Winging It

Vibes

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

@ChrisCamillo Understood, congratulations. Had a different interpretation based on your Iced Coffee Hour interviews. Seemed like it was mainly built with LEAPS, with additional exposure on weakness.

Coming from perspective of someone who heavily bought into your thesis. Thanks for the insight

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

Could not have been more wrong.

This post marked when I capitulated sitting on the sidelines; was exhausted of seeing growth stocks I had screened aggressively make 3x - 5x moves despite stretched valuations. Weeks like this make you reflect. A lot to learn.

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but there will be no “valuation reset”. Throw your traditional finance rules out the window. This is a geopolitical war, fueled by the full force of an administration and without any brakes. Up and up we go.

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

We live in a world where $ACMR dips 5% the same day $CXMT jumps 466%.

Absolutely fascinating. Power names ($HPS.A, $PWR, $MYRG) get nonsensically correlated with AI semis, but then in the same breath, names like ACMR and CXMT diverge when they ARE correlated. Madness.

[Jay Yoon @jaysyoon]

Over the past couple days, I have heard from two separate sources that $PESI now intends to expand its grouting capacity from 1m gallons to 10m gallons annually. This is up from the already massive expansion to 7.2m gallons cited in my report. This expansion to 10m gallons is at the request of the DOE who asked the company to expand to at least 9m gallons annually. Based on this, it appears the upside case in my report may be too conservative.

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

35% concentrated. $PESI

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

I’m 20% concentrated in $PESI purely based on Jay’s coverage these past few weeks. Last time I’ve been this bullish was on US transformers / grid transmission buildout. Great work. Will owe you a king’s feast very soon.

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

I’m 20% concentrated in $PESI purely based on Jay’s coverage these past few weeks. Last time I’ve been this bullish was on US transformers / grid transmission buildout. Great work. Will owe you a king’s feast very soon.

[Jay Yoon @jaysyoon]

1. I have just released a bullish report on Perma-Fix Environmental Services. Based on 1) a massive inflection in financial performance that is set to begin over the coming months, and 2) a recent large undisclosed contract win that the market is completely unaware of, I believe $PESI shares might be the most asymmetric investment that I have ever come across.

My fair value estimate for PESI shares is $62.10 to $111.31, representing 333% to 676% upside from the current share price of $14.34. The full contents of my report can be read here: https://t.co/wrnv7PhG12

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

I’ve honestly found “loop engineering” to be online buzzwords until GPT 5.6 Sol. The execution power and context window has been a game changer. Got more done in this last week than I have in past two months.

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

A theme very increasingly clear to me is to be long AI complexity. I’m thinking of each data center as a factory. As compute constrains and AI integration accelerates, you need more out of each factory. Pretty simple.

$CAMT $ACMR $ADEA $VICR

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

@pmarca Incredibly naive framing. Only true if DCs consume underutilized existing infra. Generally that’s not what’s happening with BTM generation / islanding / non-standard grid equipment which all require incremental infra burden

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

@SJCapitalInvest This prob will do fine but if the bar is AMPX/IBKX asymmetry, why not find a cleaner expression? A lot more embedded risk here than it seems. There’s grid-level nuance you’re underwriting too: compute value differs nodally/geographically significantly

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

@SJCapitalInvest Should’ve been a bit clearer. They do have some pricing power on installed capacity. My concern is the stock is being underwritten on future growth, and if upstream tightens, replacement cost of that growth rises fast. Can compress the multiple on what you’re really buying today

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

@GaryMarcus The letter requests loan guarantees for industrial domestic manufacturers across the AI supply chain, not for OpenAI. And for which I struggle to see why that would be bad? They’re not asking for data centers or compute to be backstopped

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

I’ll take the opposite side. It’s going to be increasingly harder to accumulate wealth. Imagine a ladder: if you get knocked down some steps, your chances of coming back up are a lot lower now

Capital preservation is the name of the game now. Be smart.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

Men ages 18 to 25 should NOT be “financially comfy.” They should not “play it safe” or “index and chill.” They should go way off the reservation, buy garbage stocks, read 10-Ks until 3 AM, lose money, and get humbled by Mr. Market.

The best deep value investors I know all went through that brutal apprenticeship. Some blew up their first portfolio in cigar butts, some spent months stalking micro-caps no one’s heard of, some lived on ramen while refreshing OTC filings, some dumpster-dived for net-nets in post-industrial towns. Others took Greyhounds to shareholder meetings in hotel basements or spent entire summers cold-calling IR departments for annual reports that never came.

If a young investor doesn’t go through that “hard years” phase where he’s uncomfortable, confused, and convinced he’s the next Buffett until reality crushes him, he’s ruined. He becomes “soft,” dependent on screens and narratives, allergic to pain. And that softness calcifies into a lifetime of mediocrity: passive, overdiversified, and spiritually indexed.

Anyone mentoring a young investor MUST push him toward his “Benjamin Graham moment.” It doesn’t matter how he does it. Maybe he buys a 0.3× book value steel mill, maybe he gets rugged in a liquidation, maybe he finds religion in the footnotes, but he needs that year or two of being definitively uncomfortable. Only then does he earn the right to call himself a value investor.

[Winging It @as00Mnothing]

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but there will be no “valuation reset”. Throw your traditional finance rules out the window. This is a geopolitical war, fueled by the full force of an administration and without any brakes. Up and up we go.