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$ETHFI — broke today's range, now at yesterday's floor
Price bounced sharply from ~0.678 to 0.7146. Broke above VAH 09/23 (~0.7115) — today's value exceeded. Now stalling right under VAL 09/22 (~0.7185), the bottom of yesterday's range, now resistance.
Structure: higher lows from 0.678, and the latest push is steep — short-term momentum is up. But zoomed out, price fell from 0.72 to 0.678 over two days before this bounce, so this could just be a relief bounce in a downtrend, not a reversal yet.
🟢 Reclaim + hold 0.706 (VAH 09/23, now support), M5 confirmation
Entry: 0.707
SL: below 0.7060
TP: 0.7363 (POC 09/22)
Risk: 1–3% max
❌ Close below 0.7060 = failed breakout, stand aside.
Mid-move right now. Not chasing.
#NASDAQ $NQ — TP1 HIT (+2.0R)
Entry: 30,892.75
SL: 30,840.00 (original)
TP1: 31,000 — hit ✅
TP2: 31,210 (6R from entry)
Now: 31,021.50 (2.44R)
The retest of VWAP + VAH 09/21 held exactly as planned, and price took out the morning high.
Trailing the stop under the higher lows on the remainder, per the plan. Not calling a top — letting the trend decide the exit.
#NASDAQ $NQ — long filled on the retest, running ~1R
Entry: 30,892.75
Risk: 1–3% max
Now: 30,936.25
Why: the open-drive breakout held. The pullback into the VWAP + VAH 09/21 zone (30,870–30,905) got bought, and VWAP (~30,878) is still sloping up.
Close back below 30,862 with VWAP lost = second failed breakout. Exit early.
$TIA/USDT — SETUP CANCELLED (no entry, not a loss)
Entry 0.4397 never filled. Price didn't come back to retest VAH 09/22 — it ran straight up to ~0.4818 and is now 0.4764.
Order cancelled. No position, no result to report.
This is the trade-off of waiting for your level: you skip the bad fills, and sometimes you skip a good move too. We take that deal every time.
Not chasing it up here. Next setup.
$TIA/USDT — LONG LIMIT
Entry: 0.4397
SL: 0.4341 (-1.27%)
TP: 0.4730 (+7.57%)
Risk: 1–3% max
Why: BOS + MSS confirmed the upside structure, and price is accepting above VAH 09/22 (~0.439). Entry is the retest of VAH as support, just under VWAP (~0.4419).
Below 0.4341 = invalid.
#NASDAQ $NQ — long filled on the retest, running ~1R
Entry: 30,892.75
Risk: 1–3% max
Now: 30,936.25
Why: the open-drive breakout held. The pullback into the VWAP + VAH 09/21 zone (30,870–30,905) got bought, and VWAP (~30,878) is still sloping up.
Close back below 30,862 with VWAP lost = second failed breakout. Exit early.
#NASDAQ $NQ — open drive through VAH. Long the retest.
At the 6:30am RTH open, one long candle drove straight through VAH 09/21 (~30,862) and the old range high (~30,905) to ~31,000. Now 30,938. VWAP (~30,869) below price and sloping up.
Why this is different from last night: last night's VAH break came in thin overnight volume and failed. This morning is an open drive — break at RTH open on the day's highest volume, no building value below.
🟢 30,860–30,905 (VWAP + VAH 09/21 + old range high — now support)
Entry: M5 confirmation of the hold
SL: below ~30,840
TP1: ~31,000 (morning high / +2σ), then trail under higher lows
Risk: 1–3% max
R:R ≈ 1 : 2.4 from mid-zone
❌ Invalidation: close back below 30,862 and lose VWAP → second failed breakout, stand aside.
No shorts. Price at +1σ, mid-move — nothing to do yet. Wait for the pullback.
#NASDAQ $NQ — open drive through VAH. Long the retest.
At the 6:30am RTH open, one long candle drove straight through VAH 09/21 (~30,862) and the old range high (~30,905) to ~31,000. Now 30,938. VWAP (~30,869) below price and sloping up.
Why this is different from last night: last night's VAH break came in thin overnight volume and failed. This morning is an open drive — break at RTH open on the day's highest volume, no building value below.
