Bond Regisseur

EM DM Rates Trader

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@DannyDayan5 This short term UST correlation flip to AI is dumb af. With Oil rocketing long-term downside for bonds much greater now.

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@BraxResearch You opened today ?

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

Looks like Yanbu East West Pipeline got hit by Houthis

https://t.co/PXR3DeIIMU

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@paxtrader777 Where is your table ?

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

ZB countertrend rally should end here soon. Adding small shorts 105-12

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@Dcpcooks Rangebound

[ConvexityMaven @ConvexityMaven]

New Commentary.....

The CBOT Bond future is Negatively Convex such that a further rate rise could create the equivalent of Scott Bessent selling $110 Billion twenty-year bonds into the market.

Today, I detail the construction of this futures contract and posit that this could be a contributing factor to why interest rates have risen so quickly.

More specifically, be careful that 6% on the twenty-year rate could become a Convexity Vortex.

https://t.co/BmdjkaGtNx

@profplum99 @LukeGromen @dampedspring @jam_croissant @biancoresearch @EconguyRosie @ErikSTownsend @tracyalloway

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@DannyDayan5 Which means the lows are not in yet

[Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks]

No one owns enough oil

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

Houthis and IRGC on absolute rampage today. With Saudi energy infrastructure also at risk, oil has asymmetric upside risk

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

I CANNOT OVERSTATE HOW MUCH OF A NOTHING BURGER THIS IS

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

300,000 tonnes would cover approximately 2.2 days of the global deficit. insufficient to resolve a major global shortage.

[TT3 @TradingThomas3]

Gotta get oil down somehow

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@BraxResearch Looks like in range consolidation. I don’t see us going much lower than 5.15 (5.05) unless AI trade blows up or Oil UST correlation breaks apart. Oil will march higher from here and with that market would bring the 2002 yield-peak at 5.473% into view

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

Crude Dec contract breaking out here, can lead to pressure in front end rates (+flattening)

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@excessreturnpod Basically got banged on his entry, now bag-holding aka long-term portfolio holding

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@BraxResearch You thinking bear flattener the next trade?

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

@CreditEm How tf you get sellside research when you are sellside

[Bond Regisseur @atqed58]

Rates and Oil are coiling in a triangle formation

[Nostra, House of Gold @Nostre_damus]

The Houthis have blasted the Saudi east west pipeline again

pumping station #2 is on fire

Let's check the oil price, i'm sure the market will sell off on the news