alan kwan

financial economist / alternative data + data science junkie

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@kunchenguid definitely not right for cursor based on my usage data. getting 8-10k + $500 (i forget the exact endpoint, under 50, above 40)

[molson 🧠⚙️ @Molson_Hart]

https://t.co/b9K9yNW5Dq

[molson 🧠⚙️ @Molson_Hart]

The White House has put itself and the country in a bad situation but doesn’t realize it yet.

Around April 10th China to USA trade shut down.

It takes ~30 days for containers to go from China to LA.

45 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by train.

55 to New York by sea.

That means that there are no economic effects of what was done on April 10th until about May 10th.

Around that time (it’s already started to happen) trucking work is going to dry up. Warehouses will start doing layoffs because no labor is needed to unload containers and some products will be out of stock, reducing the need for shipping labor.

All this will start in the Los Angeles area.

After about 2 weeks, it’ll start hitting Chicago and Houston.

Let’s say the White House, after 3 weeks, changes its mind, on May 31st.

“This isn’t working out like we thought it would. Tariffs back to 0.”

Let’s say China says “bygones be bygones, we’ll go back to how things were”.

Let’s say every factory in China that got screwed by their orders being cancelled says the same thing “no problem, we’ll make and ship”.

The problem is, even under the most favorable conditions of China and the factories restarting economic ties as though nothing happened, it will be at least another 30 days before economic activity is revived.

And that’s just in LA.

In Chicago/Houston, you’ll need to wait another 45 days.

New York, at that point, will still be getting containers from before April 10th, they will then have 50 days (May 31 minus April 10) of zero economic activity at the ports, in trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing.

The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns. Once you shut down, it takes a long time to get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can.

And again, this assumes, that China and its factories, which make things you can’t buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely.

It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet.

By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@MattiasLamotte will need to examine more closely, but good timing!

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@MattiasLamotte If you had to economically interpret what your model is picking up currently, what would that interpretation be?

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@gedeonlim89 @chuncheekok awesome! amazing you did all this work to pioneer the setting

[alan kwan @apk0926]

HKU Finance is hosting a webinar (Nov 14, 5pm HKT) for prospective Finance PhD applicants! If you didn't consider HKU or HK for a Finance PhD, please come! And share!
Flyer: https://t.co/ry75e0jg1d
Signup form: https://t.co/QR2AkigAEh
@econ_ra, @predoc_org, @jobs_ra, @INOMICS

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@jj_eugene_tan so a linux box amirite?

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@gedeonlim89 I'd be curious if once gave it a skewed/tilted image before hailing victory.

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@DimasFazio @BenCharoenwong

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@doctorow @awscloud would be a great public project and probably much smaller than other AWS public projects.

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@doctorow @awscloud can you please host the data on an s3 bucket, ideally converted to a big data format?

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@BenCharoenwong @Hyundai @Hyundai_Global lollllll and of course we blame sophisticated cyberattacks for loss of corporate data

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@BenCharoenwong @SimuLiu regtech can be used to monitor miscreant members of the ten rings

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@bencowling88 Also maybe let us open a window or step on a balcony. Helps control air being circulated in the hotel and provide a whiff of freedom.

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@jburnmurdoch They work even better if the vaccinated are likelier to get exposed because they move around more.

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@wesmckinn Is the goal for Arrow eventually to have Vaex / dask / disk.frame style analytic queries that efficiently manage memory? a lag operator would also be killer

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@lihua_lei_stat @jialanw @gk_ben @arpitrage @paulgp @lukestein thanks, what is the source? it's not indicated in the sheet

[alan kwan @apk0926]

Win a Micosoft Surface @slickdeals http://t.co/xf4m6iIG

[alan kwan @apk0926]

@ctake Pasadena Sushi Afloat?