Álvaro (Aragâo) Athayde

Retired computer engineer

[Álvaro (Aragâo) Athayde @athayde_a]

Vou tentar explicitar A Minha Visão do que se está a passar em termos de Relações entre Potências.
https://t.co/MDJqIixSUo

[Infodex @infodexx]

Ethnic groups in Austria-Hungary, 1910.

[Epic Maps 🗺️ @theepicmap]

The last time each European country was occupied

[Global Surveillance @Globalsurv]

🇪🇪🇷🇺🇪🇺🇺🇲Estonia Warns Russia If It Strikes Its Territory, NATO will take Kaliningrad and Carry Out Deep Strikes Inside Russian Territory.

Estonia and Lithuania officials stated NATO has capabilities to size Russia's Kaliningrad and strike deep strikes inside Russia if Moscow attacks a Baltic state.
Estonia FM Margus stated US Russia invades, "We bring war to Russia ".

Lithuania officials backed by a US general have informed that Kaliningrad could be neutralized quickly because it is surrounded by NATO territory.

Russia has warned any attack on Kaliningrad would be a direct attack on Russia and will respond with all means including Nuclear strikes.

Kaliningrad is heavily armed Baltic outpost for Russia and also possesses nuclear weapons arsenal. Incase of any attack Kremlin could possibly use the arsenal to strike NATO territories.

[Guerra en la Universidad @GuerraenlaUni]

Ayer comentaba en un tuit lo que se parece el territorio del reino de Saba de hace casi tres mil años y el que ocupan los hutíes. Hoy os cuento en siete tuits lo que Saba nos dice del Yemen actual.->

[Marco | Independent Analyst @Marcorio61O]

🚨 A GERMAN INDUSTRY CHIEF JUST ADMITTED WHY THE WAR CONTINUES: LITHIUM.

Ulrich Blum, director of the German Lithium Institute, in an interview with Deutsche Welle:

"Ceding Donbass to Russia would endanger Europe's access to Ukrainian lithium — crucial for the energy transition. It would compromise Ukraine's reconstruction, and instability would discourage investment. Driving Putin out is vital for Europe and Ukraine."

➡️ Let that sink in.

The director of a German institute is not talking about sovereignty. Not about democracy. Not about the people of Donbass. He is talking about access to lithium.

➡️ The resource in question.

The Shevchenko lithium deposit — Europe's largest — is located in western Donetsk. Estimated reserves: 13.8 million tonnes of lithium ore. According to EU experts, it alone could meet the EU's entire lithium demand until 2050.

➡️ The problem.

That deposit is now under total Russian control. Russian forces captured the Shevchenko settlement in late December 2024. The Ukrainian army no longer extracts anything from there.

➡️ So here is the question nobody in Brussels wants to answer.

If Europe needed Ukrainian lithium for the energy transition — and the largest deposits are in Donbass — why did the West choose war instead of peace?

➡️ A peace agreement in 2022 would have guaranteed access.

The Istanbul communiqué of April 2022 outlined a neutral Ukraine with security guarantees. The Minsk agreements of 2014-2015 provided for Donbass autonomy within Ukraine. Either framework would have left the lithium in Ukrainian — and therefore European — hands.

➡️ Instead, the West chose escalation.

Boris Johnson flew to Kyiv in April 2022 to kill the Istanbul deal. The Minsk agreements were declared dead by Merkel and Hollande themselves. The result: Russia now controls the very resources Europe claimed to need.

➡️ This is not strategy. This is not even competent imperialism. It is stupidity dressed as principle.

If the goal was lithium, peace would have delivered it. War delivered it to Moscow instead.

➡️ Dossier #120 — The Dmitriev Package — already documented this. Resources, territory, and the architecture of a negotiated partition. The West is now learning what it should have known from the start: you cannot extract lithium from a war zone you do not control.

Independent analysis. No ideology. Just facts.

Marco | Independent Analyst ⚖️✓
#Lithium #Ukraine #Donbass #EnergyTransition #EU #Russia #CriticalMinerals #Geopolitics

[AJ Signal @aj_geo_analysis]

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗮𝘂𝗱𝗶 𝗬𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝗶 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗜𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄. 𝗜𝘁 𝗜𝘀 𝗮 𝗡𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘁𝘆 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗢𝗹𝗱 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗿𝗮𝘄𝗻 𝗯𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝗿.

