Anthony Scheff

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@imthatgalag @jaketapper I mean the polls were off by more than they were off in 2016. It’s just both 2016 and 2026 fell within standard polling error brackets and went in opposite directions. 2016 slightly underestimated Rs, 2026 slightly underestimated Ds.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@maoisthnvx_25 No serious political candidate wants to closely identify with the DSA after they tried to blackmail Nithya Raman right before the election. The progressive faction that actually wants to get shit done (AOC, Zohran, etc) are too smart to tie their futures to the org.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@TomEDewey1948 @Adam171020 I’m no fan of Collins, but if the current president were Kamala Harris, she would have skated to reelection by 4-5 points. The biggest problem for her and every other R candidate this cycle is the millstone in the White House pulling their party down.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@AaronBlake @jaketapper Christopher Bouzy in 2024 predicted Harris to get 349 electoral votes, Dems to win 50 senate seats and the house. This year he predicted dems to win “49 or 50” senate seats and 220 house seats. Honestly impressive to ignore polls and be that off in two separate directions.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@TVietor08 @AbdulElSayed @HaleyforMI Haley Stevens is making the same stupid mistake the DSA did with Nithya Ramen. They both tried a last minute power play hoping to look like an important voice with influence, but both just came out looking dumb. It will backfire in both their faces.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@AaronAjlen @ClareMalone As someone who wants to see a Dem in office, I hope Vance is the nominee, but I doubt he will be. Trump-y style candidates without Trump’s charisma have flamed out epically for almost a decade now. He is sundowning hard now, but 2016 Trump actually was charismatic on the stump.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@TradeUnionJake The message they’re sending is that they can’t read the room. This was a massive overreach - either Nithya wins despite this move, undermining the DSA’s influence, or she loses to Karen Bass, dramatically undermining the DSA’s influence. Either way AOC will distance herself.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@americansnarker @NateSilver538 This six sample size run of random dice rolls simulated by Excel doesn't have a single 3 or 4. Clearly there is an established trend that the middle is underrepresented, and all future guesses of die roll results should be 1, 2, 5, or 6. That will prove you right more than wrong.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@FiPhysician @NateSilver538 Nate Silver’s friends and acquaintances are not even close to representative of the wider public.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@nytimes @TheAthletic That’s pretty ironic coming from the publication that has given Kyrie Irving image rehabilitating puff pieces like this: https://t.co/gyhhH5FL4M

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@brodgers01 @NateSilver538 Weather forecasters are pretty accurate. There is a clear bias in low numbers where they report 20% chance of rain even if they think it’s more like 5%, but on the whole, the major weather forecasting services are quite accurate.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@LindaBr23874831 @MarkMaxwellTV You're right, today is the deadline, which is why Hoskins has to abide by the United States Supreme Court decision and use the old map.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@NateSilver538 In creative writing, the possibilities are so endless that blank page paralysis is real. It is helpful to have something to use as a comparison so when you have a new idea, you are comparing the new idea against something real instead of dozens of other partial idea fragments.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@NateSilver538 This can also vary based on the type of writing. As someone who does specific, professional writing at work and creative, open-ended writing as a hobby, the "just get something down" technique is helpful for me for the latter but not the former.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@1dad2lads @NateSilver538 It's not life or death, and no one is going to end up in jail over it, but it is reasonable for sports fans to care about the rules of those sports being flaunted.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@justawonk @NateSilver538 The problem is none of Trump’s scandals resonate with the key swing state voters. Low engagement, low information voters care about things that impact their daily life. Democratic messaging needs to prioritize how they’re helping people with cost of living, not Trump scandals.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@frogblasted @NateSilver538 The reflecting pool does not strike a cord with voters. It strikes a cord with terminally online politics Twitter/Bluesky people, who have no idea what actual voters care about.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@Sultanknish @yashar Eh, SC isn't exactly Newsom territory, but it's about the worst possible place for Buttigieg and AOC, which is a net positive for Newsom. It was never going to be California, so SC was probably the best realistic option for Newsom.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@PeteButtigieg It's crazy that people who will be 18 and 19 in 2028 were 2 and 3 in 2012. There will be voters who do not remember a single thing from the last time there was an election cycle that wasn't a referendum on Donald Trump.

[Anthony Scheff @ascheff]

@KidFromRaleigh @CarliLloyd I mean Rodri was the best player for Spain, but Yamal is still one of the best players in the world.