BlackSoybeanNo3

[区块链行情研究 @qkl2058]

一位斯坦福毕业生刚发了一个马尔可夫链的讲座视频，50分钟，专门讲给做量化交易的人听，讲得特别简洁。

Jane Street 的量化分析师年薪能到 120 万美元，说到底就是要搞懂这套数学。

现在这个讲座把同样的框架给你讲透了，完全免费。

收藏起来，周末抽时间看看。

[GOLD @Honcia13]

华尔街直接被惊到了！
有人把顶级投行多Agent量化交易系统，完整做成了中国版！

TradingAgents-CN —— 基于LangGraph的多AI Agent炒股框架
模拟完整投行研究团队：
基本面分析师 + 技术面分析师 + 新闻舆情分析师 + 风控经理 + 交易员
五位AI专家实时协作决策！

已适配A股、港股、美股，三层缓存+Docker部署，Streamlit界面丝滑
1195次commit，认真维护近一年！ 量化&Agent玩家狂喜！

但请理性：仅供研究学习，勿直接实盘！
https://t.co/1EKNWyJ637

[李傻根 MORE MONEY @v3wanu]

黄仁勋昨天在卡内基梅隆毕业典礼的演讲完整版（中文字幕），要点我给你速通一下

1. 老婆是学姐，实验室搭档
2. 我经历了每一个计算平台变革：大型机、个人电脑、互联网、移动设备和云，但AI比他们都更大
3. 我们不能恐惧AI，要拥抱它
4. AI让每个人都是程序员
5. AI基建是人类历史上规模最大的基建
6. 电工、水管工、钢铁工人、技术员、建筑工人，这是属于你们的时代
7. AI要实现电网现代化、扩大发电能力、加速可持续
8. AI不会取代你，但比你更擅长使用AI的人可能会
9. 没有哪一代人像你们一样，携带着强大工具踏入世界，我们都站在同一起跑线上了

[Sea @Sea_Bitcoin]

这个美股编年史网站，昨天睡前看了半天，把标普 500 和纳指 100 的历史数据，梳理得很好，长期持有者推荐一看

刚刷新一看，还增加了半导体、信息科技、金融、美股七姐妹这几个模块，网址: https://t.co/396N7CdSzx

这样的 vibe coding 有价值的，不像那些自我感动型的项目，一周后自己都不想打开了

[KK.aWSB @KKaWSB]

https://t.co/psKrp0XUpx

[太阳闯关记 @dachaoren]

claude code教程，讲的非常仔细，新手完全能听懂并且落地，这教程在国内不得收费398，598元？估计还一大堆人抢着买。

静下心看完这一套完整教程，你就能真正用 AI 搭建工作流、实现自动化、处理复杂任务。

[Tomas @TomasOnMarkets]

3⃣ How I use "the big three" to determine major market trends

The "big three" - dollar, yields and oil - are very important.

All three are major drivers of whether general global market conditions are "risk-off" or "risk-on".

Here's what I'm thinking about currently...

This week we saw a hotter than expected CPI and a hotter than expected PPI.

US 10-year Treasury yields initially shot up following the hot CPI print yesterday.

This is a bit of a worry, if it's the start of a new up leg for yields.

But I don't think it is the start of a new up leg.

3⃣ The "big three"

The US dollar (DXY), yields (US10Y) and oil (USOIL) generally follow each other up and down on medium-term timeframes.

This can generally be viewed simplistically as down = risk-on, and up = risk-off, but it's not perfect and can be delayed.

The big question is always: which ones are leading and which ones are lagging.

The answer to this question can change over time.

On short-term timeframes, you tend to find that if one of the three gets "out of line", the other two generally drag it back into correlation.

We saw this in December, when oil got "out of line", and in early February, when DXY got "out of line".

This appears to be happening again with US10Y "out of line".

Since mid-January, I've been saying I think DXY has probably topped.

This is still my base case - and this is really the foundation for pretty much every other market.

From my point of view, US10Y freaked out a little bit too much after the hot CPI on Wednesday.