Those who know my writing, know I love maps because maps tell stories that our collective memories may have forgotten due to shifting narratives over time.

The Yemen and Saudi Arabia story is no different.

To understand the Houthi grievance against Saudi Arabia, you have to go back to 1934, because the roots run far deeper than most coverage shows these days.

This is verifiable history, not propaganda from either side.

In 1934 the new Kingdom of Saudi Arabia went to war with the Zaydi imamate of northern Yemen. It was a short war, under three months, and Saudi Arabia won due to support it got from the British.

Its forces took the provinces of Asir, Najran and Jizan, and even occupied the Yemeni port of Hodeidah.

The war ended with the Treaty of Taif, signed in June 1934. Under British and Italian pressure, and with the Yemeni imam militarily weakened, Yemen recognized Saudi control of the three provinces, paid an indemnity in gold, and Saudi Arabia withdrew from Hodeidah in return.

Here is the detail that still matters.

1. The Taif Treaty of 1934 was not a permanent, unconditional cession or surrender. It granted Saudi sovereignty over the provinces on a RENEWABLE term, with clauses guaranteeing the local population visa-free movement and the right to live and work across the border as equals.

2. In the Yemeni reading, articulated again in various Arabic and English media reports I saw, the imam back then signed only "because he was weak", and he built the Treaty so that a future, stronger Yemen could one day RECLAIM what was taken. That is the historical spine of the current claim. What does that mean for today? That means IF the war with Yemen goes the way the Ansarallah Houthis want it to go, it is likely that Saudi Arabia may lose those provinces. This makes the war for Saudi Arabia existential as well.

3. The relationship soured after Yemen's 1962 republican revolution, and Saudi Arabia has intervened in Yemeni affairs, by the Yemeni account, more or less continuously since.

4. Then came the 2015 coalition war, hundreds of thousands of airstrikes, a blockade, and a civilian death toll the @UN has put in the hundreds of thousands from bombing, famine and disease combined.

Ninety years of a contested border, an unequal treaty, and a modern war stacked on top of each other. Whatever you think of the Houthis, their fight with Riyadh did not begin in 2015. It began in 1934, and it has NEVER fully ended.

History and context matters if you want to understand current dynamics. This is what I try to cover and shed light on. They need peace. All sides.

Below image is of Muhammad al-Badr, last Imam and King of Yemen.

𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘!!

[Adam | Faithful Messenger @Adam_FaithfulM]

Seven times in John's Gospel, Jesus begins a sentence with two words that got Him nearly stoned.

Not "I teach." Not "I bring." I am.

For a first-century Jewish audience, those two words weren't a figure of speech. They were the name God gave Himself at the burning bush.

Here are all seven, and what each one claims.

A thread 🧵

[Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 @Alex_Oloyede2]

🇪🇪🇷🇺 "We can take Kaliningrad but we don't to not provoke Russia. Putin needs to understand: if he crosses the line, we will act.., If Russia attacks Estonia, we bring the war to Russia, we know all the points"

– Estonian FM Margus Tsahkna

Kaliningrad is a nuclear armed city, it can't be taken because Moscow will not lose a nuclear launch site without using it. And bringing the war to Russia how? Europe can barely defend Ukraine, how will it defend all its air space? I remind you Ukraine has one of the most complex air defense layers in the world and it's not stopping a Zircon, 90% of Iskanders or the Kinzhal.

Without the US involved (which it won't), Europe would lose badly in a conventional war against Russia. We have spent 4yrs, battle testing missiles and drones against the best of NATO's defense systems. And what is Estonia talking about bringing the war to Russia when its capital is of FAB-3000 range?

What's with the recent war rhetorics amongst weak European countries? You don't see the UK and France making such reckless statements. Ukraine was the best shot the EU had – joint military support, production and Economic pressure and it still lost to Russia. Push for peace instead.

