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Fun guy. L/S HF. Trying to connect the dots. DMs open. Mostly a Reply-guy.

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@rabois @John_Hempton Empirically measured how?

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@MadThunderdome Price determines narrative

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@NegativeGW Bahamas to avoid regulation while grift ongoing, but there’s extradition so presumably he should’ve fled before. Anyways, we may never know the inner workings of these “geniuses”. They went to MIT you know! They were ugly therefore HAD to be smart, of course.

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@KvetchNRelease @TheBenSchmark Interesting, a bit smaller than I usually look at, but good to watch. Thanks

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@NegativeGW 100%, I just can't figure out why he didn't run then? Like that's just the last piece that I don't have a clean answer for. He is obviously not dumb, he knew this was happening (and therefore when the game was "over" before others). Why not flee vs risking life in jail?

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@NegativeGW I mean, yes, there’s definitely holes to my underlying view of what happened—no doubt about that. I think peddling guaranteed returns *could’ve* been egregiously arrogant marketing, and you could argue they don’t deserve benefit of the doubt and I would say, you know, fair enoug

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@jsy959 @BucknSF @loganbartlett Correspondent banking system is slow *by design*. Speed results in higher probability of fraud/loose KYC & AML, usually. Agree that this is the “best” use case of crypto (AFAIK), but even this isn’t your classic growth-boi’s 10x better product given use case. Inertia is tough.

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@DeepSailCapital Adyen

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@MadThunderdome @ShortSightedCap @S_curvecap At a certain point the lower the stock goes... the more bullish it is because p(Schulman axe) increases

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@MadThunderdome @ShortSightedCap @S_curvecap Outside of mkt re-rating, what do you think Schulman & co need to do get it back to 25x?

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@ShortSightedCap @MadThunderdome @S_curvecap I've noticed the product improvements in Venmo, for sure. Way less laggy, better UI, less focus on pushing crypto, etc. What are you seeing on Core Button that's better? Gabs was basically suggesting this Core Button revamp is a lot longer process than Venmo improvements.

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@MadThunderdome @ShortSightedCap @S_curvecap Tim @ CS said it best: the multiple going from 15x -> 18x or -> 12x depends on *how* NTM EPS is delivered. Do we get it via NII (that will go away if rates are going down in CY24) or can Core Button keep in-line w/eComm (or lose slight share)? Former gets 12-15x, later 15-18x imo

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@ShortSightedCap @S_curvecap I would PYPL used to be HF long maybe 2-3 months ago, but at this point I can’t find any HF who isn’t short (or claims to be; see: stock)

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@Frazier_Cap @Yg35835 @KvetchNRelease Make FIS FIS again

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@rationalwalk I currently believe this is the most likely scenario, but there remains one plot hole/logical inconsistency I can’t shake—why didn’t he (or the whole crew) flee the country once the jig is up? 3AC, Do Kwon, etc. all fled and I believe he/crew were demonstrably smarter.

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@RagingVentures How good a job has it done?

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@modestproposal1 So if you’re a SMB usually you just use default provided in whatever checkout aggregator you’re using, don’t even think Apple Pay has an easy self-serve option.

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@modestproposal1 Apple Pay isn’t a default across the SMB checkout aggregators: Shopify, Woo, BIGC, etc. This is in part because some of these players fear being pushed out by Apple, but also just because Apple themselves don’t push it that much/as much as they could. It’s tiny incr. for AAPL.

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@FundamentEdge @MadThunderdome @quakerheel @taobanker Since time needed to determine ability to deliver alpha is lesser at pod than directional HF/LO, you can start with the conventionally defined “lower”-tier starting role of sellside vs IB (to be clear I don’t agree that sellside is necessarily <<< vs IB)

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@FundamentEdge @MadThunderdome @quakerheel @taobanker How did you view potential sellside hires when you were in your pod PM seat? My understanding is pods have actually had great success hiring particular sellside analysts vs banking relative to the Tiger funds because they already have coverage + closer to “getting” stocks vs IB.