Arash

Product manager, entrepreneur, big picture thinker

[Arash @arashtt]

@adamscochran In their calculations. Yet, there are calculations. Saying that he attacked because he is psychopath and murder doesn't explain anything imo.

[Arash @arashtt]

@adamscochran Rhetoric is, of course, propaganda. Your philosophy and analysis are grunded on the personalities and psychology of leaders. This assumes leaders, regardless of their cruelties, are illogical. A psychopath is not necessarily illogical person, human life's are just numbers...

[Manu Sisti @Manu_Sisti]

Here are 15 quotes by Winston Churchill that give me goosebumps every time I read them.

Don't just read them, absorb them.

[Nathan Baugh @nathanbaugh27]

In 2016, researchers at the University of Adelaide tested Kurt Vonnegut's theory that, "There’s no reason why the simple shapes of stories can’t be fed into computers."

They took the emotional arcs of 1300+ novels from Project Gutenberg, turned that into data, used modern tech to analyze the emotional arcs, and then identified 6 patterns seen over and over again in western storytelling.

Here they are:

1. Rags to Riches (rise)

Your classic underdog tale. A humble, hardworking peasant climbs the mountain to pull the sword from the stone.

• Rocky
• King Arthur
• The Pursuit of Happiness

2. Riches to Rags (fall)

Maybe the saddest story of them all. A journey from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows.

• King Lear
• Citizen Kane
• Scarlet Letter

3. Man in a Hole (fall then rise)

A character’s doing fine, gets herself into a huge problem, but figures out how to overcome it. They often end up better than they started.

“You see this story again and again,” Vonnegut says. “People love it, and it is not copyrighted.”

• The Martian
• The Hunger Games
• Shawshank Redemption

4. Icarus (rise then fall)

The hero goes on a meteoric rise up New York (or some other) society, calls everyone “old sport,” and throws the wildest parties in town. Then reality sets in, and he realizes he’s too close to the sun.

• Macbeth
• Great Gatsby
• Death of a Salesman

5. Cinderella (rise then fall then rise)

I’ll leave this description to Vonnegut:

“We’re gonna start way down here. Worse than that, who is so low? It’s a little girl… the shoe fits, and she achieves off-scale happiness.”

• Red Rising
• Slumdog Millionaire
• The Count of Monte Cristo

This is my personal favorite.

6. Oedipus (fall then rise then fall)

Up until the ~70% mark of the story it looks like things are sunshine and rainbows. Walter White goes from high school teacher to king of the drug lords, if you will. Then all goes wrong. The original fall is often not their doing while the final fall is.

• Hamlet
• Gone Girl
• Breaking Bad

My 3 takeaways:

1. Rags to Riches, Oedipus, and Cinderella rank as the three most popular with consumers. AKA, those books sold the most copies.

2. When you think through a story, give it an emotional shape. Literally draw it.

X axis: Time
Y axis: Ill fortune to good fortune

You might be surprised how much it helps you craft your plot (I was shocked).

3. Vonnegut was a damn genius.

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Parrots are intelligent enough to understand touch screen interfaces and they prefer watching videos of other parrots.

[📹 insta.beakk]

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Chiroptera, a project by JR, Damien Jalet and Thomas Bangalter, with Amandine Albisson, Etoile dancer from the Paris Opera Ballet, and 153 dancers on the exterior of the Opéra national de Paris
https://t.co/0MLIl1Zxo6

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Romania and its otherworldly salt mines

[📹 travelih]
https://t.co/fBB7kib4va

[Wonder of Science @wonderofscience]

This is what happens when galaxies collide; a billion year gravitational waltz.

This supercomputer simulation includes images from Hubble of actual galactic collisions at different stages.

📽: NASA, ESA, and F. Summers

[Kim Dotcom @KimDotcom]

Long read: This is potentially the most significant leak of military technology in history.

There is video evidence from 2014 that the US military is in possession of technology that most would describe as Alien. Objects that fly with some sort of gravity propulsion with unbelievable speed and maneuverability, shielded by a vacuum layer that can potentially penetrate anything.

These advanced objects seem to be able to create portals that can make a Boing 777 airliner disappear in an instant. This evidence has been out there for a decade but it took @ashtonforbes and his investigation to attract wider attention.

Many of you have seen the TicTac UFO videos filmed by US Navy jets in 2004. The 2014 evidence seems to suggest that this technology has been in the possession of the US military for a long time. The evidence is compelling because it was filmed from 3 different surveillance platforms simultaneously: 2 US spy satellites and 1 US military drone.

