JAPAN IS TRAPPED AND EVERY OPTION MAKES IT EVEN WORSE
Japan spent roughly $88 billion in two days defending the yen. USD/JPY hit 155.2, and it is already back above 159.
That $88 Billion intervention bought them just three days.
Bond yields are making it even worse.
The 2-year and 5-year both hit 31-year Highs.
Weak currency + high bond yields is a problem no country can afford.
A weak yen makes every import more expensive, and Japan buys almost all its energy in dollars. Rising yields make borrowing more expensive for every Japanese business at the same time.
It gets worse for the financial system. Japan's four largest insurers are already sitting on ¥14.5 trillion in unrealised bond losses, roughly $91 billion.
Every rise in yields makes that number bigger.
Now the BOJ looks set to hike in September.
Reuters reported yesterday that at least three of nine board members argued for faster rate increases at the July meeting.
Sources say the intervention and pressure from Bessent have all but locked in a September move.
A hike pushes Japanese yields higher still, which deepens the losses on bonds already held and raises borrowing costs further.
And there is a second much worse effect.
Higher Japanese yields narrow the gap between US and Japanese rates. That gap is what makes the yen carry trade profitable.
Traders borrow yen cheaply and buy higher-yielding assets abroad.
Narrow the gap and the trade stops working. Positions get closed, and closing them means selling.
Every direction the BOJ turns creates a new problem somewhere else.
My take in @DailyCaller on DISRUPTIONS caused by Trump's war of choice on Iran:
“The U.S.-Israeli war of choice against Iran has brought the bond vigilantes out of hibernation and sent interest rates higher. This has not only affected the private sector by pushing mortgage rates above their levels before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, but also has significant implications for financing the federal government’s yawning fiscal deficit. At present, 35% of all personal income tax revenue is consumed by interest payments on America’s debt. That percentage is destined to rise.”
The 🇯🇵 Japanese yen fell to 159:1 USD today, quickly approaching the critical 160 level.
The 1st US Treasury intervention in 28 years to stop the Japanese yen from depreciating further appears to have failed.
Further intervention is needed. Problem is, if the US and Bank of Japan intervenes too much it could trigger the yen carry trade to unwind, collapsing the US stock market.
China now owns the world's largest and most tunnel boring machines (TBMs). 70% of the world's total are made in China. But this dominance is hard-earned.
In 1997, to build the Qinling Tunnel, China paid Germany RMB 700 million for just 2 SECONDHAND TBMs. 700 million is an entire region’s tax revenue back then.
But the 700 million didn't include support. China also had to hire German engineers for €800/day (≈RMB 6,800), while the average Chinese worker earned less than RMB 4,000 a year.
Back then, the global market was locked by the US, Japan, and Germany. China was being robbed, simply because it couldn't produce its own.
In 2002, China began the painful journey of self-development of TBM, which has over 30,000 precision parts.
After 6 years, in 2008, China's first homegrown TBM was born. In a 2012 head-to-head test, it matched the best in the world. Today, Chinese TBMs lead the world. Dignity is earned.
This is just an example in TBM. In humanoid robots, in electric cars, in solar farms, in drones...China has plenty of examples that make the country strong again.
Japan reportedly threw roughly $75 BILLION at defending the yen.
The U.S. may have added another $5–10 billion.
The yen is already weakening back toward 160 per dollar.
This graphic from 2024 was not a joke.