tesrak

I like to share financial market analysis. YouTube (more content in the works):

[tesrak @tesrak]

Shoutout to @satymahajan.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@therealmorph835 What if it’s only 3x leverage? Asking for a friend.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@johnfcarter would you be able to expound on your gap analysis in ‘Mastering the Trade’? How many years of data was used? Is it just on the index or did you multiple tickers? Have you seen a shift in this since the book was published? Thanks for the response.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@satymahajan @deep_seek_truth Sounds like a smart guy.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@satymahajan 🫡

[tesrak @tesrak]

@therealmorph835 Reason you used QQQ over NDX? You used SPX over SPY so it seems inconsistent. NDX would give you more data.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@therealmorph835 Me? Retire? Love it too much for that.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@therealmorph835 Only the real ones understand holding this long

[tesrak @tesrak]

September 11th makes one of the most bullish average days of the ones I’ve seen so far. Since 2008 only one closed down. Average close around the .5 ATR level. For reference most random series of days average ends up looking like noise around the previous close.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@gunnerbean I understand what you are asking now. Hang tight. Hoping to have something exhaustive that will answer your questions and more in the near future.

[Saty @satymahajan]

The Weekly Pivot
September 7, 2025

- Bad jobs report & September Rate Cuts
- $SPX seasonality
- $SPX Daily & Weekly chart analysis

https://t.co/OtnmlVYKkC

[tesrak @tesrak]

@therealmorph835 @satymahajan So 2017?

[tesrak @tesrak]

I overlayed the last 5 years of price action during Jackson Hole Speech day, plotted against @satymahajan ATR. 2022 was an outlier, the rest closed above the .618 level. All of them completed a golden gate. Volatility starts around 10AM.

[tesrak @tesrak]

Some people thought perhaps there was a pattern where every three years is bearish based on the chart I posted last night. So I went ahead and made this to show 2013 and 2010 as well. 2013 was about the most lackluster of all of these. But both ended positive.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@jyp501 Interesting pattern. Time will tell

[tesrak @tesrak]

@ErikMar37258401 That hasn’t happened yet. I do not own a time machine.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@xxxx_chen @satymahajan If you want to draw conclusions like that from 5 or even 9 years of data be my guest.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@nakamsavill @satymahajan Yes. That was the implication. I should have been more clear that was what I was getting at.

[tesrak @tesrak]

@super_peepee @satymahajan Thank you. I just made it. I’ll share more when I find things interesting