global stocks

thoughts on stocks. not an investment advisor, not investment advice.

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@antonykh1218 great work anthony! How is dollar share of pouches ex ZYN Velo?

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@By_CJewett @kenvogel this is great policy and well done Trump. What would you rather have a regulated taxed industry selling age-restricted vapes or an illicit market? See australia for disastrous policy..

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@iBladesi and btw vuse devices are made in china and indonesia.. the liquid in usa

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@iBladesi simple. FDA authorises $BTI flavoured vapes which go on sale. Customer who prefer flavours no longer have to buy 'wonky chinese' illegal vapes. Border enforcement continues to target illegal imports. Playing field levels vs currently unfair.

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@tobaccoinsider 😃 given the dearth of opportunities (weakening growth) in staples generally its perhaps unsurprising that tobacco is returning to favour for institutional investors (many of which must own a certain % of staples)

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@antonykh1218 I see. So Vuse flattish volume and illicit gaining again? :( BAT seemed to think they were starting to recover on the back of enforcement..

The FDA holding on pouch approvals may actually be a positive for BAT huh. They seem to have the best product on the market right now.

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@tobaccoinsider Excellent. This will largely cover the exceptional FII tax ruling payment BAT has to pay to the UK in 2026. Leaves a small remainder of 50 for 2027

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@aledade3 @nicotinecap if they meet the algo for 10y and then stop growing, the stock is c50% undervalued today (back of envelope, 9.5bn fcf growing 5, 8 % wacc)

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@nicotinecap feeling better now the ITC hotel stake divestment is proceeding. Pretty confident in FY and that next year will be at least algo. Concerned that they stick with the algo as guide for next year and market is disappointed.

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@antonykh1218 great chart. I think USA Gold is imperial tho

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@antonykh1218 thanks for this useful data. What has the category growth been?

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@antonykh1218 can you please show the YOY dollar sales of the category?

We have to consider non-tracked channels as making up considerable volume for illicit sales. If the tracked channels are growing and $BTI is gaining share, then I agree this is positive news.

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@real_MikeBarnes obviously the weak ad spend comments were the main negative, with the cost reductions and the increasing BB positive

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@real_MikeBarnes i was disappointed not to hear about:
- click to cancel change and intro of play driving improving subs outlook (mgmt were cautionary and said Play will be slow as targeted and needs time to build listener/ad base ecosystem)
- tax benefit (said wait till fall)

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@GreenMonsterah Agree that there position was its strategic, if india open up regulations ITC is a key partner. That view may have shifted (can BAT go faster direct?), or maybe the chance of opening up has fallen? Lets find out in a few days not lose our heads

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@GreenMonsterah I was responding to the comment that the first round of sale was an example of mgmt throwing a bone

‘Thats exactly what $BTI did last year when they sold #ITC stake down to 25% to fund the buyback’

And saying no it was slow the first time

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@GreenMonsterah Here its just they didn’t want to be diluted right. Perhaps they felt ITC was the only option to bring NGP to India, and now they think they can bring NGP themselves in time. Trade barriers in India falling?

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@GreenMonsterah What puzzles you here? If you go to transcripts it was a long process from decision to action. I’m making the point it wasn’t ‘results are bad so hey lets sell and do a BB’ decision process

[global stocks @jamesforeman99]

@GreenMonsterah It wasn't a quick decision then either. CEO began investigating path and rules to divestment far earlier. Process took over 1y if i recall