aug weth

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@WallStreetSilv EU is not a state, but because you are complete moron, no one cares.

[Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦 @RaduHossu]

Why is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going exactly as planned and definitely not moving slowly, but rather moving better than many expected? However, the devil is in the details, which I intend to expose here, according to my humble opinion:

1. Before presenting my arguments, I would like to reiterate that I am a political consultant and by no means a military analyst. I am a layperson in the art of war, a simple and humble observer of the events in Ukraine, but I have read extensively about techniques, tactics, and military strategy because political strategy derives from them, which is practically one of the things I was involved in before the war in Ukraine.

Also, before presenting my arguments, I want us to superficially delve into what is happening on the front in terms of offense and defense, as they are defined by theorists of modern warfare:

1.1 The type of Russian defense. A combination of static defense (such as fortifications like the Maginot Line in WW2) and in-depth defense, meaning dispersed defense in multiple layers (defense lines), such as the Surovikin Line.

1.2 The type of Ukrainian attack. A combination of methodical attack and breakthrough attack (or as it has materialized in the collective mindset, the term Blitzkrieg).

2. Please take into consideration that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) do not have air superiority or air supremacy. Therefore, the Western doctrine of attack, which relies on air supremacy, cannot be implemented in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

2.1 At the same time, when considering the idea that "the counteroffensive is moving slowly," please compare it unintentionally with the Kharkiv counteroffensive in September 2022.

I say unintentionally because in the field of communication sciences, this is called "shadow framing," which means what remains as residual memory and what we refer to every time we compare the unfolding of an event, the actions of a person, or the actions of the same person in situations that seem similar, but at a certain time interval between the two actions.

3. Therefore, "shadow framing" subconsciously dictates to you that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are not advancing quickly. No one would have known what "quick" means if they didn't have a benchmark to compare it to, and that benchmark is for many of those who have been following the war from the beginning, exactly what I mentioned above: the Kharkiv counteroffensive. However, what our own brain deceives us about is that it does not take into account several variables that have changed since then:

3.1 The Russian army did not have any kind of fortified defense line. At this moment, the Surovikin Line has up to 6 successive lines of defense in depth, some of which are fortified. So, the difference between Russian defense then and now is like the difference between hitting a wall at a speed of 80 km/h in a 1966 Lada or in a 2023 Premium SUV.

3.2 By having this time at their disposal, the Russians, by constructing the Surovikin Line, have put the Ukrainians in difficulty, which means they have to adapt their attack from what we saw almost daily in September 2022 as a breakthrough attack (Blitzkrieg) to a positional attack combined with limited breakthroughs. Why do they do this? To limit their losses and to not lose momentum.

3.3 In September 2022, by deceiving the Russians that the attack would be in Kherson, the Russians were forced to dislocate a large part of their troops to defend the only city that had both symbolic and strategic value: Kherson. The Ukrainians did this then to scatter their defense in Kharkiv, and they succeeded.

Today, the Russians know clearly that the attack will be in the southern front, and moreover, they have detonated the Khakovka dam in a terrorist style to slow down the Ukrainians from attacking them from two flanks.

3.4 In September 2022, HIMARS was still a novelty for the Russians, and they did not yet have a response to it. The destruction caused by HIMARS to the logistics centers on the Kharkiv front, such as Velyki Burluk, Kupyansk, and Izium, was decisive for the collapse of the front altogether.

Today, we have a completely different situation. It is true that now there is Shadow Storm, which works wonders, but the Russians have adapted. There are fewer large troop concentrations, the depots are smaller and dispersed (to make the use of Shadow Storms economically inefficient), and the logistics centers are also smaller and dispersed in multiple localities.

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Thus, what we see today is NOT comparable in any way to the counteroffensive in Kharkiv, to which the majority (including Western Generals) of people refer when they say "the counteroffensive is moving slowly."

