Anthony Yiu

Lifelong passion for investing. Deep-dive fundamental analysis of business moats & long-term value.

My research is published at

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

A keeper offers his monkeys 3 chestnuts in the morning, 4 at night. They rage. He reverses it — 4, then 3. They're delighted. The total, 7, never changed.

Zhuangzi, ~2,300 years ago. Also: $PM vs $BTI so far year to date. 🧵

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

The US majors got the level playing field they wished for.

But a level field is indiscriminate — Midas couldn't pick what turned to gold either. It opens the door to the most PMTA-fluent supply chain on earth. It isn't American.

Full piece: https://t.co/r3RqFfs9tT

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

3am, Sunday, HK. The whole city's up for the World Cup. I'm up publishing a tobacco investment tracker. ⚽️🚬

Every algorithm says post on a weekday. I ignored them.

This issue's theme: Be careful what you wish for 👇

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

@nicotinecap Yes, spot on. I would rather spend time doing something more meaningful and enjoyable. If an investor wants to go for adrenaline rush from trading, AI stocks offer far more exciting experience.

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

A keeper offers his monkeys 3 chestnuts in the morning, 4 at night. They rage. He reverses it — 4, then 3. They're delighted. The total, 7, never changed.

Zhuangzi, ~2,300 years ago. Also: $PM vs $BTI so far year to date. 🧵

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

The category driving all the emotion carries a weight of ~5%. Loud ≠ heavy — and the market keeps confusing the two.

Full piece on what actually holds the line:
https://t.co/CTdHfRvHRi

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

BAT walked in as the mirror: "Velo is strong in the US."

Also true — they raised New Category guidance. Market leaned in.

Opposite frames. Same ending: both reaffirmed full-year guidance. Only revisions were FX + non-cash adjustment.

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

@gngwng321889205 @JinsongXue16246 謝謝分享，我也研究一下

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

Ahead of Big Tobacco's quarterly earnings, it's time to filter out the noise and focus on what matters. Revisit the power ranking guide for $PM, $BTI, $MO, $IMB, and $JAPAY.

Read the full, in-depth analysis before the numbers drop:
https://t.co/28m5jb00mc

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

https://t.co/knAvI9om0U

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

The France pouch ban was widely reported as a "ZYN ban."

This framing is geographically backwards.

France is a $BTI problem, not a $PM problem.🧵

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

Full bi-weekly tracker — dynamic signal matrix across $PM $MO $BTI $IMB.L $2914.T plus the chronological regulatory landscape — on Recital.

Format doesn't fit on X. Link below.

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

@BigBlockVette69 @HundyBaggerz Yes agreed. It requires substantial scale for profitability to match combustible. Otherwise, marketing and promotional rebates eat into the margin. R&D is also a burden due to threat of competitive offerings.

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

PMI's ZYN US shipments fell 30.8% in Q1.

The stock rallied 8% the same week.

What got repriced wasn't ZYN. It was the model.

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

@jamesforeman99 On! PLUS is gaining share but mainly driven by distribution push / gain in shelf space. Will need to wait and see whether that is sustainable.

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

The FDA went from punitive to permissive in 14 days.

Being first-to-authorization in US nicotine — the moat PMI built over five years — just got narrower.

What else the consensus missed this fortnight, in four reads 👇

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

Issue No. 3 of the bi-weekly tracker — now on Recital:

https://t.co/1OAAsYsbAM

Which of the four reads do you see differently?

[Anthony Yiu @antonykh1218]

Every signal is source-tagged across NielsenIQ, company IR, industry journals, and regulatory filings.

Every forward view carries a specific threshold at which it reverses.

You can audit every claim.