Arash Behgoo

[David Albright @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1]

Only one main paragraph on nuclear in the MOU text that is circulating and has been published by both Bloomberg and CNN. These versions agree on a very dangerous, leaky opening sentence, “Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons.” This commitment is incomplete from normal standards and experience, since it has giant loopholes that could allow an ever devious Iranian regime to continue working on developing nuclear weapons and building components, while insisting it is not producing nuclear weapons.

Perhaps, there is more, either in a newer version or a secret side deal. But at face value, this sentence needs serious amendment. It should immediately be changed to “never develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess nuclear weapons.“

This language would also include a ban on buying a nuclear weapon, something which Trump reportedly has pushed for, and as reported to be there in some German media.

The rest of the paragraph does not provide confidence that robust IAEA inspections will be established that allow the inspectors to verify the end of Iran’s nuclear weapon program, albeit greatly reduced in size and scope by the two wars. Iran has never agreed to the level of needed access to military sites and personnel. That is why the IAEA Board has found Iran in non-compliance with its obligations. So, does the phraseology of the rest of the paragraph, promising to address “all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues” exclude this highly contentious issue from further negotiations?

As a result, “mutually agreed” should be dropped from the paragraph, since the issues are well defined by UN Security Council Resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and IAEA safeguards reports. 

Full paragraph in MOU we have:
“The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.”

A second paragraph of the MOU mentions nuclear.  Reportedly, "The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region."  What is the status quo of Iran's program, given it has undeclared nuclear material it refuses to admit to and has worked on nuclear weapons? Moreover, who will verify it?

[Arash Behgoo @ArashBehgoo]

“We took out a man named Soleimani, [and installed a man named Qalibaf.]”

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Trump:

We took out a man named Soleimani. Do you think this would have happened if he were alive?

He was an evil genius.

[Arash Behgoo @ArashBehgoo]

He knows how the “not radicalised” officials of the “new regime” in Iran talk about him. Right?

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Trump: "You know what the Iranians did? They laughed at Obama and they said he's a stupid son of a bitch."

[Arash Behgoo @ArashBehgoo]

We now know that @Pontifex Maximus can name “the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Just not when he condemns the killing of unarmed protesters.

[Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex]

I welcome with satisfaction the reaching of an agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, which will be signed on Friday, as an encouraging result of patient work in dialogue and negotiation. I express my gratitude to the countries that have worked to facilitate a meeting between the parties and to make this agreement possible. I hope that the agreement may help strengthen mutual trust, security, and stability in the Middle East, promoting paths of dialogue and cooperation among peoples. #Peace

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

Once the Iranians receive billions of dollars in cash as part of the agreement due to be signed on Friday, they may well create new obstacles to delay any future progress in the nuclear talks, said Zohar Palti, a former head of the Mossad intelligence directorate who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank. “From their perspective, the Americans gave them what they wanted, and perhaps even asked for too little,” he said. “Therefore, they see no reason to offer anything meaningful in return.”

https://t.co/7kEMAlLTkv

[Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian @manniefabian]

Sirens warning of a suspected drone infiltration from Lebanon sound in the border community of Zarit.

The IDF says it is looking into the details.

[Andrew Fox @Mr_Andrew_Fox]

I believe the biggest disgrace of the war was how Trump used the people of Iran. He gave them hope then snatched it away.

[Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו @netanyahu]

עם הסכם, בלי הסכם - כל עוד אני ראש ממשלת ישראל, לאיראן לא יהיה נשק גרעיני.

[Arash Behgoo @ArashBehgoo]

If the MoU was supposed to stay quiet about “proxies,” why does it demand an immediate and permanent end to hostilities in “all fronts, including Lebanon”?

[Arash Behgoo @ArashBehgoo]

Apparently, an unnamed American official has told the CNN that we must not worry about the MoU and its text — because in private, Qalibaf has told him “Trust me bro.”
https://t.co/mcAOe5Hw68

[Arash Behgoo @ArashBehgoo]

What's the point of an Islamic Revolutionary Rodríguez who keeps repeating Soleimani's talking points and implementing Khamenei's policies?