DXY and oil are generally still trending down, which should help to drag US10Y back down, all else being equal.

My overall stance is that we are in the early stages of a medium-term downtrend for the "big three" that started in mid-January.

Laggards among the "big three" are now being dragged down, instead of being dragged up.

Positioning in the dollar is still at historically extreme levels.

I think this is mostly due to tariff fears, but also due to global rate differentials.

Yesterday's CPI print pushed market pricing of Fed rate cuts in 2025 to just one.

I still think tariff fears are overblown, and I think it is also very possible the Fed will cut more than the market expects in 2025.

There is still no real sign of dollar long positions being unwound yet.

When (if) DXY breaks past its prior low, forming a new "lower low", this could lead to a cascade of dollar long positions being unwound.

When (if) this cascade occurs, I do not want to be under-allocated to risk assets.

We are likely to see a rapid injection of hundreds of billions in dollar liquidity entering markets between mid/late February and early April.

This is due to the dynamics around the debt ceiling and the Treasury General Account (TGA).

This is a headwind for DXY.

You can see this general loose correlation in the following chart - showing Net Federal Reserve Liquidity and DXY (inverted).

Due to the upcoming TGA dynamics, we are likely to see Net Federal Reserve Liquidity rise quite a bit, which, if the loose correlation holds, should see DXY falling.

[BlackSoybeanNo3 @astphyastphy]

@BTCBruce1 @realDonaldTrump @JDVance NB!

[硅谷王川 Chuan @Svwang1]

2023年美国金融市场发生的几个意想不到的事件:

1. 硅谷银行一度濒临破产，颇具讽刺意义的是，因为此事 usdc 价格一度跌破 0.9 usdt (后者一般被认为缺乏严格审计，账本不透明，风险比前者要大)。比特币先跌到两万美元，美国财政部决定救助接管硅谷银行之后，一个月内又涨回到三万美元。

2. 九月份美联储暗示大家要接受长时间的高利息状态，三十年国债利息一度达到 5.1%，为十六年来最高。媒体充斥各种唱高利率，梦回七十年代高通胀的叙事，JPMorgan CEO更是表示预计国债利率要达到 7%。两个多月后美联储又预计 2024年可能要降息，三十年国债利率又跌回 4.0%，和去年年底水平差不多。

3. 灰度对于美国证监会的诉讼八月底被三名法官一致判决胜诉，十月十三号 SEC 放弃对法院判决上诉，从此开启了整个加密市场的狂欢。

4. nvidia 五月24日财报中，预计二季度收入要比一季度增长 50%以上，次日股价大涨，目前股价是年初的 3.4 倍。

世界常会发生事前无法预测的非线性突变，需要准备足够多的弹药，坦然面对和接受不确定性，迎接和拥抱不确定性。

凡是加杠杆不给自己留余地的人，本质都是主观要和这种不确定性做对，迟早会摔得粉身碎骨。

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

Here are updated probability that #ChatGPT has for #corn yields after today’s crop conditions with latest weather models inputted. Last week it had 170-175 at less then 5%

Subscribe to https://t.co/woCRoIdd7z to get more #corn predictions updates from AI

[BlackSoybeanNo3 @astphyastphy]

@BillAckman @Ukraine Short NASDAQ?

[BlackSoybeanNo3 @astphyastphy]

@laomanpindao 主要任务是推销美债吧

[NOAA Climate.gov @NOAAClimate]

Looking for climate data? This tool generates bar graphs showing the monthly extent of sea ice or snow cover. https://t.co/xXPyy7NIAC

[BlackSoybeanNo3 @astphyastphy]

@kannbwx 1st pic is wrong, maybe u did not update it

[BlackSoybeanNo3 @astphyastphy]

BlackSoybean

[Zach Zambreski @Zambreski]

Spatial overview of the major United States agricultural belts [#corn, soybean, cotton, spring and winter wheat]. #AgTwitter #ag

[BlackSoybeanNo3 @astphyastphy]

Hello world