Arvind Chari

Politics, Economics, India Investing, Global Macro—🙄; Travel, Food, Wildlife, BioDiversity, Progressive Rock 😎

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Global India Insights

A Journey to understand what drives global institutional investors and their implications and impact on India investing

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[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

https://t.co/eKEDosKlNM

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@EmergingRoy Sir convoy is the new Lal batti

Previously , with Lal batti, people could see mantri ji hein or yaar koi mantri wantri lagta hein

With no Lal batti, how will they announce their power to the local people
ki mantri ji jaa rahen hein

Convoy does it for them

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Lal batti has been replaced with car convoys

19 cars towed,
So how many cars were there in the convoy

Why?

[Press Trust of India @PTI_News]

VIDEO | Ratlam, Madhya Pradesh: As many as 19 vehicles of CM Mohan Yadav's convoy had to be towed after water was reportedly filled instead of diesel in them. The petrol pump was later sealed over fuel contamination.

#MPNews #MadhyaPradeshNews

(Full video available on PTI Videos - https://t.co/bIyFWTfmBd)

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Convoy is the new 'Lal Batti'

https://t.co/zeZQqfqcuP

[Mohammed Futurewala @MFuturewala]

Convoy of Mr Nitin Gadkari; no electric cars, no ethanol cars.. All diesel cars…Master Stroke…Jai Ho…

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

RBI - capital flows

1) Tax cuts, FAR for Blbrg Agg Index inclusion (looks unlikely)
2) FCNR swap subsidy - Even at a 6%$ FCNR FD rate, flows to be ~USD20-40bn?)
3) RBI will net out O/s FX fwd sale
4) Front end Corp bond yields for arb.

@ananthng @latha_venkatesh @dugalira

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Thoughts on RBI actions:

1) oil ~$95/brl, CPI 5.1% and neutral stance suggests they want to consider impact of El Nino before hiking rates - rate action would be August/October
2) they want to tolerate lower real rates and hence expected Repo 6.0%-6.25%
3) curve overpriced
(/n)

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

What is there to ‘work’ on it

It should be simple price linked formula.

[Indian Tech & Infra @IndianTechGuide]

🚨 “We are working to ensure E85 fuel is priced significantly lower than petrol,” says Minister Hardeep Singh Puri.

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

This is concerning

If you do not know the problem
You will never know the solution

[Vijaita Singh @vijaita]

Excl: Ground reality vs official records: Census fieldwork is throwing up data that differ from govt records on open defecation free villages, use of cow dung cakes/kerosene/crop residue for cooking in urban areas despite LPG connection, no electricity. Enumerators asked to revisit and review the “data discrepancies”.I ✍️

https://t.co/1LaYwpiiED

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@jaganmsna Of course they can do that

But when I recommended that the govt should have done that to hedge its sovereign gold bond,

Someone told me you must be naive and new to Indian markets 😁

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

I would say even if the RBI indeed sold some gold holdings to manage or balance its foreign exchange reserves it should be fine

They have the Gold to be used at some stage. They can always buy it back

These things shouldn’t be taboo

[ReserveBankOfIndia @RBI]

स्वर्ण धारिता संबंधी स्पष्टीकरण
Clarification on gold holdings
https://t.co/JrCUhWWEHo

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@Puyangan5 @athreya49 @indiaemerges As someone told me recently

We need to get back into thinking about zones

The earlier SEZ became a real estate land bank play

Eco zone policy should be about ecosystem of rules of all factor markets which apply in that zone

China managed that and so have many others

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@athreya49 @Puyangan5 @indiaemerges Posting my ‘China+1 needs China’ thread

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Has to be done…
1) the ‘China+1’ is mostly Chinese firms diversifying away to other locations for various reasons (economic & geopolitical)…
2) entering global supply chain not possible w/o these firms
3) Chinese businessman know how to build&operate at global scale ..

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@athreya49 @Puyangan5 @indiaemerges Good post , great charts

China +1 = Vietnam

Chinese capital
Chinese tech
Chinese engineers / workers
Chinese rules
And
Chinese ethnicity, food

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@LloydMathias @Nomura @SonalVarma10 @bsindia @mygovindia Very encouraging:

But the Chinese ecosystem is required to gain from China +1..
They understand mfg at scale;
Vietnam has gained from Chinese businesses setting up in Vietnam ..

will they do so in India ? Will they be allowed?

See tweet link and chart

https://t.co/ML7I2T2MHi

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@aRishisays @jturek18 @DavidBeckworth Brilliant Rishi 🤣👏

[Rishi Mishra @aRishisays]

@jturek18 @DavidBeckworth This is academic mark-to-market!

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

It is not even a metaphor anymore

[Piyush Rai @PiyushRaiUP65]

In UP's Mahoba, DSP Ravikant Gaud could be seen driving a bullock cart in a bid to encourage farmers to cut down on petrol and diesel and engage more sustainable and eco-friendly means in farming.

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@subhomoyb @karanbhasin95 https://t.co/Ew2QgvLufY

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@monikahalan @SEBI_updates @ananthng This is where policy makers and govt missed out on balancing the flows-

1) SEBI should have insisted on 75% / higher free float on PSUs and other pvt firms
2) Govt should have aggressively stepped up disinvestment
3) Mutual Fund overseas limit should have been increased

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@kaul_vivek https://t.co/8y6oeoYwVJ

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Edition 17: May 2026
India Investing: From 'TINA' to 'ANTI'

India needs its relative and absolute growth/ROE premium over EMs to command higher valuations.

High valuations, no AI, taxes, INR policy - became a great exit opportunity for foreign investors

https://t.co/dY6CW358mJ

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Edition 17: May 2026
India Investing: From 'TINA' to 'ANTI'

India needs its relative and absolute growth/ROE premium over EMs to command higher valuations.

High valuations, no AI, taxes, INR policy - became a great exit opportunity for foreign investors

https://t.co/dY6CW358mJ

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Global India Insights

A Journey to understand what drives global institutional investors and their implications and impact on India investing

Subscribe on LinkedIn https://t.co/z5Rqf2y4w4

Follow this thread for links to the editions to the newsletter

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Edition 16: April 2026
Is India 'Fragile' Again

I looked at what led to India being 'Fragile 5' in 2013.
Given the recent comment on India being 'Fragile 2'!

I note that INR was already 'fragile' with our inability to attract and retain foreign flows

https://t.co/ISdU0dQG0T

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

This is why you need coalition governments in this country.

data shows coalition govts perform better,

And one reason for that;😉
Every party has its 10 cronies,
In a coalition of 20 parties (with a say) you get 200 cronies benefitting from govt largesse

Santulan Rehta Hein

[Vinay Aravind @vinayaravind]

Just read this story. The rigging is so brazen to favour Adani. This is just the teeny tiny sliver of the tip of the iceberg. The whole economy of the country now runs on patronage to the cronies. Even lower level cronies like Vedanta are getting shafted in the process.

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@chiragbarjatya Will do it only if it becomes politically vulnerable (like the comment below during demo).. otherwise he has never allowed himself to be associated with a negative outcome (even during delta wave)

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

Was this the last time he appeared visibly vulnerable and willing to submit to scrutiny for a decision?

Given that political outcomes and narratives of most decisions have been favourable, hasn’t needed to appear and say things like this

[Arvind Chari @arrychary]

@pujamehra @tca_tca Macro economists and policy wonks will remain disappointed... the only macro indicator the Modi govt worries about is inflation and fiscal deficit; rest they seem completely focussed on micro economics&vote winnability... hope the slump will drive policy reforms over project mgmt