Ari Rogoff

🇺🇸 NATO and MIC enjoyer

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

This is part two of my series on Myanmar(formerly Burma), Part one will be linked in the comments. I will primarily focus on the election of Aung San Suu Kyi, or Suu Kyi for short and the subsequent coup against her. Part Three will be on the Civil War.
Background
Myanmar has been run a military dictatorship fronted by various leaders of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's military) since a coup in 1962. The military has then fought and imprisoned both ethnic militias and pro democracy activists.
Aung San Suu Kyi
Suu Kyi was is an ethnic Burman born in 1945. Her parents were Aung San, a Burmese independence activist who aided the Japanese before switching sides and aiding the British, and Khin Kyi a Burmese politician and diplomat. While overseas at university, she would meet and marry Michael Aris, a british academic. During a period of weakness from the military government in 1988, Aung San Suu Kyi would return to Burma. Suu Kyi joined pro-democracy protests and quickly became a popular figure. She would found the National League for Democracy(NLD) a liberal democratic party. In elections held in 1990, the NLD would command a sizeable majority, however, the military simply refused the results of the election and declared the NLD illegal. It was at this point that Suu Kyi would win the Nobel Peace Prize. Over the next 21 years, Suu Kyi would spend 15 of them under house arrest. She was charged with various fraudulent charges and not allowed to see her husband. While imprisoned there was widespread international calls for her release. Following a period of liberalization, Suu Kyi would be released in 2010. At the time she was massively popular.
Elections
The first election that the NLD headed by Suu Kyi would challenge was the 2012 By-elections for a handful of seats in the Myanmar parliment. They would win 43/45 seats. Suu Kyi would be elected as a member of Parliment, though not a member of the government
In 2015 there was another election for the Parliment, in this election the NLD would win a supermajority in the parliament which would be enough to outvote the military votes( in the Myanmar constitution the Tatmadaw got votes for various appointments). However, Aung San Suu Kyi would be constitutionally barred from the government(the military wrote the constitution) as her husband and children are foreign citizens. Instead, the NLD created a position of State Counsellor which is the equivalent of Prime Minister. She would take that role in 2016.
Tenure as State Counsellor
While State Counsellor Suu Kyi would take a variety of measures. One of which was granting amnesty to many who protested a bill. However, conflict would continue in the Shan and Rakhine states and journalists were still arrested(though at a lesser rate than military rule). She would also receive criticism for her economic policies and relatively unilateral form of governance.
Her most controversial actions internationally were her actions during the Rohingya Genocide. Suu Kyi would do little to protect the Rohingya and did not grant citizenship. This earned her widespread internatinoal condemnation, however, it only made her even more popular in Myanmar. In the 2021 elections her party won an even larger supermajority than it did in 2015.
Coup
The immense popularity of Suu Kyi seriously threatened the militaries grasp of power in the country. Even with a loaded constitution, they would have to surrender even more power due to her large supermajority. On the morning of February 1st, Suu Kyi and her advisors were taken prisoner by an Army raid. Over the following days, nearly the entire parliment along with thousands of those believed to be loyal to Suu Kyi were arrested. Widespread protests broke out almost immediately. The new Junta would face widespread international condemnation, though literal material consequences. In response to widespread protests, the military used lethal force, killing thousands of protestors. Tactics included executing protestors in their houses, running them over with vehicles, and airstrikes. Numerous ethnic militias who had previously either had a ceasefire or lowered intensity conflict began preparing. The military violent suppression failed to crush resistance, and the resistance stopped taking to the streets and started taking up arms. On April 16th, those NLD members who escaped arrest formed the National Unity Government(NUG), government in exile.On May 5, three months after the coup, the NUG, formed the Peoples Defense Forces(PDF) and the war in Myanmar started.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@Doha104p3 Real. I just hope the kurds end up ok.

HTS and Assad are both objectively evil.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@openbb_finance @didier_lopes

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@astraiaintel @LeonRusskiy Maybe Serbia shouldn't genocide.
https://t.co/RNvNsEikeG

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@usgeneral25 I don't believe we have f-35s in Incirlik(I could be wrong but all i found was f 15s, C130s, and b-1 bombers). Mostly because of the S-400s.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@Adhi_Sekar Feds change the source of how all interest rates are priced( fed funds rate).
More borrowing, "cheaper" money, and debt is cheaper(mortgages, industrial loans etc.)
May lead to more inflation and less levers to pull if the economy goes down.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@usgeneral25 Due to NATO commitments in the Baltics and a potential cost of a Taiwan conflict it is actually cheaper to aid Ukraine than for them to lose and force forward positioning of soldiers and increased danger to our trade lanes globally.
Europe buying Russian gas is bad though.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@usgeneral25 Yeah title just lies.

Ukraine hadn't received enough military aid from the foreign partners to equip "even four out of 14" Ukrainian army brigades that the country "needs to be ready"

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@panickssery You are thinking about ROE which for walmart is 15.4%
Margin is they sell something for $1.03 and it costs $1 (including rent shipping and administration) for a 3% margin.
Walmart has ~$90 billion in equity and over $600 billion in sales.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@GrandpaRoy2 We have anduril at home.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@Doha104p3 Drones need to be fully autonomous with onboard computing and targeting before they can truly start to replace instead of supplement manned systems.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@eat_your_lasers Bad, but can likely sustain itself for another 1-2 years. Employment is near full, which means that additional drafts will hurt. Their exchange fund is depleted to about half. They have an interest rate of 18% to try and fight inflation.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@usgeneral25 Kinda, but it's still a bit of a misleading statistic. Just thought I'd give a different idea on the scale.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@astraiaintel @ylecun Yann Lecun is probably one of the best people to listen to on AGI and machine learning. It's hard to disagree with his conclusions and thoughts on LLMs and the future of AI

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@war_noir Any idea what those twin guns are on the t-55? They look kinda like twin Type 54 HMG(Chinese DSHK clones).

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@secretsqrl123 M113 and M109 still in use( though upgraded).

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@John_A_Ridge Looks like a good idea. South Korea has a similar system.

[Ari Rogoff @ari_rogoff]

@david_lisovtsev Seems pretty useful if its pretty cheap. South Korea has a similar system. A mobile 105mm sounds like a good idea.