The leaked videos when combined create a problem for debunkers because the physics match up from different angles. It would take a gigantic effort to fake something like this.

This could be the most significant leak of military technology in history. Surely the US Govt will attempt to discredit it. But it’s now in the public domain and a crowd investigation is taking place.

The implications are enormous. If this technology is real it renders the nuclear deterrence of non-US nations meaningless. These objects can travel faster than any missile and create portals that can make any plane, missile, submarine or satellite disappear.

What makes this discovery so controversial is that this technology was allegedly used to make flight MH370 disappear. A tragedy that is surrounded by many conspiracy theories. How does a passenger plane vanish without a trace?

Please watch this video. I’m following developments closely. Several attempts were made to debunk the video evidence but none of them were credible. https://t.co/ccT1u9HiVn

You guys should take a look at this: @JoeRogan, @ElonMusk, @lexfridman

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

A better question would be:

"How small is the metals & mining industry?”

We simply cannot bring about the transition to green energy, achieve the re-shoring of developed economies, enhance manufacturing capabilities, modernize electrical grids, boost housing supply and inventory, substantially improve public infrastructure, and expand military efforts, all without making metals and mining a significantly more relevant part of the economy.

[Michael Shellenberger @shellenberger]

The FBI says it doesn’t retaliate against whistleblowers, and treats all its employees the same. But former agents said last spring they were punished for reporting abuses. And now, more have come forward to say that FBI is firing conservatives, Christians, and Covid skeptics.

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

Here's a chart of interest rates over seven centuries.

But something stands out: Where are all the Jewish loans?

Jews have had a reputation for making loans for centuries, but this analysis explicitly omits them. The reason is simple: Jewish loans were different.

Short🧵

[Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1]

Robert Friedland (@robert_ivanhoe) is one of the most important voices in Metals & Mining.

When he speaks, we should listen.

He recently gave a 40-minute speech on Green Energy, Electrification, Metal Scarcity, and more.

Here are my notes from the talk 👇

WHAT DOES "ENERGY TRANSITION" MEAN?

"You have a billion people that burn firewood to live. They have no access to electrical energy."

"We're burning more coal and more oil today than in the history of the world."

"We spent $4T putting up solar panels for hydrocarbons to still capture 83% of energy source."

"You're not going to stop global warming by buying an electric car."

ON ELECTRIC CARS & EV BATTERIES

"With current lithium ion technology, the destruction we cause, the global warming gas we cause, we might as well sit on our chairs and do nothing."

"You just bought your wife a coal-burning car by buying an EV."

"The current generation of EV batteries will be toast in 2-3 years."

"I would short every lithium company in the world."

"We're going to kill the lithium hydroxide business over time."

COMMON METALS VITAL FOR TRANSITION

"If we're going to have a transition, we need common and abundant materials. We can't rely on things like nickel."

"The batteries they're making now are low-grade lithium metal. You don't need nickel, cobalt, graphite, They're out the window."

"You want batteries made out of common materials so billions of people can use it."

WOMB TO TOMB EXAMINATION OF NET ZERO

"Look at the whole system if you're trying to eliminate global warming."

"The Chinese are saying 2060 and India is now saying 2070. What does that tell you?"

"There's zero chance that the twelve major automakers will find enough nickel to make their batteries."

"The amount of metal we need doesn't exist currently in a way that's green or sustainable. It's apparent to any readily intelligible person."

"How can we stop burning coal and oil and not have an energy transition?"

TWO COMPETING PARADIGMS

"We have two competing tribes. One tribe says 'I want to save the world, I'm green, I need cobalt, nickel, platinum, or palladium'. The other tribe says 'Holy shit, the Army/Navy wants these metals for national defense.'"

"The intensity of metal demand in conflict is beyond your wildest imagination. In WWI you needed a telescope to see the price of copper."

"So we're heading to a world where both tribes have a strong demand for more metals. We're balkenizing the world into two camps and its tearing the global supply chains apart."

A VERY DIFFICULT TIME

"It does appear that the world is warming, and there's zero chance we'll reduce that. The question is how bad will it get?"

"I was in CA recently, it was $6.20 per gallon. The average citizen is pissed off."

"I agree with Jamie Dimon that this is the most dangerous time since I've been alive."

"The Fed are idiots. They told us that inflation was over. And it's not even close."

WE NEED TO REINVENT THE MINING INDUSTRY

"First of all, we have to try to mine in the United States. No intelligent person has tried to do that in the last few generations."

"Everything is blown out of proportion because mining is viewed as a bad thing."

"We also have to determine what metals we actually need for the future. Which is copper."