[The Middle Eastern @TMiddleEastern]

The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, issues a harsh and direct threat against @realDonaldTrump, calling him delusional and a gambler:

"We have heard that you have threatened Iran.
Know that the defenders of Iran will teach you a lesson that will never be forgotten.

Come, and be burned by the fire of Iran’s defenders, in a way that will become an eternal historical lesson for the tyrannical rulers of the US.
In the name of millions of Iranian women and men, I say to the delusional and arrogant President of the United States that we, the Iranian nation, say to you exactly the words of Haj Qassem (Soleimani):
‘O gambler Trump, we are your opponent.
We are the nation of Imam Hussein. We are waiting. We stand facing you.’

Come, and see how all your capabilities in the region will be destroyed.
Come, and see what will become of the American bases, the American ships, and the American forces.

Come and understand that when the region is set ablaze, you will face overwhelming firepower.

Delusional Trump, do not believe the lies that are told to you.
They told you that Mashhad had fallen, but the followers of Imam Reza (the eighth Imam in Shi‘ism) stand ready to respond to your delusions.

We will not tolerate the blood of our people, the blood of our scientists, and the blood of our commanders".

[The Middle Eastern @TMiddleEastern]

The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, issues a harsh and direct threat against @realDonaldTrump, calling him delusional and a gambler:

"We have heard that you have threatened Iran.
Know that the defenders of Iran will teach you a lesson that will never be forgotten.

Come, and be burned by the fire of Iran’s defenders, in a way that will become an eternal historical lesson for the tyrannical rulers of the US.
In the name of millions of Iranian women and men, I say to the delusional and arrogant President of the United States that we, the Iranian nation, say to you exactly the words of Haj Qassem (Soleimani):
‘O gambler Trump, we are your opponent.
We are the nation of Imam Hussein. We are waiting. We stand facing you.’

Come, and see how all your capabilities in the region will be destroyed.
Come, and see what will become of the American bases, the American ships, and the American forces.

Come and understand that when the region is set ablaze, you will face overwhelming firepower.

Delusional Trump, do not believe the lies that are told to you.
They told you that Mashhad had fallen, but the followers of Imam Reza (the eighth Imam in Shi‘ism) stand ready to respond to your delusions.

We will not tolerate the blood of our people, the blood of our scientists, and the blood of our commanders".

[Miad Maleki @miadmaleki]

WSJ reports the Trump-Iran MOU allows Tehran to immediately sell oil, and may waive banking and transport sanctions to facilitate transactions.

If accurate, this is far more alarming than a narrow General License (like the one Treasury issued in March covering only crude already loaded on vessels). But if it's real, the administration is trading away its most durable economic lever before the hard part of the negotiation has even started.

Broadening authorization to financial transactions would crack the core architecture of U.S. oil and financial sanctions against Iran, arguably the most powerful economic leverage the U.S. holds over this regime, absent the naval blockade.

What makes this especially dangerous: if broad relief is offered upfront while negotiations drag on for months, it normalizes Iranian oil flows to China, India, and the UAE, and critically, normalizes the repatriation of Iran's oil revenue back to Tehran. Revenue that today sits trapped in Chinese bank accounts due to secondary financial sanctions.

Once that normalization sets in, re-establishing today's level of leverage would take years, not weeks.

https://t.co/ucrmGQ3lHO

[Mark R. Levin @marklevinshow]

Say what

https://t.co/J80vd6n5Xo

[Inst for Science @TheGoodISIS]

Over the weekend, CNN reported that, “in recent weeks,” according to five “sources familiar with US intelligence”, “Iran has dramatically escalated efforts to seal off its cache of near bomb-grade uranium, deliberately collapsing tunnels and booby-trapping entrances with explosive mines.”

