Michal

The market doesn't know your positions. It doesn't care about your thesis. It only cares about liquidity.

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

US electricity demand is seeing the strongest 4-year growth since 2000.

Natural gas = 43% of all US electricity (2024 record).

Data center demand: +131% by 2027.
LNG exports: +60% by 2027.
EIA forecast: HH avg $3.80 in 2026.
Current spot: $2.84.

34% below forecast. Supply shock active. Math doesn't lie.

(data: EIA STEO Mar 2026, IEA)

$natgas

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

As some liked my mid terms chart. here is the history of fiscal and monetary policymakers FAFO. Its part of the linked in next comment "fan favorite" Narrative Island Report

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

I’m of opinion that even if Bessent and BoJ intervened in #oil futures markets it was mostly noise in grand scheme of things. The main drivers are Chinese scaling back buying in Q2 (via drop in refineries utilization and products export ban), Hormuz traffic fluctuations and Russian refiners capacity being decimated by Ukraine (40% down). You can count tankers but ultimately it’s all reflected in the price.
-Mar-June China banned refined product exports but eased restrictions in July-Aug, allowing for higher refineries runs (higher crude oil demand)
-Chinese buying spiked in July and price pushed higher and now they are pulling back again and oil price softened. They are the major influence of crude oil price on the margin.
-Administration has been focused on bringing oil prices down while consumers are actually impacted by price of refined products which are all sitting near ATHs. We treasure what we measure and Trump and Bessent were measuring the wrong thing
-H/T @Rory_Johnston for chart below

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@Kacper_PK_CH Interesting. 10% div ? Did you go through DD ?

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@FinansowyUmysl Energia

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@THOR77_PL Przyczyna (szklana kula) ? Spike na surowcach energetycznych powodujący presję na wzrost dxy.

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@THOR77_PL Cykl Hursta wskazuje na presję w dol i szukanie dna w końcówce q4/poczatek 27. Ja obstawiam minimum retest. Może undercut. Wątpliwie dużo niżej.

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@PartTimeCharts 👀

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@GoldnGuitars Thanks Andy. I’m playing the same. What invalidates your concept ?

[Andrew 🇨🇦 @GoldnGuitars]

A few years ago, I got a random message from a guy named Kevin asking me some questions about cycles. He claimed to work for BlackRock, but I didn't believe him.

Well, he wasn't lying. And today I'm excited to announce that I'm working with @kevtanggg and his new company, @hellotradeapp. The vision is to bring 24/7 trading to global markets.

Today we're deep into alpha testing: building, trading, and improving the user experience at every step.

If you're interested in trading and developing the product with us, send me a DM! I'd be happy to share more about what we're building.

And maybe a cycle trade or two along the way.

[The Crude Chronicles 🛢 @crudechronicle]

Couldn't agree more with Greg

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@Namzes_G When do you start observing lower time frames to spot the bottom ? September or rather January ?

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

“Circular financing, for the lack of better word, is good”- probably Jansen Huang 😄 What’s $3T in liabilities between friends

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

Stop worrying about what Jukan, Citrini, Leopold, Burry, Andy etc. are doing & putting everyone’s misses under microscope. Learn from what has worked & what hasn’t. It’s not a zero sum game. Channel the energy you spend on trolling towards improving your own process & building your own success.

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@Namzes_G

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

$BTC so far having trouble clearing 67K. Pretty weak grinding bounce consistent with LT basing / ranging. Below 50 DMA (63.2k) not interested in trading longs as 80D cycle might be rolling over. Note $XRP making 52W lows today - not a good sign. I’ve noticed it often leads $BTC

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

1) Silver $SI_F potentially formed 40W cycle low with decent move off the lows last week.
-Current 40D cycle (shown below) should still have more upside in Aug
-I am trading it on long side but big picture wise I suspect the rally will fail and we have a date with 48-49 ATH retest around October where we have next 20W cycle low (blue projection in bottom panel) Cont..

[Andrew 🇨🇦 @GoldnGuitars]

Gold Cycle Map #13 - A Sukkaz Rally.

We've been anticipating a strong rally for #gold for quite some time. Patience is king.

Now that we're here, and everyone is pointing fingers and laughing at all the bears, let's remember that this fake-out / suckers rally has been anticipated for quite sometime.

No need to panic long, let's just let time and structure do the thinking / positioning for us.

Time says: We're in week 19 of a failed weekly cycle. The last One lasted only 21 weeks, so a bit longer makes sense - let's say late September, similar to the 7YCL from late September 2022. This 8th intermediate cycle will house the YCL.

Structure says: We've been in a complex B-wave since the end of March. This Current impulse is a 'c' within that B.

Still room to the upside. Possibly 4410, even 4600.

Please like and repost!

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

@AtlantaFed #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q3 2026 is 6.2%:

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

$DXY 80D cycle low due around now similar to USD $JPY cycle which suggests yen intervention will fail
-Historically central banks interventions in Emergent markets FX fail. Bessent should know that first hand
-Japanese real interest rate remains negative with inflation rising and fiscal situation worsening with BoJ behind on hiking cycle

[Michal @asymmetricPL]

@Namzes_G I was bit late. But now I grabbed ACDC and happy to hold through next frac cycle. Drill baby drill