I keep being asked. How long can France go on with budget deficits and increasing debt until we get a crisis? The answer: I cannot tell. Not because I am particularly dumb (this is a separate issue). But because there is a potentially large danger zone, where the crisis may or may not happen, depending on the whims of investors. Given our debt and our deficit, we have probably entered the danger zone.
If investors continue to be relatively relaxed, they require only a small risk spread, the interest bill may not be too large, and debt, while high, may be sustainable. But, if for some reason, they worry and require a large spread, the interest bill explodes, debt becomes unsustainable, and this triggers a crisis. To be nerdy about it: both equilibria are rational equilibria. Investors beliefs are confirmed in both cases.
The investors’ whims could literally come out of nowhere: Investors waking up in bad mood. More likely they are triggered by some news, a good poll number for an extremist party, a bad supply shock, the failed passage of a law. The news may be small, but it may lead to a very large adjustment, with a sharp spike in the rate. Or it may not. One cannot tell.
The lesson for budget policy? Avoid bad budget news as much as you can. 😊 Provide good budget news, even small ones, as much as you can. 😊 This is good on its own. And it reduces the risk of a shift to the bad equilibrium, the risk of a costly fiscal and potentially financial crisis.
Are extroverts really better leaders than introverts? Susan Cain, bestselling author of 'Quiet, The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking', shares what the research shows. Tune in to the podcast!
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#InGoodCompany
At the Lagos Free Zone (@LFZTolaram) and Lekki Deep Sea Port @LekkiPort in Lagos, Nigeria. Looking at the potential of Special Economic Zones to spur industrialization and increase value-added trade. Many thanks for the warm welcome by MD of LFZ, Ms. Adesuwa Ladoja, and ED of Tolaram Group, Mr. Navin Nahata.
The central government has issued the "15th Five-Year Plan" for Expanding Consumption, setting the roadmap for the consumer sector.
Key goals for the automotive industry include:
1️⃣Expanding Auto Consumption: Driving innovation across the entire sales and circulation chain. This means boosting the used-car market and scaling up the aftermarket, specifically targeting car tuning, rentals, motorsports, and RV camping.
2️⃣Accelerating Autonomous Driving: Speeding up the legalization of L3 and L4 autonomous vehicles on public roads, with vehicle access standards and right-of-way policies to be gradually defined.
3️⃣Scaling Charging Infrastructure: Deploying 40 million charging stations nationwide to support a fleet of 100 million EVs. This includes hitting 9 million public charging piles and a total public charging capacity of 500 million kW.
Source: https://t.co/UStqrqE878
#ChinaEV #NEV
The @WorldBankGroup just updated its global country income classifications.
In Africa, Togo moved from Low income to Lower-middle income & Ethiopia moved from Unclassified to Low Income.
Here's the 2026-2027 Africa breakdown:
🟡 High income — 1 country
🔵 Upper-middle income — 8 countries
🟣 Lower-middle income — 24 countries
🔴 Low income — 21 countries
⚫ Unclassified — 1 country
Here's the full country-by-country list:
🟡 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 (1)
🇸🇨 Seychelles
🔵 𝗨𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿-𝗺𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 (8)
🇩🇿 Algeria
🇧🇼 Botswana
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea
🇬🇦 Gabon
🇱🇾 Libya
🇲🇺 Mauritius
🇿🇦 South Africa
🟣 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿-𝗺𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 (24)
🇦🇴 Angola
🇧🇯 Benin
🇨🇲 Cameroon
🇰🇲 Comoros
🇨🇬 Congo, Rep.
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire
🇩🇯 Djibouti
🇪🇬 Egypt
🇸🇿 Eswatini
🇬🇭 Ghana
🇬🇳 Guinea
🇰🇪 Kenya
🇱🇸 Lesotho
🇲🇷 Mauritania
🇲🇦 Morocco
🇳🇦 Namibia
🇳🇬 Nigeria
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe
🇸🇳 Senegal
🇹🇿 Tanzania
🇹🇬 Togo
🇹🇳 Tunisia
🇿🇲 Zambia
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
🔴 𝗟𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 (21)
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso
🇧🇮 Burundi
🇨🇫 Central African Republic
🇹🇩 Chad
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo
🇪🇷 Eritrea
🇪🇹 Ethiopia
🇬🇲 Gambia
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau
🇱🇷 Liberia
🇲🇬 Madagascar
🇲🇼 Malawi
🇲🇱 Mali
🇲🇿 Mozambique
🇳🇪 Niger
🇷🇼 Rwanda
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone
🇸🇴 Somalia
🇸🇸 South Sudan
🇸🇩 Sudan
🇺🇬 Uganda
⚫ 𝗨𝗻𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗱 (a temporary status generally attributed to incomplete or insufficient GNI data)
🇪🇭 Western Sahara
➜ https://t.co/8vi6JpoBJk
“There remains a rest, as it were, on the Sabbath to the people of God. For such whom have entered into this rest (in Christ, Matt 11:28) hath ceased from working, as did God on the seventh day. Therefore strive daily to enter the seventh, lest we fall because of unbelief”
@DentonKollar And it shall come to pass, ‘just like I have watched over them to pluck up, and to breakdown, and to throw down, and to destroy, and afflict, so will I watch over them to build up and to plant’, says our God