Stalin, a supremely paranoid man, was positive Hitler would not invade in 1941 because a two front war would be very stupid. But it turns out dictators with fanatical ideologies and narrow inner circles do very stupid things.
People are more likely to support partisan violence if they think the other party does too.
This gives us all an incredibly powerful, high-leverage tool we can use to reduce mass political violence: Sharing the real (very low) numbers on how many people actually support it.
I just published a new article titled “Criminal Violence, the State, and Society” in @AnnualReviews, which examines the growing political science research on criminal violence over the past 15 years.
Link 👉https://t.co/46SHsM6KJX
1/ Here is a summary of some key insights...
The premise that the US and its allies and partners should be able to fight wars without feeling the retaliation just sort of crept into policy and is getting unsustainable.
Cameroon's Biya, 92, following the dictator's playbook by completely reorganizing the military leadership just days after announcing his latest campaign for the presidency. https://t.co/OPt5ZctV6u
Embattled US Ruler Deploys Armed Troops Against Citizens Amid Mass Protests Over Regime’s Kidnapping Spree — One Day After Oligarch Ally Alleges Links to Epstein Scandal
Hegseth’s moment. The sole reason such an unserious person was put in there was for the possibility of breaking the taboo of deploying active duty military against US citizens.
The Nazi-Soviet war of 1941-45 was a war between two genocidal totalitarian regimes in which the Western Allies used the somewhat less monstrous of the two to defeat the somewhat more monstrous one, then spent the next four decades containing and defeating the other one 🧵
I know terrorism is passé & it's all about strategic competition. But it was a terrorist attack that brought Iran/Israel to the brink of war & it was a terrorist attack that could lead to #IndiaPakistanWar btwn 2 nuclear armed rivals on the subcontinent. Terrorism still matters.
Try to imagine a US President telling Ford that they shouldn't sell cars to foreigners, and that they should cut their R&D. It wouldn't happen. But that's what we're doing to one of America's most important exports: Education. 🧵
Read Rumeysa Ozturk's op-ed for yourself.
Arresting anyone for their speech is unconstitutional and authoritarian.
But arresting her for *this* speech is just psychotic.
https://t.co/Q3bi7MOYXc
As pro-Israel influence in American society is increasingly concentrated at the top, closer to state power, and as the American grassroots are increasingly pro-Palestinian. This is what the face of pro-Israel politics in America will look like.
So basically the Palestine policy: bolster Hamas, weaken the PA, divide and conquer. "That will keep us safe." Except it didnt.
At this moment, it would be so easy to work with its neighbors to turn a new page in the region.
But where would Netanyahu be without war?
The idea that the US today is somehow "less democratic" than when only property-holding white males could vote or when half the country had seceded is embarrassing. Immediately puts the scholarship of anyone sharing this under question for academic fraud/ cognitive impairment.
I want everyone celebrating cuts to NIH and NSF and other government agencies that fund research to pause for a second and look their smart phone.
Anywhere between 75% and 85% of the technology it uses comes from government-funded research: GPS (DOD), touch-screen (NSF)…
1/4