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stock market since 2004#familyoffice#Investing & trading#Behavioural finance#Saraf Management Investment Services#Broking#Twitter space for Personal notes

[Rossst.03 @Rossst_03]

https://t.co/ZGpOvAef8u

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

What William O’Neil Taught About Position Sizing, Discipline, and Letting Winners Run

[Brad @BradleyKellard]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb walked into Google and explained what Antifragility is and how the world actually works:

1. The opposite of fragile is not robust. That is the first mistake almost everyone makes. Robust means something does not care about volatility. The true opposite of fragile is something that actually benefits from disorder, volatility, and stress. He calls it antifragile.

2. If you are shipping something fragile you write handle with care on the box. The true opposite of that package would have please mishandle written on it. Something antifragile wants to be mishandled. It gets stronger from it.

3. Fragility is always about nonlinear harm. Jumping ten meters kills you. Jumping ten centimeters a hundred times does not. The harm accelerates disproportionately with size. That acceleration is the mathematical signature of fragility and it can be measured precisely.

4. Anything that has survived long enough to exist today must have this property. If harm were linear you would be destroyed just walking to the office. Everything that persists is built so that small stressors barely touch it but large unexpected shocks destroy it.

5. Large size creates fragility automatically. A hundred million pound project in the UK had thirty percent more cost overruns than a five million pound project doing the same thing. The bigger the stone the more the harm. Size and fragility are inseparable.

6. Governments and institutions make the same mistake constantly. They chase perfect stability and call it good management. But something organic requires variability to survive. Greenspan tried to eliminate all economic volatility. He called it the Great Moderation. What he actually did was allow hidden risk to accumulate invisibly until it exploded all at once.

7. Small forest fires clean out flammable material and prevent catastrophic ones. By eliminating small fires you guarantee a massive one eventually. The same principle applies to economies, banks, and any complex system. Suppressing volatility does not remove risk. It stores it.

8. The only way to make something genuinely robust is to embrace bipolar strategies rather than medium ones. Eighty percent of your portfolio in something safe and twenty percent in something highly speculative is more robust than putting everything in medium risk. The average of extremes beats the mediocre middle.

9. Everything organic communicates with its environment through stressors. Your body needs the gym. Your bones need stress. Your immune system needs exposure. Depriving any living system of the stressors it needs does not protect it. It weakens it invisibly.

10. What does not kill me makes others stronger is closer to the truth than what does not kill me makes me stronger. When a system gets stronger under stress it is usually because the weaker components were destroyed, not because the survivors individually improved. The system improves through the death of its fragile parts.

11. Trial and error is not the opposite of knowledge. It is a form of knowledge with a convex payoff. You lose little when you are wrong and gain enormously when you are right. That asymmetry is what makes tinkering more powerful than theoretical planning in unpredictable environments.

12. Most of what we attribute to theoretical knowledge actually came from tinkering that was dressed up afterward as having been scientifically planned. The Romans built extraordinary things for centuries without ever having heard of Euclidean geometry. Technology routinely precedes the science that supposedly explains it.

13. The fragilista is Taleb's name for the person who denies antifragility and causes damage through that denial. Bureaucrats, central planners, academics, and policy makers who overstabilize systems from the top down are fragilistas. They remove the volatility that systems need and call it improvement.

14. Seneca, the wealthiest man in the ancient world, trained himself every day to wake up as if he had lost everything. He would deliberately live as if he were on a shipwreck to ensure he always had more upside than downside. Having more to gain than to lose from random events is the definition of antifragility in personal life.

15. In medicine, convexity matters more than people realize. If you are very ill the potential benefit of treatment vastly outweighs the risk, so you should see ten doctors not one. If you are mildly ill the risks of intervention almost certainly outweigh the modest benefits. The problem is that mildly ill patients are five times more numerous than severely ill ones, which is exactly who pharmaceutical companies focus on.

16. Removing something unnatural from your life has almost no side effects. Adding something artificial always has multiplicative hidden effects. In complex systems less is almost always more. The via negativa, improving by subtraction rather than addition, is consistently underestimated.

