It’s pretty cool to be living in a time when we may be the first generation to not die. I’m not suggesting immortality, but lifespans so long that we stop thinking about lifespans.
🚨JUST IN: Andrew Tate rants about how every woman has switched from drinking normal Milk to Oat Milk:
"It bothers me because of narcissism…you’re not lactose intolerant. You have no problems with normal milk."
go to bed
right now
i know the build is almost finished
the eval can wait til morning
the agent will still be failing tomorrow
you won't figure out why it's hallucinating
yes your coworker ships on 4 hrs of sleep
they also hallucinate a lot
off you go
10 emails you should send this week to upgrade your life. None of these take more than 5 minutes.
1. Email a man making 10x your income asking ONE question about his industry. Be specific. No "can I pick your brain."
2. Email a high school friend you have not spoken to in 5 years. The ones who got rich are the ones who kept their network warm.
3. Email your bank asking for a fee waiver on your account. They give it to anyone who asks. Most people never ask.
4. Email a local business owner offering a free week of work. Pick one with a clear weakness (bad website, no social media). Free week becomes paid client.
5. Email your old boss thanking him for hiring you. Even if you hated it. The relationship is worth more than the grudge.
6. Email a podcast you listen to with a guest suggestion (not yourself). They will remember the man who helped them, not the man who pitched himself.
7. Email your CRM provider, internet provider, gym - asking what loyalty discount is available. 3 of 5 will give you 10-30% off.
8. Email a creator you admire offering to edit their next video for free. Free becomes paid in 60 days if your work is good.
9. Email a mentor you respect saying THANK YOU and naming the specific lesson that changed you. They get pitched 100 times - thanked maybe twice a year.
10. Email your future self at 35 describing the man you are today. Open it in 7 years.
Most men will not send any of these. The ones who send 5 will compound for the next decade.
🚨WATCH: Andrew Tate demonstrates how your phone is always spying on you, even when it’s turned off 😳
"The new world order is the smartphone. You cannot escape."
Been doing some math on hourly/rate for my current portfolio under current conditions (assuming 6h a day) and the rate is way less than what I made playing poker in 2020 lmaooo I don’t quit poker to compound my portfolio and 5 years later after being successful at that making less than what I made playing poker which btw was far more creative and competitive and enjoyable than fucking yield farming
6 hours a day is a lot, and is probably what I dedicated in 2024-2025. We gotta account for all the time in discord, twitter, research, wallet stalking, chart watching, etc.
I don’t think in 2026 I’ve dedicated 6 hours on average, probably half that, but even then, the difference in hourly rate vs 2025 is abysmal.
In 2024 I 3xed portfolio iirc but my portfolio starting point was small compared to 2025 and 2026. But even then, the hourly was far bigger than now (after accounting for risk which erodes a part of your Apr).
In 2025 I only 1.25xed portfolio but my starting point in sheer size was bigger therefore reached the sweet spot (it was by far my greatest year in $ terms).
In 2026 portfolio starting point is highest ever of course, but yields are so terrible that hourly is 5-10x lower than previous years (assuming 6h/day).
The only possible answer is set:
-long term farms that won’t need to touch in weeks/months (think about how likely it is someone will fuck your farm or the farm conditions will change)
-good EV (this is basic otherwise wtf are you even doing)
-diversified enough (won’t enter in this topic today but I feel it’s even more important to diversify and reduce volatility of a portfolio in shit times than in good times)
-and be happy with mediocre yield and stop hustling for literal crumbs.
In other words, the only possible answer, as a yield farmer in 2026, is Pareto maxxing. Just explained why, but there is more explanation in case it’s necessary:
a) Either you are broke and yield farming offers you a ridiculous hourly rate therefore you should do something different in your life
b) or you have enough portfolio to keep yield farming. But in that case, are you really in a position financially or in your life overall in which it makes sense to peak perform for such shit hourly rate while you’re looking at a 7+ figure portfolio?
The answer is Pareto again.
Reduce your peak performing, stick to long term stuff, reduce volatility in your portfolio as much as possible by diversifying risks, reduce your hours spent in crypto, and then be happy with 50-70% of what you would have made had you peak performed, but having cut your hours by let’s say 70-80%, your hourly (at least until conditions change) will still be something that won’t make your 5 year younger self embarrassed.
As always, this is a message to my subconscious. Seeing my projected hourly rate for 2026 really was a breakthrough and made me feel retarded for having spent so much time in crypto in these last 3.5 months of 2026 (even though it was half or less than previous couple years)
I’ve also given some thought to doing something different than yield farming. I was trading relatively successfully in 2021-2023 and it was more interesting than yield farming. Yield farming has the attractiveness of “passive income”, but what the hell is ‘passive’ in 6 hours a day lmao
TLDR: hourly in 2026 is shot. Either you’re poor and yield farming doesn’t make sense economically, or you’re rich and yield farming (peak performing) doesn’t make sense from a life enjoying perspective. In that case, look for long term stuff, don’t worry about getting the extra % yield, and enjoy life or pursue other interests or money-making venues!
