@LSDinmycoffee good compressions
FET (4h ema200 should protect downside)
https://t.co/uc9civ6Jc1
CAKE (1d ema200 should protec)
https://t.co/ALUXdtRmus
@LSDinmycoffee thoughts on the eth 3d compression?
looks like it's going to pop but not sure where to set SL on it - something like no closes under 2360
https://t.co/o3L7YImxjO
Seeing a lot of posts explaining why this cycle is different to the last, many pointing to 'retail' not seeing novelty in crypto anymore, having been wrecked in 2021 or just not having stimmy's to gamble away, but there are a few other reasons I think there is a good argument why we may not repeat the euphoria of 2021.
This is more of a ramble, some points shooting from the hip, but it's something i'm spending more time thinking about with each passing day.
Disclaimer: I AM NOT FOR A SECOND SAYING THE TOP IS IN.
1โฃ Restaking: This one isn't spoken of enough imo. Between Eigen Layer, Swell, Renzo, Kelp and probably a half dozen others I haven't mentioned, many are retaining more of their portfolio in ETH to farm various airdrops, and have been doing so since the market really took off last year. Could this change after all the tokens are live? sure. But it could also explain some of the reasons why we haven't seen the same euphoria of previous cycle so far just yet in alts. AND YES I KNOW THAT FOR WHALES THE GAME IS TO ACCUMULATE AS MUCH ETH AS POSSIBLE, but for your Average JO traders with 5-6fig portfolio's who's trying to 'make it'
would likely have been allocating that same capital to on-chain alts.
Despite having lower capital tied up in restaking protocols it's still a numbers game.
2โฃTax Farms: Many of the top performers on-chain from 2023 and 2024 have been 5/5 tokens. While many have been blatant rugs, others have used the funds to scale operations and provide runway to the team, fair enough. But those funds are unlikely to ever re-enter the casino.
3โฃ Memecoins: This could be viewed in two ways, and most likely with a salty taste. While people are pointing to AI, DePIN and others as the 'major narratives' of this cycle. Maybe this is actually the cycle for memes, drawing liquidity away from your Average JO FA trader waiting for his project with a revenue/mcap or TVL/mcap ratio with a million fake users farming rewards that in previous cycles would have constituted a 10x rally. So maybe this isn't so much a 'we arent likely to see a cycle like that last', rather you aren't looking in the right place.
4โฃ Ease Of Fundraising: In short TOO EASY! At this point I wouldn't be suprised if it is the same few devs and teams running a lot of these projects on Fjord and other launchpads. Uncapped raises, no barrier to entry, an army of KOL's (myself included at times), only for teams to rarely deliver or after the euphoria settles everyone realizes the amount raised and associated valuation is far greater than the value proposition.. and that's before considering the teams ability to ship and/or lack of accountability we are seeing more and more from anon teams.
5โฃ We Are Retail: Having been through so many cycles we're reaching the point where everyone that has an interest in entering the casino this cycle is already here, and in-fact never left. Will there be a new wave of Exit Liquidity?
This post is intentionally focussing on 'why this cycle could be different for the worse', but there is a lot we can argue to the contrary;
1โฃ BTC & ETH ETF approvals sending a signal to the world that crypto is here to stay, with the latter being extremely bullish for altcoins
2โฃFor you macro guru's - liquidity cycles! we are still relatively early in the liquidity cycle. As well as rates having not yet been cut
3โฃ We're just too early in the 4-year cycle... 'This time it's different' mantra hasn't ended well for people in the past, and historically we don't enter bull market territory until several months after the BTC halvening, notwithstanding BTC's early ATH this time around.
I think for many this is very much a make or break cycle. Don't let anyones words including my own influence you, my only request is that you have a plan, set a target, and most importantly, have an exit strategy.
The foals I purchased at age 0 and 1 have performed fairly well. I want to share some tips that may help you pick out your next horse.
A couple of purchases and their current records:
S- Redwood Shadow 15 (5-3-1)
Initial Cost: 38k DERBY
S- Storm Trooper 29 (6-2-1)
Initial Cost: 55k DERBY
๐งต๐
@CryptoUB Finally understood you need to play offence and defense. Feels like it's critical to choose when to increase exposure and when to reduce.
Also trading is the biggest battle with myself. Ironing out so many kinks in my personality.