OVareNTr

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[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@deepvalueco Why do that now when they can repurchase their own shares at below NAV?

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@realroseceline This is my biggest source of consternation with $CSU. Although the company is performing great today, it likely won’t be for a few more years until the impact of AI on the business is truly well understood.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@marc_slans Agree with point on regulatory risk. The other major deficit is that it is the Mark Zuckerberg show - the man is young but not immortal. Also not the kind of guy with the humility to train capable successors. Not to mention the dual class share issues. Lot of key man risk.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@Alexand93085679 Another small piece of evidence that what we are seeing is a slow motion takeover by Dart. The founders are ready to sell.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@compoundpapi Teledyne’s TSR under Singleton was ~20% over 27 years according to Claude. Watsa’s has been ~19% over 40 years. You may not like the guy but the numbers don’t lie.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@ohcapideas Yup. I do get the sense the street still does not really price the company on adjusted book, but all the better for LT shareholders!

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@deepvalueco I like the company and am long but I think the bear case is plausible. Kind of suspicious they announce US market entry at the same time as declining L4Ls - perhaps the decline is more structural than they are messaging to the street.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

Even with mediocre equity gains and underwriting performance seems like an almost no brainer >12% IRR from here w little risk.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

$FFH.TO What am I missing? Assuming rates stay elevated the next five years, at current prices the interest and dividends on the bond portfolio alone will let’s Fairfax repurchase 7-8% of shares per year at current prices.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@TBstockinvestor Wouldn’t be surprised if this is a prelude to a take private. Hopefully minority shareholders get a reasonable price if that occurs.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@DrewCohenMoney It probably took some time to get the BoD comfortable with taking on leverage for a larger buyback.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@compoundpapi Great call on the public LBO. Looks like they’re taking on debt to fund a larger buyback.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@TBstockinvestor Also possible they are expecting fines from UKGC and the California litigation.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@deepvalueco In hindsight seems clear that the company was overearning post-COVID. Seems like mean reversion to me. Will probs still grow MSD over the LT.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@ErnestWongBWM My interpretation of this is that the owner-operators of these businesses who are actually close to their customers see minimal AI threat and are thus not willing to sell at a discount.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@DevinLaSarre Feel like the market puts more value on the short term tailwind from new product launches and discounts the erosion of terminal value from competition

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@ohcapideas How do you think about stability of their underwriting profit given the impending soft market? Seems difficult to project how much premiums could possibly shrink.

[OVareNTr @aledade3]

@ohcapideas Does Fairfax disclose the expected avg duration of their insurance liabilities?