[Philiponet Rémi 🇨🇵 @RPhiliponet]

Ulrich Blum 🇩🇪, directeur de l'Institut allemand du lithium balance une des raison de la continuation de la guerre :

« Céder le Donbass à la Russie mettrait en péril l'accès de l'Europe au lithium ukrainien crucial pour la transition énergétique.
Cela compromettrait la reconstruction de l'Ukraine, et l'instabilité découragerait les investissements.
Chasser Poutine est vital pour l'Europe et l'Ukraine. »

Cela s'appelle "Wishful thinking", c'est-à-dire, prendre ses désirs pour la réalité, alors que l'armée otano-ukrainienne perd chaque jour du terrain et enregistre des pertes humaines et matérielles énormes.
La principale mine de lithium en Europe, située dans le Donbass, est, aujourd'hui, sous le contrôle total de la Russie.
Sans compter une immense réserve de gaz dans le Donbass.

[Torné @xmtorne]

Como historiadores do nacionalismo espanhol do século XIX podiam projetar 1 imagem da construçom nacional da Espanha, nom sendo naçom , sem contratempos? .Inventando 1 continuidade histórica a partir do Reino Visigodo, ignorando todos os reinos anteriores e Suevos;#HistoriaFake

[AJ Signal @aj_geo_analysis]

𝗜𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗣𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗡𝗮𝗷𝗿𝗮𝗻, 𝗝𝗶𝘇𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗿, 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗚𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗺 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗡𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘁𝘆 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝘆.

Here is the part of the Yemen war almost no one in the West is tracking, and it may be the most dangerous if the war will continue between the Saudis and the Yemeni faction of the Ansarallah Houthis.

The three Saudi provinces on the Yemeni border, Najran, Jizan and Asir highlighted on the map below are viewed by most Yemenis as "historically theirs", taken by Saudi Arabia in the 1934 war and formalized by a treaty the Yemeni side considers signed under duress.

I do not endorse violence nor do I agree with the Houthis or anyone else in this war at all, but we must look at this from a strategic realism perspective.

1. IF the Ansrallah Houthi forces advance into those three provinces, they will NOT withdraw, even if Saudi Arabia offers to leave Yemen entirely and meet every current demand. The reasoning was pure strategic realism and game theory.

2. To take that land and then hand it back would be a cultural "shame borne" by every future Yemeni generation.

And they would argue the legal ground is now theirs, that Saudi Arabia broke the Taif Treaty's of 1934 and its terms first through decades of interference and a decade of war, which in the Yemeni reading voids the cession and revives the older claim.

This reframes the war entirely. It stops being only about reopening Yemeni ports and becomes about redrawing a border drawn by force in 1934.

A demand to reopen Hodeidah can be settled at a table. But a demand to reclaim three provinces cannot, because no Saudi ruler can surrender sovereign territory and survive politically, and no Yemeni commander who captured it could return it without "cultural disgrace or shame" that cannot be understood in the Western cultures because of the deep familial ties and honour codes that exists in these cultures.

Both sides would be locked into positions neither can walk back.

See full analysis here: https://t.co/ynh2lot92f

𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘!!

[𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝 𝐙 🇷🇺 🇷🇸🇮🇪 @SMO_VZ]

💢 WAR DRUMS in RUSSIA are Heard from St Petersburg to Vladivostok !

NATO is about to find out what it is to awaken the Russian Bear for Good !

'If Europe does attack Russia, this would be a different war — and it will be very brief' — Lavrov, as Europe keeps talking about a war with Russia

‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦

Russia will consider the deployment of Western military contingents in Ukraine as an act of war, - Lavrov.

▪️Moscow does not plan to attack Western countries, but if there is an attack from Europe, "it will be a completely different war, and it will be very short."

▪️The conflict in Ukraine is a result of the West's expansionist policy, and its resolution requires achieving the original goals of the special military operation.

▪️The fulfillment of these tasks should contribute to changing the situation in Eurasia and forming a new world order.

▪️Lavrov also accused Kiev of systematically suppressing everything Russian and stated that Western countries are trying to interfere in the voting in the State Duma elections, both outside of Russia and within the country.

▪️Moscow will wait for proposals for new negotiations on Ukraine, but it does not have high hopes.

