Levered Star Signs

Long / Short fundamental star sign investor, occasionally dabble in stellar drift. Rigourously process driven. Try to avoid Black Holes.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@anchovycapital Is there a moat around Hostel bookings?

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@anchovycapital Occupancy improvements fall straight to margin, have seen it play out elsewhere. Think going down lender solution a terrible idea here with equity offer on the table but don’t know negotiation dynamics.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@HighYieldYoda @HYBondLover @anchovycapital SUNs possibly the best trade in the stack ironically. But high risk / low Sharpe strategy - easier ways to make 10-12%.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@HYBondLover @anchovycapital Margin squeeze is not just Legoland, happening across estate.

They have spent 2-3x more capex outside of new Legoland perimeter for no growth last 7 years.

33% of estate is still UK, Universal impairs that value. Terminal value of these assets definitely lower now.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@HYBondLover @anchovycapital Depends when you mean by terminal decline - ROIC is appalling and getting worse, margins squeezed maybe permanently as limited pricing power, 7yr performance vs main parks terrible, track record on new openings bad, big threats on the horizon. Some good assets but the biz?

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@johnnyboy9918 @McgavinRich @jim_demps McDermott basically has his hands on the ball and Kinghorn keeps rolling. The rolling law is a bit nonsensical at the best of times, but he’s just given a penalty for the same thing 4 mins ago so it is inconsistent and it’s that which I find so unsatisfying watching rugby.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@FundamentEdge How do you separate the impact of a potential recession on demand vs. just tariff impact on GP/shoe & EPS?

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@AyyouEm Its partner in crime quacks like a EUR loan at least

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@JulianBulaon A) are you making a fairness argument in favour of lenders? Good luck with that!
B) in theory, they could just ask for an amendment and instead of a fee you get to keep your current margin as theoretically they could reduce that (lower leverage). Or they could yank you.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@JulianBulaon LevFin docs are just an extremely elaborate and very successful fee extraction mechanism for lawyers. Ironically they now make more than most of the financiers for this scheme.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@JulianBulaon The “justification” is if they refinanced at the point they hit the high water mark the fixed would be updated to that level and lenders would do it because the company is presumably performing. Easier in loans than in bonds.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@boyinthesteppe Suspect they have derisked that already and are only a RCF lender in name

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@jaredwright17 His hand is in touch before he touches down, got away with it

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@CasinoCapital Compliance departments

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@LostFundamental Probably correct although IMHO the ERP shouldn’t vary as much with rates as the basic formula suggests - market prices do move to change the “market return” component of that formula to some extent

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@AltaFoxCapital Seen this in every L/S manager closing down because of “a broken market” - every $ taken out of the business

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@boyinthesteppe @steven____o @HYBondLover 3.2bn EBITDA (your RG number) at below average 4x EBITDA multiple is 13bn. 5bn in unsubs, even discounted, is material to story and therefore legal implications matter. See you have gone looking for old tweets to start throwing out ad hominems now so this is my last response.

[Levered Star Signs @AstrologyCap]

@boyinthesteppe @steven____o @HYBondLover You are right about the operational issues, not arguing about that (could argue quantum but fine). Your original point was that value in the unsubs is gone - my point is that the value there can't be discounted. At up to 5bn, it's material to the story here. No law broken (yet).