Arpan Sen

Loves programming, puzzles, black tea, science fiction and financial markets in no specific order

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products.

My Take
The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested.

This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown.

Hedgie🤗

[Dr.She @drshe227]

10days ago at 8.48 am I got a call from my sister while I was sitting in OT and patient was being shifted to OT table. 1st call and I could here only she in calling my name and disconnected. Normally I don't pick calls in morning when inside OT but that day I picked.

[Himanta Biswa Sarma @himantabiswa]

What If China Stops Brahmaputra Water to India?
A Response to Pakistan’s New Scare Narrative

After India decisively moved away from the outdated Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan is now spinning another manufactured threat:
“What if China stops the Brahmaputra’s water to India?”

Let’s dismantle this myth — not with fear, but with facts and national clarity:

💧 Brahmaputra: A River That Grows in India — Not Shrinks

🇨🇳 China contributes only ~30–35% of the Brahmaputra’s total flow — mostly through glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall.

🇮🇳 The remaining 65–70% is generated within India, thanks to:
•Torrential monsoon rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya
•Major tributaries like Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, Kopili
•Additional inflows from the Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills via rivers such as Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi

➤ At the Indo-China border (Tuting): Flow is ~2,000–3,000 m³/s
➤ In Assam plains (e.g., Guwahati): Flow swells to 15,000–20,000 m³/s during monsoon

The Brahmaputra is not a river India depends on upstream — it is a rain-fed Indian river system, strengthened after entering Indian territory.

⚠️ The Truth that Pakistan should know -

💡 Even if China were to reduce water flow (unlikely as China has never threatened or indicated in any official forum), it may actually help India mitigate the annual floods in Assam, which displace lakhs and destroy livelihoods every year.

Meanwhile, Pakistan — which has exploited 74 years of preferential water access under the Indus Waters Treaty — now panics as India rightfully reclaims its sovereign rights.

Let’s remind them:

Brahmaputra is not controlled by a single source — it is powered by our geography, our monsoon, and our civilisational resilience
#Brahmaputratruth

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

Either the government talk about 1947 or 2047. Nothing about today's India. Government needs to learn a thing or two about living in the present. Today's India very badly need the focus.

[Rituparna Chatterjee @MasalaBai]

I don't think people elsewhere fully grasp what's happening in NCR and just how hot it is. At 7am, the tap water is boiling hot. The sun hurts the eye. There's no night time anymore. For 24 hours the temperature feels above 40C. Which means during night the water is as hot

[Akshat Shrivastava @Akshat_World]

This is going Viral on Twitter today:

HDFC Bank Manager thrashing his junior for not selling enough insurance.

Easy to sit back and criticise the Manager here.
But understand the deeper issue:

[1] This is the case with almost all the corporates & Startups, not just HDFC.

LIC agents for example: have been known for mis-selling a lot of investment products, just to meet their sales targets.

[2] Most sales teams are given difficult targets to achieve by the higher authorities.

Sales agents/RMs are abused by customers, their bosses and their super-bosses.

This targets keeps getting more and more difficult by the year.

[3] If they wish to survive and feed their family: Sell, by hook or crook.

Any solution? Yes. The firms should not grow beyond a point.

There is no infinite growth in a finite world.

[Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA @GRDecter]

It's here: Tuttle just filed a prospectus for the Inverse Cramer ETF with the SEC.

Finally, a way to outperform the market.

[Azhar Jafri @zhr_jafri]

4 hotshot YT influencers who promoted Vauld in the past

- PR Sundar
- Ankur Warikoo
- Akshat Srivastav
- Booming Bulls

Now you know who not to turn to for investment advice. Hope that the investors get their money back.

[Arpan Sen @arpansen]

I reached a lifetime climb of 20,000 floors and earned the Shooting Star badge today with Fitbit! https://t.co/PPYqnsAH9K #Fitstats

[Arpan Sen @arpansen]

Its never been clear to me why SEBI has allowed loss making firms to list. And if they did allow that, why would you allow public money (mutual funds) to be invested in stocks like PayTM? Whose interest is the regulator protecting? https://t.co/CInPmbCxa1

[n jayakumar @jakesprime]

No company is ordained to be valued higher over time, not PayTM for sure - where a clear path to destroy value has been laid out, where businesses are happily bleeding, where focus is non-existent and where the management is hell bent on transforming from

[Social Allie🤘 @social_allie]

There will always be an infinite list of things to do.

Accept it and shut your laptop at a reasonable time each night.

You won’t regret it.

[Arpan Sen @arpansen]

I reached a lifetime climb of 14,000 floors and earned the Spaceship badge today with Fitbit! https://t.co/PPYqnsAH9K #Fitstats

[Deepak Shenoy @deepakshenoy]

Pls help

[Arpan Sen @arpansen]

Answer to Do you think that the salary bubble created during the COVID in the Indian IT industry will result in massive layoffs in the coming years? by Arjun Bhasin https://t.co/EIkTdphhKd

[Richa Pinto @richapintoi]

What is the #number you see below? I saw 15283

[Arpan Sen @arpansen]

@animal_equality These ppl need jail tern and the farm needs human owners

[Animal Equality UK @animal_equality]

Being shown on #BBCPanorama tonight, our undercover investigator filmed this horrific violence to cows on a dairy farm in South Wales ⬇️

[Arpan Sen @arpansen]

@malpani I have been a CXO for a while in the Indian fintech space. If there's a way I can help I would most certainly like to help. We need books like these.

[Arpan Sen @arpansen]

@Suhelseth @Hyundai_Global has just shot themselves in their feet. Their cars are good, why not focus on that instead of things that don't create any value? Anyway it's late now, unless there's an apology but even then they have already dented the brand.

[Mitesh Patel @Mitesh_Engr]

ITC investor. No fear.