If we start taking that into consideration, then let's see what we're looking at. The map that I have drawn here was done on May 5, almost 2 months ago.

"1" on the map represents what I call the "Southern Kherson Island," delimited to the south by the entrance to Crimea, to the east by the border of Zaporizhia Oblast, and to the north and west by the Dnieper River. The plans for this part have been complicated by the terrorist attack by Russia at the Nova Khakovka dam.

"2" on the map represents what I consider the main area that the Ukrainians want to conquer: the zone between Henichesk and Berdiansk.

"3" on the map represents the line of attack that would lead towards Berdiansk and then (or perhaps even before) towards the liberation of Mariupol.

I added the pink arrow because I said 2 months ago to pay attention in the direction of Bakhmut-Siversk-Kreminna.

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4. Taking all these things into consideration, what is Ukraine doing now and why do I believe that this counteroffensive is moving at an absolutely admirable pace, even exceeding expectations in certain areas of the front?

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are using a hybrid model of elastic attack: between breakthrough and positional attacks (using artillery to strike deep and diminish Russian forces). In the initial phase, they attack a point, practically using raid-style attacks (rapid, with high force density and a predetermined time and space limit) to force the Russians to counter with artillery fire - thus exposing their positions and prompting them to send infantry and mechanized infantry to confront the Ukrainians - in what would normally be called "offensive defense."
When the Russians resort to these actions, abandoning their positions, the Ukrainians withdraw and utilize their artillery, IFVs, and tanks. The former is used to destroy Russian artillery batteries, where they still maintain numerical superiority, and the latter is employed to eliminate forces deployed for trench defense.

This strategy is gradually thinning out the defense in the Surovikin Line, which is why we see increasing penetrations of the Russian defense on a daily basis, reaching greater depths.

- The Battle for Bakhmut. Why is it important? Because, based on all the information I have from my sources in Ukraine, confirmed by Ukrainian and Western official sources, the Russians are still massing between 50,000 and 70,000 personnel in that direction. Why? Because Bakhmut is Putin's only victory, and he cannot afford to lose a locality that currently holds no strategic value (just as it did not have any before). Moreover, today Bakhmut is just a destroyed city, with no value for the Russian Federation, the sponsor state of terrorism.
These tens of thousands of troops are thus fixed by the Ukrainians, who have meanwhile taken the initiative, entered Bakhmut (as I wrote a few days ago, now confirmed even by Russian sources), and gained ground both to the north and south of it, forcing the Russians to remain fixated there.

Despite the lower number of artillery batteries, lower ammunition supplies, and the natural disadvantage of being on the offensive, despite the fact that Ukraine's air force is almost non-existent compared to Russia's, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have made progress today on all four axes in the south (Kherson, Vasylivka, Orekhiv-Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka-Berdiansk), but especially in the Bakhmut area, where they have crossed the Siversky Donets canal, are close to encircling Klischiivka, are already attacking Kumydivka and Andriivka to the south, and have territorial gains in the north.

Once again, read the last part: despite all the shortcomings mentioned above, the AFU is advancing at a rate that I honestly, as someone who closely follows the course of the war, did not expect!

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5. Then why did Zelensky say that he will show (speaking in the future tense) that this counteroffensive will prove to go well until the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11, and why did General Mark Milley say, "the counteroffensive is going well, but at a slower pace than expected"?

- Zelensky made a concise political statement because he doesn't have the ability to write thousands of words like I am doing here now. And...

- With all due respect to General Mark Milley, he was the one who stated that "in the event of an invasion, Kyiv will fall within 72 hours" (he made this statement on February 5). So, allow me to disagree with him this time.

Conclusion: We are not in Hollywood; we are talking about a real war, with people dying every day, with advancements by the AFU, and perhaps most importantly, without the AFU engaging with what I call "The Nine" Brigades - the ones specially prepared for this counteroffensive!

