@Amalteya3000 I have not seen consistent promise of oil 150 in my feed. But oil moving from 95 to 100 is a 1 day volatility call - what is the value of such prediction? Moreover, front month has not touched 95 as of now to be fair
@ALikhodedov@cooommodity@RusOilGasExpert@ed_fin Thanks.I’m trying to look at the incentives of tanker owners. One more thought is that tankers need to come back to take more crude from the gulf (so its a round trip with a demolition risk taken twice basically) or floating oil in the gulf will become scarce soon
@ALikhodedov@cooommodity@RusOilGasExpert@ed_fin Anton, may be it makes sense to look at the difference of term structure (say Sep-Apr) than spot in the gulf vs spot outside? Beacuase if u have oil in the gulf u are chosing btw risk taking pass thru SoH and hedging it with sale at a later date? Then the risk isnt worth it?
@dtx677@mnskymoment Да Бразилия схожий пример, только там структура экономики другая + гораздо выше доля льготки, пожтому в лоб срвнение некорректно. И в рф даже так была выше реальная ставка (сейчас от 10.5 до 14 можно оценить:)). Ну и как бы в чем логика приаодить бразилию в пример?
@mnskymoment Ну уже пиздец. Кв/кв 0 рост. А это еще ндс не завезли. По факту реальная ставка даже выше чем год назад стала - ток тогда экономи на 4-5% росла