I’ve personally finally decided to start rehabilitating as a yield farmer addict.
Hope this is helpful for some of you!
@akarlin - Street food is the opposite of healthy and not “delicious”
- Thais think you’re a loser farang
- Extreme air pollution and abuse of plastics
- Extreme UV index
- just say you’re poor
🚨Andrew Tate tells the story of how Tristan’s joke in a Romanian court potentially cost them their freedom 😳😂
“Matrix attack”
They got their shortest court date ever and went straight back to jail 💀
Been away for a while. 6 days only, not much. My cat turned out to very likely have asthma, so that sucks and been taking care of her and doing some changes in the house.
Stuff like this helps put things into perspective, and realizing how meaningless and stupid crypto is. I'm still doing soul searching.
Anyway, last tweet I wrote was one of my best tweets and I've been building a little bit on it.
I've been discovering the markets on my own since late 2020, and at every step of the way I got surprised by how much every dinamic in trading and in the markets was extremely similar to poker. Several breakthroughs throughout the years, and this one framing yield farming in EV terms, same as we framed every action at the poker table in such terms, was quite impactful.
I learned to think in EV terms also in my farms. This is even more important now that all EV's are giga compressed vs 2024-2025.
Let's do a small recap on current state of portfolio:
My farming portfolio is averaging 21-22% APR, and a weighted-EV of 2.69. This number means for every 1$ at risk for the whole year, I'd expect to make 1.69$ in profit.
That sounds great at first, but it really means I'm gonna make on average only net 62% (1.69/2.69) out of 22% apr, so after accounting for risk, that's a net of 13.2% of my farming portfolio. Which is still a good number in dollar terms, but let's be honest,
That's shit. 13.2% net. And that's before accounting for the extreme volatility of a "long term" realized EV that might be achieved in perhaps 20-30 years. It means nothing bad could happen in this 2026 sample, no exploit or black swan, and i would make 22% on portfolio; but could also mean a 10% is wiped out if a farm with that exposure gets turkey'd (yield farming is the life of a turkey) and i make 12%, or 30% is wiped out if a big position allegedly very low risk (think aave or very very low risk stuff) and i make -8% on the year.
That's really not great. It's still profitable if you know what you're doing, but it's far from great.
Just to put it into context, here are some farms from the 2024-2025 era in terms of EV:
-Aave weeth/weeth loops in etherfi season 2. risk: aave 2% lets say, ethfi 2% let's say at the time (im being generous on both). Total risk: 4%
Reward apr: 250%
EV: 62.5 (LOL)
So we're talking 25x more profitable than my current farms. There have been a lot of similar farms (a handful as great or even better, the majority of those in early 2024), and a lot more of perhaps not that great but let's say half as good. Even those half as good farms easily offered 5-6x the risk/reward of our current environment.
2024-2025 had a few absurd risk/reward farms, which were mostly taken by peak performers, and a lot more still pretty good stuff, that the kinda smart motivated farmer could still easily take advantage of (and again, offered him 5-6x higher evs than current farms). And let's say slightly winnning or break even for the mediocre farmer (or the better known as "retard").
2026 has mediocre (still positive) EV for the peak performer, probably slightly losing for the mid farmer (not to mention the extreme volatility), and clearly very negative EV (we're seeing so many exploits also lol) for the casual yield farmer (again, the retard).
Where am I going with all this doomer shit?
I think my EV estimates are pretty accurate. This means yield farming in the current state of affairs is kinda dead (things could still get worse btw and EVs of the best farms even more compressed towards 1), and for me it means a lot of peace of mind in understanding and putting into numbers that if I don't peak perform in these times and don't APR max, its totally fine.
My focus now is on farms that can last for a while, low risk overall, highest possible EV (which as mentioned are super low compared to 2024-2025), and try to dedicate as least time as possible in defi. In poker, hourly rate is very important, and it's undeniable my hourly rate in yield farming is not that great in 2026 even though my portfolio has grown. Which is a reason to keep grinding tbh, since your portfolio growing means even if EVs are compressed u can still kinda compensate that fact by the sheer size of your portfolio.
And finally, and more importantly, it also means it's time to look for a different game.
It was yield farming of NFTs, ETF and BTC season, memecoins, retarded weeth/weeth loops for 250% APR, pendle PT loops when no one was looking, predeposits season, presales season (lol), Ethena season, then perp season (this farmer told u to fade that shit after lighter dropped), and now the hot potato seems to be Polymarket.
I expect Polymarket to be very decent at least until more smart farmers get there and figure out that game as well. In the meantime, it's time to move on from larping as a yield farmer quant, to larping as a geopolitical macro quant. 🫡
TLDR: evs low, yield farming kinda dead, if ur reading this u should prob stop lending me money, polymarket good, braindead people betting on geopolitics are the new yield
https://t.co/ZZACSa5Rxq