I have confidence in the Ukrainian Command because they haven't disappointed me so far, and I am absolutely sure - even though it may sound optimistic, I am used to being criticized for it - that Ukraine will reach the Sea of Azov by the end of this autumn, leading to the liberation of vast territories in the south.

I trust the Ukrainian Armed Forces!

I will reiterate, for those who may not know yet, my appeal for retweets, comments, or likes, even if they may not be pleasing, in order to reach as many people as possible with this information. Because we are also in an information war, and we are the ones fighting on it. It is up to us to win on this front, just as Ukraine will prevail on its territory!

Glory to Ukraine!

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@squatsons biggest military expert in the world, mr ayden who's education was so bad that teachers gave up hope in 1st grade.

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@jacksonhinkle internation response doesn't care about Putin you m o r o n.

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@narrative_hole @Semyaza666 why we don't see evidence of Ukrainian attacks? can you link to some? oh sorry where's nothing to share :DDDD

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@narrative_hole @JLandorff 100 rubbles paid to you for this amazing post. good luck!

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@narrative_hole @CheburekCzech did you see Donetsk picture that it is the most beautiful city in EU?

"ukraine bombing donbas" :DDDDDDDD

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@dim0kq he is WarGone

[Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦 @RaduHossu]

Night Summary (June 30, 02:10 AM RO/UA):

Good news and extremely good news:

1. Counteroffensive:

1.1 I will add the Vasylivka axis to the southern axes (Orihiv-Tokmak axis and Velika Novosiilka-Berkiansk axis).

[SPECULATION!] On May 5th, in the Night Summary on Facebook, I speculated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) would advance along the southern bank of the Dnieper River, south of Energodar, reaching Myhailivka, and then cutting the Russian front in half along the separation line between the Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

So far, it is still unclear what the final purpose of this axis is. It may be a mere testing of the front, but the advancement in this area is evident and should be noted.

1.2 Orihiv-Tokmak axis:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have advanced and are at the gates of Robotyne, practically at the entrance to the "Surovikin Line." This is the first real test for these tactical breakthroughs by the Ukrainians in this phase of the counteroffensive.

Satellite images from Planet Labs indicate that the Russians have built an artificial dam. They didn't need it because Tokmak has enough water sources. The only reason I see is that they built it to detonate it if they need to flood the city.

Tokmak is a crucial logistical and military center on the Orihiv-Melitopol-Azov Sea axis. It is practically the most important logistics point. If Tokmak is liberated (being behind the "Surovikin Line"), it means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have breached the line and are already advancing much faster towards Melitopol/Crimea/Berdiansk. We still need to see what will happen with this dam in the following weeks.

Why do I call them "tactical breakthroughs"? Because the ultimate goal of this counteroffensive is to cut off the land bridge between Donbas and Crimea. That is a strategic goal. To achieve a strategic goal, you have to succeed in your tactical objectives. So far, the AFU is succeeding better than many of us expected, those who closely follow the war.

The AFU's attack model, as I mentioned before, is a hybrid one: partly using Combined Arms Operations (from the American doctrine), but without the aerial support that the US strictly includes in its doctrine, combined with what I know from the Soviet and post-Soviet doctrine, where artillery and the destruction of anything in front of you come down to a rain of shells.
Therefore, we are witnessing an experiment, if I may call it that, from which all the world's armies will learn. So far, despite all the pessimism and even the numbers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are achieving extremely significant advances in this phase of the war. They are gaining 1-2 km per day on all attack axes.

1.3 Velika Novosiilka-Berdiansk axis:

Using the same attack model mentioned above, where they attack positions and the Russians respond with artillery, thereby exposing their location, the Ukrainians have managed to destroy more Russian artillery batteries in recent weeks than tanks, which is happening for the first time since the war began.

They have advanced and are at the gates of the town of Staromayorske from the south, and from the east, after liberating Rivnopil, they threaten to surround Russian troops between Rivnopil and Staromayorske.

