

https://t.co/S2s8eZzekC

[Jim @antipodes52]

@BenBrey The food in New Orleans is better than in space. At least Law had that going for him.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Governments Are Selling Bonds at Record Pace as Spending Soars

Governments are borrowing from syndicated bond markets at a record clip as public spending surges.

Sovereign issuers have sold $504 billion of debt so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than in the first half of 2020, when nations were paying to support their economies during Covid-19 lockdowns.

Budget deficits have been climbing since the global financial crisis. They spiked during the pandemic, when interest rates were slashed to record lows, and are widening again as governments boost defense spending and try to protect households from price shocks driven by the Iran war. Aging populations and rising interest rates are adding to the pressure. (Bloomberg)

[Jim @antipodes52]

The stock opened at 29.25 and over a few trading days went down to $15. At that point we were concerned about Deutsche Bank’s new entrant franchise in investment banking and the head of equities authorized buying a million shares as principal (1/3 of the float) to stabilize the price. That did the trick and the stock was off to a solid future.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@dampedspring 💯- I was the ECM guy that priced Amazon. Absolutely nobody thought it had anything to do with a top.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@BlacklionCTA @dampedspring It was the final capitulation of rational valuation frameworks.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@PharmD_KS @agnostoxxx October 15, 1929

[Jim @antipodes52]

@ptuomov Did Jack Grubman write this?

[Jim @antipodes52]

@JohnDoss1 I saw a Phil Jackson dunk hit the back rim and rebound to mid-court in that era.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@chigrl Could be GLP1s how could they distinguish?

[Jim @antipodes52]

@PauloMacro Make Nigerian barge deals great again.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@VickieforNYC @ProdigalThe3rd Of course nobody is looking at New York City’s own record as a landlord of 177,565 apartments.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@WalterDeemer @_LittleFire1 And they kept growing revenues at a good clip the entire drawdown.

[Jim @antipodes52]

@GoshawkTrades Poor T.J.

[Excess Returns @excessreturnpod]

"What I've noticed in looking at bubble regimes is strategies that work most of the time don't work as well in bubble regimes, except for one."

"Your alpha is probably less than it has been because your sample set that you've used to train your alpha, train your mind doesn't include very many bubble regimes."

Andy Constan on how active investors can adjust in a bubble regime.

[Jim @antipodes52]

An old Wall Street adage is , “When the ducks are quacking feed them.”

What happens to the ducks when they are overfed?

[BlindSquirrelMacro @SquirrelMacro]

Free for all 1 check it out 👇https://t.co/vA12zVeDUQ

[Jim @antipodes52]

@Dr_Gingerballs @BickerinBrattle @toiletkingcap No precious metals?