🟢 30,860–30,905 (VWAP + VAH 09/21 + old range high — now support)
Entry: M5 confirmation of the hold
SL: below ~30,840
TP1: ~31,000 (morning high / +2σ), then trail under higher lows
Risk: 1–3% max
R:R ≈ 1 : 2.4 from mid-zone
❌ Invalidation: close back below 30,862 and lose VWAP → second failed breakout, stand aside.
No shorts. Price at +1σ, mid-move — nothing to do yet. Wait for the pullback.
$TIA/USDT — LONG LIMIT
Entry: 0.4397
SL: 0.4341 (-1.27%)
TP: 0.4730 (+7.57%)
Risk: 1–3% max
Why: BOS + MSS confirmed the upside structure, and price is accepting above VAH 09/22 (~0.439). Entry is the retest of VAH as support, just under VWAP (~0.4419).
Below 0.4341 = invalid.
$BTC — Scenario A played out. Long the VWAP/POC retest.
Price broke out of 85,250–85,650 and reclaimed VWAP and POC 09/22. Since then it's ranged 85,800–86,400; latest candle poked +2σ (~86,400) and got pushed back to 85,990. VWAP (~85,800) now below price — buyers have intraday control. The 87,380 correction likely bottomed at ~85,250.
🟢 85,800–85,850 (VWAP + POC confluence)
Entry: long on pullback, M5 confirmation
SL: below 85,500 (−1σ)
TP: 86,350 (BOS / +2σ), then VAH 86,930
Risk: 1–3% max
R:R ≈ 1 : 1.6 (T1) / 1 : 3.4 (T2)
⚪️ 85,900–86,300: do nothing.
🔴 Close below 85,500 → VWAP lost again, back to the correction scenario. Re-check 84,400–84,700.
No shorts — price above VWAP, HTF trend up.
$BTC — HTF bullish, short-term correction. Waiting at range middle.
Price has compressed in 85,250–85,650 for 5–6 hours, small candles, hugging −1σ. Compression breaks one way. No trades inside the range.
🟢 A — Correction over, trend resumes
Trigger: close above VWAP 85,680, reclaim POC 85,840
Entry: retest 85,680–85,840 from above, M5 confirmation
SL: below 85,450
TP: 85,990 / 86,350 / 86,930
Risk: 1–3% max
🟡 B — Deeper correction (higher probability, 30m structure still down)
Trigger: break below 85,250 → usually moves fast to 84,400–84,700
Entry: long 84,400–84,700 on sweep/reclaim or long lower wick
SL: below 84,150 (under the higher low)
TP: VWAP, then POC 85,840
Risk: 1–3% max
🔴 C — Trend broken
Acceptance below 84,200 → lower low on H1, bullish structure broken. All long ideas off.
Next: VAL 83,700, then BOS ~82,000.
Why: HTF trend is up, short-term correcting. Best setup is B at 84,400–84,700, or A if price reclaims VWAP/POC first.
Right now: mid-range → wait.
$ONDO — short update, +1.5R
Entry: 0.4410
SL: 0.4532 → move to 0.4410 (entry)
Risk: 1–3% max
Now: 0.4229 (+4.10%)
Recommend moving your stop to entry now. Trade is risk-free from here.
Why: stayed below POC 09/20 (~0.4364) through the consolidation, now breaking the range lows (~0.4285). VAL 09/20 (~0.4080) is the next level below.
$CAKE/USDT — Trade Closed ❌
Entry: 2.520
SL hit: 2.539 (-0.75%)
Result: -1R
The retest of VAL 09/22 didn't hold as resistance — price reclaimed it and ran the stop.
Planned loss, sized to plan. Next setup.
#GOLD $GOLD — short running, +1.45R
Entry: 4,377.9 (retest of VAL 09/21 + OB from below)
Now: 4,357.6
Why: 09/21 balance broke down with acceptance below VAL. The bounce into the broken zone got rejected, same as the plan. Lower highs from 4,440 still intact.
Reclaim and hold above 4,392 = idea off.
#GOLD $XAUUSD — the range broke down. I want to sell a bounce, not the low.
My long at the bottom of the range never triggered. Price broke straight through instead. No entry, no loss. It's now about 60 points lower.
Entry: 4,376–4,385, after a 5-min rejection
Stop: 4,392
Target: 4,324
No shorting down here at the low.
If price gets back above 4,385 and holds, I drop the idea.