Aron Lund

Syria, Middle East politics, and Mediterranean security at @FOIresearch. Fellow at @CenturyIntl, @SyriaStudies, and @UIsweden and occasional freelance writer.

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

🔥 Just out: My new @SCEEUS_UI report on Russia’s Middle East policy after the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

Russia must now make a choice: will it dig down alongside Iran or recalibrate to protect its interests?

https://t.co/TGJva9SrJR @UISweden @ResearchUI

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

“U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged having called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crazy in an expletive-filled phone exchange over fighting in Lebanon”

https://t.co/FfDCVWT9uJ

[Marc Caputo @MarcACaputo]

“What the fuck are you doing?!” Trump lit into Netanyahu over the Lebanon bombing:

“You're fucking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this."

@BarakRavid & I

https://t.co/b1lEZEmN6p

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Iran acts like it won the war and it has a strong hand in Hormuz, but its economy is falling apart and may spark new rounds of anti-regime protests. Worst inflation figures since 1942, according to @APNews.

@ncarrimi @sammymagdy @jongambrellAP: https://t.co/iAWv6Tpgth

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

The US-brokered ceasefires in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Persian Gulf do not seem to involve much ceasing of fire.

@APNews’s @metzsam on the Trump administration’s inability—despite all the chest-thumping about its dealmaking skills—to make deals that stick.

https://t.co/CHd0aSFPQm

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Informative @MiddleEastInst interview with @ColbyAntonius about how and when Gulf energy exports might resume after a USA-Iran deal.

https://t.co/tm6J8AOjXd

[Financial Times @FT]

Sea of tents in heart of Beirut lays bare Lebanon’s crisis https://t.co/M1lYMQGb6l

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

“Israeli defence sector exports grew nearly 30% in 2025 to a record $19.2 ​billion, led by missile, rocket, and air ‌defence systems”

• Europe 36%
• Asia-Pacific 32%
• Middle East–North Africa 15%
• North America 13%

@Reuters: https://t.co/Xu2kRcftj8

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Israel’s arms industry is doing fine, despite or because of it all, reports @APNews’s @sammednick. https://t.co/AMFLHDKFPQ

[FT Europe @ftbrussels]

EU frets as China builds an industrial base in Morocco https://t.co/YbMudOQfMw

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

These @akmckeever reports from Syria’s ex-SDF areas are great. Full of historical and local detail. Recommended if you follow Syria.

• Raqqa: https://t.co/haEXCv2RnH
• Efrin: https://t.co/IQpRLWZZV3
• Sheikh Maqsoud: https://t.co/TO85cVdk21

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Russia sent new supplies to the Hmeymim Air Base in Syria, indicating it is really there to stay—in some form.

@laraseligman & @jmalsin, @WSJ:

https://t.co/HOTtKL00tZ

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

On the emergence of multiple, mostly Idleb-centric regional and family networks in the new Syrian state, with places like Halfaya substituting for Assad’s Qardaha, by Kamal Shahin for @newlinesmag. https://t.co/cXv388pkff

[Marc Caputo @MarcACaputo]

“What the fuck are you doing?!” Trump lit into Netanyahu over the Lebanon bombing:

“You're fucking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this."

@BarakRavid & I

https://t.co/b1lEZEmN6p

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

@RZimmt Yes, I guess so. Strangely phrased, though.

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Direct U.S. talks with Hezbollah? https://t.co/DifdIF7jtr

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Harrowing testimony from Israel’s war in Gaza, by @Wendell23 for @TheEconomist.

https://t.co/Bn2i5o0uRQ

[Thanassis Cambanis @tcambanis]

Hezbollah supposedly was finished.

@simaghaddar explains what we know about its comeback on Order from Ashes @CenturyIntl

Listen here

https://t.co/bVRBt8h3Nn

https://t.co/9nh5JEiiUn

https://t.co/344meKvPcw

https://t.co/5fkuJTekFf

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Barrack gets a new title (or actually two) so he can continue doodling his old job. https://t.co/47IC87pIVt

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Test of leverage—of Iran over the United States and of the United States over Israel. https://t.co/dahgX4qlRz

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Useful @nytimes writeup by @farnazfassihi and @ErikaSolomon of the most recent U.S.-Iran draft and current disputes, as described by both sides. https://t.co/k5oDcE82g4

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Iran not on board: https://t.co/vaWk6NCSOm

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🚨Scoop: U.S. and Iran reach deal but need Trump's final approval, two U.S. officials and a regional source involved in the mediation efforts told me. My story on @axios
https://t.co/V8YwY6UY0X

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Not that Iranian leaders are more trustworthy, but previous U.S. administrations certainly were. And it’s the United States—not Iran—that has come to the table offering a promise to restrain Israel, which, at this point, no one either inside or outside Iran believes it can do.

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

Trump’s ceasefire handed Israel 53% of Gaza, but it has since expanded to 64% and Netanyahu now orders the army to seize 70%.

Andrea Popescu & Rami Ayyub, @reuters: https://t.co/ocFmd6zjzu

[Aron Lund @aronlund]

At least some of Trump’s difficulty in getting to a deal with Iran surely stems from the fact that none of his previous deals appears to be worth the paper it was written on. It adds quite a serious credibility problem to a negotiation where there is zero trust to begin with.