[Disclose.tv @disclosetv]

NEW - Germany's former Chancellor Merkel suddenly reveals how Bill Gates exerted pressure on policymakers regarding vaccinations.

[Marco | Independent Analyst @Marcorio61O]

🚨 PUTIN JUST SAID THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD: "DONBASS AND NOVOROSSIYA."

In his televised address ahead of the State Duma elections (18-20 September), Putin told the nation:

"Residents of Donbass and Novorossiya will be voting for State Duma deputies for the first time since their reunification with Russia."

➡️ Why this matters more than the election itself.

He didn't just say "Donbass." He said "Donbass and Novorossiya" — two separate things, one word carrying an entire territorial programme.

➡️ What is Novorossiya?

It is not a region. It is a claim. The term — "New Russia" — was invented by the Russian Empire in the late 18th century for colonised lands across southeastern Ukraine. It reemerged in 2014 as a Kremlin narrative to reframe occupied Ukrainian territory as "historically Russian."

➡️ What does it include today?

Under the Kremlin's own interpretation: Crimea, the four partially occupied oblasts — and Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odesa.

That is not a peace position. That is a map.

➡️ The election is the mechanism, not the story.

By holding Duma voting in occupied territories, Moscow is not just organising a ballot. It is performing sovereignty over land it does not fully control — and normalising the claim that these territories are already Russia, not Ukraine under occupation.

➡️ Ukraine's response:

The SBU has warned residents not to participate, calling the vote illegal and warning of possible false-flag attacks during the 18-20 September window to justify repression and derail US-mediated talks.

➡️ The EU's response:

Brussels has already stated it will never recognise the results of any "elections" organised by the Russian occupation administration in Ukrainian territory. Ambassador Lambrinidis to the UN: "Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia are Ukraine."

➡️ The real signal:

Putin is not campaigning. He is legislating the next phase of the war — turning military occupation into administrative fact, and turning "Novorossiya" from a propaganda word into an electoral constituency.

The elections end on 20 September. The claim they embed does not.

This connects to Dossier #120 — The Dmitriev Package. Resources, territory, and the architecture of a negotiated partition.

Independent analysis. No ideology. Just facts.

Marco | Independent Analyst ⚖️✓
#Putin #Novorossiya #Donbass #Ukraine #Duma2026 #Russia #EU #Geopolitics

[CJ Hopkins @CJHopkins_Z23]

"Please, no one come at me with 'free speech' ... that's a libertarian political mindset from parts of the USA that I do not share." - Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor, September 2026
https://t.co/4gH0PcYBwj

[CBS News @CBSNews]

New photos obtained exclusively by CBS News reveal for the first time the widespread damage and destruction of buildings and vehicles at multiple U.S. positions across the Middle East, as a result of Iranian missile and drone attacks. The images were sent to CBS News by active service members on condition of anonymity.

"This is major damage to our bases that hasn't been communicated to the American public," one deployed service member said. "We're standing there with our eyes closed getting punched in the face."

CBS News' @JonahPKaplan has more. https://t.co/dxfBRsgLvM

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

Yup, this is a big deal: the Pinglu Canal is China's first river-to-sea canal since the founding of the People's Republic.

It cost US$10.2 billion to build and is designed for 5000-ton ships of 90 meter length.

It's part of a bigger master plan that China calls the "New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor" (ILSTC, 西部陆海新通道) to solve a structural geographic problem: the country's vast western interior (places like Chongqing, Sichuan Guangxi, Guizhou, Gansu, Qinghai) has historically been cut off from global shipping lanes, with goods having to travel east - often thousands of kilometers - to reach the coast at ports like Guangzhou or Shanghai before heading out to sea.

Which is super inconvenient for, for instance, China's trade with ASEAN - its biggest trading partner today.

Up until recently, if you wanted to ship something from, say, Chongqing to Vietnam, you had to go east all the way down to Guangzhou before you could head back south. A massive detour.

In effect the entire logic of the plan, including the Pinglu Canal, is to reorient the economic geography of China's less developed western provinces away from dependence on the wealthy eastern seaboard and toward direct engagement with Southeast Asia.

It's as much about internal rebalancing - developing the west - as it is about external trade connectivity.

