Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

William J. Perry Lecturer at @StanfordCISAC & Distinguished Fellow at @fpri, host of the @ACWpodcast, member @theNASEM CISAC, ex-ISAB at @StateDep

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

Thank you for your extremely good-faith criticism. I will give it the attention it deserves.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

The Second Economic Commission (and friends) watching its football team (Ponghwa) get trounced 4-1 by the Missile Administration (Hwasong). I imagine they made the same faces when Kim called Yang Sung Ho "a goat yoked to an ox cart."

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@BradNumbers0451 @AviN102 As much as I dislike Ms. Jacobsen, that seems a little harsh given that his reply was polite.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

Watching this monster torture another field of study is incredibly amusing. She’s your problem now bioengineers!

[Annie Jacobsen @AnnieJacobsen]

🔥Get it before it sells out.

BIOLOGICAL WAR: A SCENARIO ☣️
...a lab accident, a highly contagious genetically modified variant of pneumonic plague, a global pandemic, the collapse of human society...
https://t.co/BVFMa5wLcA

[Avi Norowitz @AviN102]

@ArmsControlWonk Seems wrong to call a person a monster because (I presume) you believe their communications on nuclear war have been bad.

[Gigi Gronvall @ggronvall]

For people who are treating Annie Jacobsen as if she has any insight into disease response or security, please stop. The book is abiological. It’s not how anything works. She’s a gripping writer, but her message (and facts) are just wrong. More on that later.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@Peter_Bucci I can’t see the next boom being anything other than an AI doom book.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@RocketSchiller Looking back, I see what might be a hatch on the prior launch. Maybe its to fiddle with the TVC system? Very strange.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

That looks like a two-stage booster to me.

[Tal Inbar @inbarspace]

Latest missile launch by North Korea.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@RocketSchiller I also found that strange, as well as the fact that I don't see the cable raceways.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@novadoesit @yugoslav_luka @SimAnnealing That image is from India. Here's one from Iran and another from Japan. They're all similar: a rigid nozzle on a flexible rubber-and-steel bearing with a pair of actuators pushing/pulling in pitch and yaw.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@novadoesit @yugoslav_luka @SimAnnealing The image illustrates the method since the North Korean nozzle is covered by a skirt.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

I got a kick out of what looks like the longer version online. https://t.co/WdF4KmId60

[Lyle Goldstein @lylegoldstein]

Chinese strategists assess the effectiveness of Iran's hypersonic missiles. Jianchuan Zhishi, 7.2026

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@Trident2Gold I was also a supporter.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

JLENS!

[Alexander Riccio (@co2trackers) @ariccio]

@ArmsControlWonk Maybe some day blimps will return, but as radar platforms

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

If you flew the thing ballistically ...

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

DPRK Missile Administration (left) v. Thrusty (right). Modeled assuming a modified Hwasong-11 booster.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

Kim Yo Jong's comments match both the diagram the DPRK released and my own rough modeling. I have previously worried the ranges reported by the ROK/Japan were the booster dipping below ground radars, missing the pull-up and glide.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

Maybe the trajectory was a little more out to sea.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@planet4589 The booster burnouts out at ~2.2 km/s.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

Kim Yo Jong's comments match both the diagram the DPRK released and my own rough modeling. I have previously worried the ranges reported by the ROK/Japan were the booster dipping below ground radars, missing the pull-up and glide.

[Joseph Dempsey @JosephHDempsey]

https://t.co/Gft8XFwDy1
The KCNA statement from Kim Yo Jong that has stirred some further ambiguity about this launch...

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

@planet4589 You could do it with a slightly better version of the Hwasong-11/KN-23.