"Imagine you're plugging an EV w/ 1MW charger. Our grid is literally a 110 year old lady waiting to die. The Chinese tell me it will take $21T to rebuild the electrical grid."

"Our grid is like balancing a pencil vertically on your palm. There's no storage there."

"The symbol of the US, the bald eagle, is flying into offshore windmills. They're just chewing them up. Who wants to live near them? They're very low density."

"At least real miners know how hard it is to actually find metals and mine it."

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

"A Google search requires 1,000 joules of electrical energy. You think its free, but its paid for by advertising."

"You think the internet is green? You know how much energy it requires to use AI/ChatGPT? You think Bitcoin/crypto is green?"

IMPORTANCE OF COPPER

"I don't know if we need gold. But I do know we need copper. And we need it really badly."

"Having said that, I'd rather there be gold in my copper. Because people will always want gold."

"People are getting rid of their excess copper because they're de-stocking to reduce their interest cost. But we're nearing the end of de-stocking and paper selling."

"This huge clash is coming between Army, Navy, Air Force and the Greening of the world economy. And the miners have an unbelievable burden to make that happen."

"At the same time we need these metals, its harder to get the equipment needed to mine the metal!"

"The miners have a very important role to play to supply the world with the metals it desperately needs."

IMPORTANCE OF SAUDI ARABIA

"If Saudi Arabia can't maintain basic energy security, we'll have $200-$300 oil. We need stability in that pricing. At $100-$300 oil, people in Egypt don't eat."

"Saudi is playing a beneficial role by keeping oil between $70-90 per barrel."

AUDIENCE Q&A

"The valuation of the mining industry relative to the S&P 500 is the lowest in living memory. The general person thinks that mining is evil and must be eliminated."

"50% of what goes into an EV is hydrocarbon. If we stopped producing oil, half of humanity would die from starvation."

"I don't think we understand how formidable the Chinese are."

"In a Balkenized economy, we went from a Just-in-Time supply chain to a Just-in-Case supply chain."

"How much metal do we need to build nuclear reactors? How much steel, concrete, rebar, nuclear engineers do you need to build these things?"

"The problem is that the world economy is Balkenized. Where is the steel coming from? Where are the pumps coming from? The French want nuclear power, and the Germans are burning coal. Even within Europe, its Balkenized. That's all I see."

"I think the mining industry needs to defend itself more. Where do you think stuff comes from? There's the hardware of the mine (tons, grade, engineering).

Then there's all the people around the mine (locals). There's invariably a clash with the locals around the mine. Unless they're buying into it, its not going to happen. That's the software around mining."

ON KNOWING WHERE THINGS COME FROM

"People don't realize where things come from. As people live in urban environments, they forget where things come from."

"We need to communicate the importance of mining and humanize it as an activity. We need to mine in the United States. We need to figure out what should be mined, where we're allowed to mine, and how."

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

In case Mercator projections have ruined your perception of continents' scales, this is the true size of Africa

[source, read more: https://t.co/oq9VKExEMx]
[hi-res: https://t.co/5U4F8Xorsh]

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

We seem to be entering a new era of Fiscal Dominance, in which the US government runs persistent deficits (which could force the Fed to be buyer of last resort). That likely has implications for the 60/40 investment strategy. 🧵

[Science girl @sciencegirl]

The skill to create the illusion of levitation

[Invest In Assets 📈 @InvestInAssets]

Peter Lynch once said:

«Never invest in a company without understanding its finances. The biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets.»

Here is a simple breakdown of how to analyze a balance sheet:

[Jack Farley @JackFarley96]

Losses mount on some regional banks' derivative books

Interest rate hedges (receive fixed // pay floating swaps) on variable rate loans have steep losses as rates have risen

A few examples from today...

1/8
🧵

[Historic Vids @historyinmemes]

The Schmidt Pain Index was the result of Dr. Justin Schmidt's remarkable endeavor where he willingly experienced the stings or bites of 78 different species of Hymenoptera, including bees, wasps, and ants, in an effort to quantify the pain intensity. Dr. Schmidt, an entomologist from Arizona, was driven by curiosity to understand the effects of these insect stings.

In 1983, he introduced the Schmidt Sting Pain Index, which rates the painfulness of various stingers on a scale from "0" (mild) to "4" (severe). For context, the common honey bee or wasp sting is rated as a "2" on this scale. However, the index goes beyond numerical ratings. Dr. Schmidt also provides qualitative descriptions of the pain and its duration in his assessments. The purpose of this index is to allow for scientific comparisons of the pain caused by stings from different species, using a four-point scale that simplifies the distinction between pain levels.