[Current Report @Currentreport1]

US, Israeli and several Arab military chiefs held a secret meeting in Germany last week to discuss the war with Iran, Axios reports.

The meeting was organized by US central command chief Brad Cooper and included top military commanders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt, along with senior US and Israeli commanders.

It was the first meeting of its kind since the US and Israel went to war with Iran more than 6 months ago.

[Marco | Independent Analyst @Marcorio61O]

🚨 TRUMP MADE A DEAL WITH ZELENSKY. THEN RUSSIA TOOK THE LAND. NOW TRUMP IS TALKING TO MOSCOW.

The US-Ukraine minerals deal was signed in April 2025. It gave Washington access to Ukraine's rare earths, lithium, titanium, oil, and gas. There was just one problem: 70% of those resources sit in territory controlled by Russia.

➡️ THE DEAL THAT WASN'T — April 30, 2025: the "Reconstruction Investment Fund" is signed. 50% of new extraction revenues go to a joint fund. Ukraine keeps legal ownership. The US gets privileged access. But no security guarantees were included. Forbes Ukraine values Ukraine's mineral wealth at $14.8 trillion. The catch: over 70% is in Donetsk and Luhansk. In other words: the deal was signed for resources Ukraine does not control.

➡️ THE RUSSIAN COUNTER-OFFER — Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, met Steve Witkoff at least nine times since April 2025. The "Dmitriev Package" offers Washington access to Arctic oil and gas, rare earths, nuclear-powered data centers, and a Bering Strait tunnel. The price tag? $12 to $14 trillion. Zelensky called it out first. Dmitriev then raised the figure. Putin's message to Trump is simple: "Russia has resources. America needs resources. Let's make a deal."

➡️ THE DONBASS LEASE — The plan negotiated in Miami between Witkoff and Dmitriev has 28 points. The core: Ukraine leases the Donbass to Russia. Moscow keeps de facto control. Kyiv keeps legal title. A rent is paid. Why lease? Because the Ukrainian constitution requires a referendum to cede territory — and that referendum would never pass. The lease is a legal workaround.

➡️ THE STRATEGIC PARADOX — The lease implicitly recognizes that the Donbass belongs to Ukraine — a direct contradiction of Russia's own constitution, which annexed the region in 2022. Moscow is now negotiating from a position of strength because it physically holds what the US-Ukraine deal promised to deliver.

➡️ THE BIG LOSER: EUROPE — Europe is not at the table. It lost cheap Russian gas. It is paying for Ukraine's reconstruction. And it risks being locked out of the rare earth scramble entirely. Emmanuel Todd said it in March 2025: "Europe is afraid of peace." Because peace would force European elites to confront the problems they have ignored for decades.

Trump signed a deal with Kyiv for resources that Moscow controls. Now he's negotiating with Moscow. Ukraine risks being sidelined in a deal about its own soil. And Europe — once again — pays the bill without a seat at the table.

#Trump #Ukraine #Russia #Donbass #RareEarths #Dmitriev #Geopolitics #Dossier120

Independent analysis. No ideology. Just facts.

Marco | Independent Analyst ⚖️✓

[Ahmed 🇾🇪 Zaid @Ahmed175143]

This is my house in Old Sana'a, it's over 500 years old. My house is older than your country, my house has more history than you and your country combined.

My house is older than almost all the Western countries .

A person whose origins are unknown, living on stolen land, after killing its indigenous, tells me that I am not one of the indigenous !!!

First, tell us who you are and where you're from. Do you know your grandfather, or was he a random guy your grandmother met in clup ? Tell us, was your grandfather a criminal who fled from Europe to America?

Who are you, you fool, to speak about us?

Any Yemeni can tell you his lineage back to his thirtieth grandfather. Talk with respect and politeness when you speak about us.

The Houthi is the leader of Yemen, he is a son of Yemen, he is the origin of Yemen.

You ignorant fool, do your research! There's an entire region in Yemen called Houth.

Go and take a shower before you utter the name of Yemen.

You are nothing to us; a Yemeni child's shoe is more important than you.

Who are you ? Why iam talking to you ? Why iam wasting my time with