Aralyx Market Intelligence

Actionable market intelligence from the @aralyx trading floor. Tracking macro, OSINT/geopolitical risk, news and market events for traders.

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇺🇸 Fed's Goolsbee says inflation remains the key concern, with core still too high and moving in the wrong direction.

• Services inflation the most troubling component, though the latest PCE offered some modest encouragement

• Flagged risk that AI driven spending expectations could prove inflationary if productivity gains are priced in before they materialise

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇮🇷 🇸🇬 🇺🇸 Iran attacks a cargo ship, testing Trump's deal to reopen Strait via @WSJ

• First attack since the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was signed by the U.S. and Iran

• Singaporean-flagged EVER LOVELY was the cargo ship that was hit by a projectile launched by Iran

• It sustained damage to the bridge but no casualities were reported

• It loaded cargo in Umm Qasr, Iraq and was struck off the coast of Oman while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz

• No warning was given by the IRGC before the vessel was hit

• EVER LOVELY was leading a group of three other ships who were also attempting to transit the Strait

#oott

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

UKMTO issues a warning:

• Incident 7.5NM southest of Dahit, Oman

• Cargo vessel hit on starboard side by unkown projectile

• Damage caused to the bridge

• No casualities or environmental impact reported

#oott

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

UN's shipping agency suspends its evacuation plan for stranded ships and seafarers in the Strait of Hormuz following a ship attack in the Gulf of Oman.

• Plan will remain on hold until further clarity obtained.

• Attacked vessel did not transit under UN's evacuation framework.

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine:

• The Security Service of Ukraine approved the conduct of a 40-day operation to influence Russia with the aim of persuading it to end the war.

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇺🇸 US 7-year note auction draws 4.260%, matches pre-sale when issued yield.

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

$AAPL shares down 6% after raising prices across its MacBook and iPad lineup, citing surging memory chip costs.

• Largest decline in share price since April 2025

• Heavy increases in pricing.

• Apple passing cost increases directly to customers.

• Investors remain uncertain over Apple's chip costing and supply.

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇮🇷 The IRGC issues a warning to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz via undesignated routes and without permission

"Vessels transiting outside of the designated routes are responsible for any consequences"

h/t @_MartinKelly_

#oott

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

@HFI_Research
@PauloMacro
@crudegusher
@OilCfd

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

UKMTO issues a warning:

• Incident 7.5NM southest of Dahit, Oman

• Cargo vessel hit on starboard side by unkown projectile

• Damage caused to the bridge

• No casualities or environmental impact reported

#oott

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

UKMTO issues a warning:

• Incident 7.5NM southest of Dahit, Oman

• Cargo vessel hit on starboard side by unkown projectile

• Damage caused to the bridge

• No casualities or environmental impact reported

#oott

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇮🇷
• Iran wants to charge ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz for security, safety and environmental services

• The plan could generate up to $40 billion a year for states involved, if adopted

• Tehran is comparing the proposal to Turkey’s fees on ships using the Dardanelles

• Iran is pitching the idea to China and other Middle Eastern countries

via @WSJ

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇱🇧 🇮🇱

• Lebanon and Israel talks have reached a “dead end” due to the issue of Israel’s withdrawal, or lack thereof, from southern Lebanon

• The Trump administration is pushing for an agreement that includes a "phased withdrawal" of Israel from southern Lebanon

via @AlArabiya_Eng

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

@HFI_Research
@OilCfd
@PauloMacro
@Faytuks
@sentdefender
@Osint613

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇮🇷 The IRGC issues a warning to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz via undesignated routes and without permission

"Vessels transiting outside of the designated routes are responsible for any consequences"

h/t @_MartinKelly_

#oott

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

For reference, here is the map of the "designated routes" published by the Iranian National Security Commission

@LloydsList

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇮🇷 The IRGC issues a warning to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz via undesignated routes and without permission

"Vessels transiting outside of the designated routes are responsible for any consequences"

h/t @_MartinKelly_

#oott

[Aralyx Market Intelligence @aralyxMI]

🇮🇷 Multiple vessels appear to be turning around after the IRGC warning

https://t.co/HaK8zv7jcC

[Windward @WindwardAI]

🚨 Four tankers turned around in the Strait of Hormuz while transiting the southern shipping corridor in Omani waters.

The maneuver followed an IRGC broadcast on VHF Channel 16 stating: "Transit only with IRGC permission, on designated routes. No permission, AIS off, or off-route, and you carry the consequences."

This is a developing situation. Stay tuned for updates.