Jeremey Frost

Tweets are personal opinion and should not be construed as investment advice or trade solicitation. Trading futures is risky and not suitable for everyone.

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. No statements made should be considered a recommendation

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Corn vs Crude 🌽 🛢️

The two had been tracking very closely over the course of the last month

However the last few days have seen a rather large divergence

Crude has put together a nice rally

While corn and the rest of grain markets continue to sell off

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Corn broke some major support 🌽

But are we almost due for a bounce?

July corn broke below the 61.8% retracement from the highs down to contract lows.

That same $4.50 level was massive prior support.

We’re now approaching the last line of defense before contract lows. The trendline support that’s marked the last two lows.

The front month chart broke the uptrend we had respected since those harvest lows.

Now sitting at those lows from April and some possible support.

It is not a good sign that we broke key support.

As it suggests the overall trend has very possibly shifted lower as we head into harvest.

However, that doesn’t mean we can’t see a relief bounce here soon first.

With both charts essentially nearing some of their last areas of support.

***
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[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Where do soybean bulls need to hold? 🌱

That $11.40 range is viewed as a huge level.

It was the lows from 2024.

It was the highs from last November.

It was right where this market bottomed in April.

Below that level there is some massive air beneath us and room for downside risk.

Each time we’ve traded between $10.80 and $11.40 we’ve either rallied right through or fell right through. Leaving a pocket of air.

***
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[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Bulls need corn to bounce here 🌽

Front month corn has been in an upward channel since those harvest lows back in August

Currently sitting right at the bottom of the channel we’ve respected for months

If we’re going to bounce.. this would be where we’d want us to do so

As if we fail to hold $4.50 and the uptrend it could definitely open up further downside

The $4.50 level lines up with the key support on the July contract as well (post below)

***
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[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Make or break level for corn 🌽

If we’re going to bounce.. bulls want it be here

$4.50 gives back 61.8% of the highs all the way down to contract lows

Not only that, this level has been major support countless times

We found life here last fall and it’s exactly where this market bottomed back in April

Failure to hold this level could open the door lower

***
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[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

RT @MarketMinuteLLC: July Corn 🌽 🔨

Inverted hammer right at trendline support

Important spot for bulls

Closing well off the highs after…

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Best day for corn in 3 years 🌽

First time front month corn has closed up over 20 cents in a day since July 2023

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

China’s $17B Ag Promise: Is Corn the Sleeper?

Everyone hears “China” and thinks soybeans.

But the White House says the new $17B/year ag commitment is in addition to the October soybean commitments.

So where does the extra $17B go?

My guess:

Corn/feed grains
Sorghum
DDGs/ethanol
Beef/poultry/pork
Cotton
Wheat
Specialty ag products

If soybeans are already spoken for, corn may be the sleeper market nobody is talking about enough.

What do you think China actually buys?

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

China has agreed to buy at least $17 billlion of US ag products annually through 2028.

This does not include the 25 MMT of soybeans they agreed to buy.

Which would add another $10-11 billion. For a total of $27-28 billion.

Past US Ag Exports to China:

2025: $8.3 billion
2024: $27 billion
2023: $34 billion
2022: $41 billion
2021: $39 billion

No specific products were mentioned.

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

2012 repeat. About time

[Chris Robinson @cer_hedge]

This is something to watch..just potential risk. Back in 2012- the "drought year" we slid lower over a buck-- into June 30-- then we exploded... food for thought...

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

Does that mean the market will get excited when they start buying??

[GrainStats 🌾 @GrainStats]

🇨🇳China will purchase at least 25 million metric tonnes of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028 🌱

Source: White House (2025-11-01)

Reality?

ZERO confirmed tonnes of Soybeans have been sold to China for the 2026/2027 Marketing Year🤷‍♂️

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Some possible hidden bullish divergence in Dec corn on the RSI

The RSI made new lows. Prices did not

The highs back in March were marked with bearish divergence

Where prices were pushing higher yet the RSI was not

Currently sitting at those March highs trying to flip it into support

***
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[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Tuesday we alerted a sell signal and hedge alert for soybeans 🌱

Why?

Here is a link to it: https://t.co/cxJcSuVniy

The China meeting and potential of a sell the news event was of course a large factor

However the charts were also showing some possible warning signs

For starters we tagged the golden fib

Which was 161.8% of the March lows up to the March highs

We were then showing some possible bearish divergence on the RSI

Prices were pushing higher. The RSI was not

That didn’t mean we had to stop there. It can just often be a sign upside momentum could be getting weaker

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*There is risk of loss trading futures and options. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future returns. This is our opinion on the market and should be treated as such.

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Brutal day for soybeans 🌱

Now approaching some important levels on the charts

July beans have given back 61.8% of the April lows

We’re sitting right at that prior resistance from the brutal range. Trying to turn it into support for the second time now

This level often tells us whether the market is starting to roll over or not. If we’re going to bounce.. bulls want it to be here

Failure to hold could bring us towards the red box. Gives back 50-61.8% of the March highs down to the Jan lows

Nov beans are still in a clear uptrend, currently trying to turn those March highs into our new floor

***
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[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

KC wheat is 45 cents off the recent highs from just a day ago following the limit up move from the USDA

Now trying to turn that old $7.00 resistance into our new floor

That same level gives back 61.8% of the rally

Break below that level and it could be a sign we’re in for some something deeper.. but until then this is an area where it might make sense to find some life

Important spot to hold for bulls

***
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[BEARRy MARShmallow @Scorpio_Alejand]

I'd call it Inflation Protection Opportunity:

Ethanol is going to catch up Diesel and Gasoline (helped even by new laws allowing the blend!)

Ethanol is made with Corn.

Corn #2 Future will be soon back at $800/bu !
i.e. +70% from now
👇🏼

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

8.00 corn. Wow. I guess we will see

[BEARRy MARShmallow @Scorpio_Alejand]

@mikemcglone11 Have you considered increasing Corn Demand from E15 Ethanol Blend Law ?
My target for Corn is $800
https://t.co/vrZZ3RY2II

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

@DDFalpha Taken care of means what?

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

@GoddessofGrain @OliverSloup What does "soybeans have all been taken care of mean" ???

[Jeremey Frost @FearlessGrain]

Buy the dip from the lack of news coming out of China meeting?

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

A commodity super cycle is in the works.

STAY LONG COMMODITIES.