Antony Hawkins

Social enterprise leader and social integration enthusiast formerly of @TheChallenge_UK. Outside that, an avid amateur brewer (beer) and cyclist. Views own.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@DanHarkin This is like asking ‘have we had the worst 3 Covid-19 variants in a row’, 4 weeks ago. Yeah, but hold on…

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer If you compared risk of mortality during deployment Afghanistan 2001-21 with that during 24 hour period on Friday (constituency meetings) also 2001-21 I think (but this is on the move maths) the former would be higher but not by a lot. Both would be too high. (2/2)

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer The analysis of comparing total risk of MPs on their 1 day a week of constituency meeting duties vs for armed forces in the period they are in a theatre of combat (ie deployed in country in combat operation) e.g. since 2000 would be an interesting comparison. (1/2)

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer For the record if you look at injuries + deaths as a metric I agree - i would be very surprised if you didn’t find armed forces service to be substantially higher risk. https://t.co/LBDLvwID23, statists, Wikipedia if you want to take a look.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer The original thread was about risk of being killed in service. So that’s what I looked up. You are misrepresenting my views by assuming I am making a broader point than I am. Of course it’s just one metric. You are welcome to look at others. (1/2)

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer I am just showing the overall numbers transparently and as best as I can source quickly. Don’t shoot the messenger.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer To be clear again my original point was to quickly compare to overall risk in a career in the armed forces profession as a whole with that of a career as an MP. Nothing more. You are reading too much into what you think I am assuming or stating.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer If you want to compare to risk in active combat you are welcome to work out the appropriate period of operations find the stats yourself. I’m just trying to be helpful above by asking your question as best I can in a 5 min search and calculation. Have a nice day.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@lastminute_com you appear not to have booked all of the flight tickets we you paid for, for tmw. I am trying to speak to a human on your customer service line to confirm if this is the case but it’s all automated messages. Please DM me on how we can resolve this

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer For US (as you say the majority) 64 US killed in hostile action in Afghanistan 2016-21 out of an average US force of ~12000. 2 out of 650 MPs. So for this period (which was peacekeep, train, evacuate), about 1.8x as likely to be killed as a US soldier in Afg. than as a UK mp.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer Are those too high or too low? How much should we worry about them? I’m not stating any judgment. Just presenting some comparators that you can take as you like, but it’s no misuse of statistics to make a comparison as long as you are transparent on the terms. Go easy.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer Chance of being murdered in a given year in general population - about 1.2 per 100000. Chance of being murdered if you are black, about 5. Chance in armed forces, varies widely depending on theatres of combat but was 8 in the 2010s, 38 in 2000s, higher generally in 20thC.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer Well 1 in 500 is clearly not infinitesimal. That’s just definitionally a misunderstanding of the meaning of infinitesimal

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer You seem to have missed my point. I am not writing that MPs have a high rate of assassination compared to all other ways of dying. Rather I am asking and answering how the rate compares to being killed by another human in other walks of life.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer 27 members of the armed forces out of a serving force of about 150000 were killed in operation in 2005. Yes, depending on where you were stationed the risk would no doubt be higher/lower.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@POmi7798 @TedJB875 @DJT1Million @KillerTortoise1 @Keir_Starmer If 6 British soldiers (out of a serving force of about 150000) is a hell of a lot more than 2, then yes.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@jonsakoda Why does this CEO think fear is the driver for their employees wanting to continue to work from home? Seems to me for more people it’s beliefs about productivity, balance etc. Could this be alpha posturing that is out of touch?

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@Samfr Not sure how many MPs take up the role thinking their personal safety is in the range of what it would be if they were in a career where they were regularly in a war zone.

[Antony Hawkins @antonyhawkins]

@Samfr Just did the maths on this. Chance of operational death in British armed forces in this century about 23/100000 per year. Chance of being assassinated as an MP 15/100000. (And 21/100000 if you take 1979-2021 as the period).