17. The real ethical crisis of modern times is that the people making decisions do not bear the consequences of those decisions. Bankers take the upside. Society takes the downside. Economists give broken advice and face no consequences when it fails. Nothing improves in any field where the people who are wrong are not harmed by being wrong.

18. Time is the ultimate detector of fragility. Whatever is fragile will eventually be broken by time. Whatever has survived for a long time has demonstrated antifragility and will likely survive longer still. A book that has been read for three thousand years will probably be read for three thousand more. A technology that is forty years old has at least forty more years ahead of it.

19. The only way to know you are alive and not a machine is that you benefit from variability. If you like variation and gain from disorder you are antifragile. If you require peace and predictability to function you are fragile. It is as simple and as profound as that.

Before you go, can we stay in touch?

I'd love to share one email with you every Sunday that'll challenge how you think about business, money and freedom.

Stay in touch here:
https://t.co/VMTlilB7aq

[Abdul Sarfraj @techxsarfraj]

INSTEAD OF WATCHING AN HOUR OF NETFLIX TONIGHT.

This 1 hour Stanford lecture by Joel Peterson will teach you more about negotiation and getting what you want than most people learn in years.

Bookmark it and give it an hour, no matter what.

[kvro @0xkvro]

Persi Diaconis, Stanford mathematician and former professional magician:

"The hardest thing in probability is accepting that a tiny edge can be real."

This free lecture explains one of the core ideas behind quantitative trading: markets don't need to be predictable. They only need to be slightly less random than everyone thinks.

The best quant funds aren't looking for certainty. They're looking for a small statistical advantage that can be repeated thousands of times and sized correctly.

The mathematics behind it has been public for decades. The lecture is free. The theory is old.

The hard part was never finding the formula. The hard part was trusting a small edge long enough for the numbers to prove you right.

Bookmark this before it gets buried in your feed.

[The Shift Journal @TheShiftJournal]

Malcolm Gladwell explained why some people succeed and some don't.

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

Master Trading Psychology in 83 Minutes (The Skill That Separates Winners From Losers)

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

"Unless you learn to completely accept the possibility of an uncertain outcome, you will try either consciously or unconsciously to avoid any possibility you define as painful.”

― Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline, and a Winning Attitude

[Jota @jota_snchez]

Conor Neill es un profesor de IESE que lleva 25 años demostrando que la suerte no es azar: viaja a través de las personas y las conversaciones.

Reveló 7 formas de multiplicar la suerte que llega a tu vida:

1/ Conoce a una persona nueva cada semana.

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

“The best traders don’t try to predict every move—they manage risk and execute their edge consistently. Your job isn’t to be right on every trade; it’s to follow your plan with discipline. In the long run, consistency beats certainty every time.”
Mark Douglas

[theendeavorpath @theendeavorpath]

“Contentment is natural wealth, luxury is artificial poverty.”

— Socrates

[Shubhvani @shubhvanii]

🍂

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

A Visual Breakdown of The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene:

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

Marcus Aurelius wrote this over 1800 years ago:

“Until death, all defeat is psychological.”

[st1ne @SolSt1ne]

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just released the 35-min edited version of the 90-min master class he gave to 400 of his top executives.

- complacency, arrogance and bureaucracy kill companies.
he explains exactly how to fight all three.

35-min and you'll learn the management playbook of the CEO
who has run America's largest bank for 20 years.

bookmark - the most practical management lecture from Wall Street.

[Advait Arora @WealthEnrich]

Take risks, Seize Your Luck ! 💯

[Vivek @Vivek_Investor]

Folks, bookmark this for your weekend watch.

https://t.co/VPMN9yNNoH

[Swati Gupta @hrswatigupta]

The airline lost my bag for 72 hours.

They handed me a $50 “courtesy” voucher at the baggage desk and smiled like they’d done me a favor.

I kept the voucher. Then I opened my laptop and used a 1999 international treaty they never mention at check-in.

Total recovered: $1,650.

Here are the three legal weapons most passengers never know they have.

[Rony @Ronycoder]

This 32-min Stanford lecture by Graham Weaver will teach you more about living boldly than 10 years of self-help books.

Bookmark it and give it 32 minutes, no matter what. It’s the best way to start your week.

[Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar]

“One woman practicing sportsmanship is far better than a hundred teaching it.”