We have been monitoring the sites believed to house enriched uranium – the Esfahan tunnel site, the underground Fordow enrichment plant, and the underground Natanz enrichment plant and associated tunnels. We reported on the US and Israeli attacks on the facilities and their entrances, specifically the Esfahan and Fordow tunnel entrances in June 2025, and Natanz enrichment plant entrances in March/April 2026, all of which were seen as logical denial of access attacks. Which additional tunnels Iran would have collapsed, and why the US would be concerned about this, is not included in the CNN report. We have also been reporting on measures that we assessed would facilitate or complicate retrieval of assets post June 2025, such as Iranian efforts during its rebuilding of entrances, activity near the entrances or weapon impact points, efforts to seal off entrances, and additions of earthen berms and chicanes along the roads. We also reported on events that would make ground offenses easier such as the destruction of defense establishments at the Fordow and Esfahan nuclear sites, or more difficult such as new Iranian revetments for military equipment along the road at Esfahan. The attacks on defensive sites did not surprise anyone and efforts by Iran to protect their assets should not either – they have been going on for months. In fact, following the June war, Iran quietly sealed a small tunnel complex just south of the Natanz enrichment plant. It also accessed two out of three Esfahan tunnel entrances in the fall of 2025, giving it ample opportunity to booby trap the entrances or even the inside of the northern tunnel portion, before it fully buried all entrances in February 2026.

Largely overlooked is the immediate benefit of Iran having increased the difficulty of accessing any material, such as enriched uranium, on short notice, making it less valuable in negotiations, less dangerous in the short term, and solidifying the assessments that Iran has no immediate use for the HEU, i.e. nothing resembling an enrichment plant. As a reminder, before June 2025, Iran also had 60 percent HEU in multiple locations, but together with the HEU, three fully functioning enrichment plants ready to produce weapons grade uranium within days and no guarantee of immediate detection (the IAEA was able to visit the enrichment plants once every few days but had no remote or real-time detection mechanism of diversion of HEU or changes in enrichment).

Figure 1 is a June 7 image of the Fordow enrichment plant, which shows the previously reported chicanes in larger numbers. It also shows small earthen piles near two of the tunnel entrances, which were added between May 3 and May 22. These earthen piles could be indicative of mines having been placed nearby but given the small size of even anti-tank mines, only very high-resolution imagery could show this. Figure 2 is a June 12 image of the Esfahan tunnel complex, and figure 3 is a May 29 image of the Natanz enrichment plant entrances. Figure 4 is a May 29 image of the Pickaxe mountain tunnel facility and nearby 2007 tunnel entrances. The 2007 tunnel entrances remain sealed. The eastern set of tunnel entrances for the pickaxe mountain facility has remained half buried since April 2026–as of now, this is the most likely “deliberately collapsed” tunnel, but it is not believed to hold HEU and we previously reported the burial. For more information, see: https://t.co/1oer7whmPu

[CasualtiesOfTheDay @Ayei_Eloheichem]

Iran has fired multiple drones toward commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Iran agreed to a memorandum of understanding Sunday, according to a U.S. official.

[Arash Behgoo @ArashBehgoo]

Still no post after 12 June. Not even after the SNSC members approved the MOU and JD Vance signed it (on 14 June).

[Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei @MKhamenei_ir]

I offer my condolences for this painful loss to the seminary of Najaf, to all the followers and admirers of this late Religious Authority, to particularly the resilient, steadfast people of Afghanistan, and to his honorable family.

[Arash Behgoo @ArashBehgoo]

I wish this were the case. But I see absolutely no sign that Vahid has transformed into some Joulani plus. If they have changed, why can't they change their behaviour? Why can't they at least update their rhetoric like Joulani did? Why are they still hanging Iranian protesters?

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Trump on Iran:

The current Iranian leadership are very rational people. They are nice to deal with; they are strong and smart people.

They are not radicalized, and they are looking to help their country.

[Kyle Orton @KyleWOrton]

"The notion that clerical supremacy in Iran has given way to a military junta under the IRGC should be regarded with scepticism", not least b/c "the more it is true that the IRGC are tightening their grip over Iran, the more powerful that makes Mojtaba." https://t.co/KMffrBymhn