1.4 Vasyivka axis:

The AFU is attacking from two fronts, from the west of Lubkove towards Luhove, a city 5 km from Vasylivka. Based on the available information, Vasylivka has served as a command and logistics center for the eastern front of Zaporizhia and one of the fortress cities for the Russians in the ongoing counteroffensive. In the following days, most likely, it will be attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU).

1.5 Herson Axis:

In the past 24 hours, several extremely interesting things have happened. Firstly, what started as preparation for a bridgehead over the Dnieper River from Herson has turned into an actual bridgehead. From 50 Ukrainian soldiers, the numbers have already reached several hundred, if not more. However, battles have been fought today and continue to be fought to conquer the bridge crossing the Konka River and entering the city of Olesky.
Another interesting thing is that similar movements of the Ukrainians have been observed where the Nova Khakovka dam used to be. This indicates that the Ukrainians want to return to what I speculate was the initial plan: an attack from the northern front of Zaporojie and from the east of the Dnieper River before the terrorist catastrophe caused by the Russians.

The most spectacular information on this axis is that the illegal Russian administration has officially issued a statement requesting the evacuation of all settlements east of the Dnieper within a 15 km radius, an indication that they are aware they cannot withstand the Ukrainians on this front.

2. Battle for Bahkmut:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have crossed the Siversky Donets Canal and are attacking Kurdyumivka south of Bakhmut, Andriivka south of Bakhmut, and have surrounded Klischiivka - where I previously mentioned "Zombie Land" in January, where the Wagner Group sent hundreds of soldiers as cannon fodder just to take over the city and prohibit the T0504 from Ivanivske towards Bakhmut.

According to the latest information, the VDV troops have surrendered, and Klischiivka is on the verge of being liberated.

The extraordinary news now confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, something I have been saying for some time (although I was referring to the south): the Russians are starting to abandon their positions inside Bakhmut. Bakhmut has entered the liberation phase!

3. International assistance:

3.1 Germany has announced a new aid package for Ukraine, consisting mainly of crucial logistics and engineering vehicles for river crossings, demining roads ahead of assault brigades, and so on.

3.2 USA: (these are still Pentagon sources quoted by the entire US media): the United States of America is about to provide ATACMS medium-range missiles.

A brief note regarding these missiles, to help everyone understand why they are so important and why they can be "game changers" once again, just like the HIMARS with M31 ammunition entering the battlefield in July of last year:
ATACMS missiles have a range (depending on the missile model used - ATACMS B1 or B2) between 160 and 300 km. This means that almost no ammunition depot, logistic center, railway, or concentration of Russian troops is protected anymore.

From this perspective, they are equally vulnerable to the already famous Shadow Storm, but the latter are in small numbers, and the launch platforms are Su-24 aircraft, of which Ukraine has a small number and can be targeted by Russian air defense systems at any time.

However, ATACMS can be launched from any of the platforms in the HIMARS family - LARS (France), MARS II (Germany), HIMARS (USA), or M270 (UK) - which are already in Ukraine!

If ATACMS reaches Ukraine in the coming weeks, then I guarantee that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will reach the Sea of Azov by the end of autumn, achieving their strategic objective, and I believe AFU will even attempt an incursion into Crimea.

4. Prigozhin vs. Putin/Shoigu/Gerasimov/Who knows?
Benefits for Ukraine:

4.1 At least 25,000 Russian mercenaries out of Ukraine. Considering the estimates from various sources that Russia currently has between 150,000 and 200,000 illegally deployed soldiers in Ukraine, dispersed over a front of over 1,200 km in length, this reduction of 25,000 is incredibly important.

4.2 Destabilization of the Kremlin. We don't know who will open a window at some point, who will drink tea with a strange taste, but what we know for sure is that Putin, in order to maintain the perception of power, will have to find a scapegoat (probably several).

The latest information from sources (ATTENTION! SOURCES! So always take the information with skepticism) is that purges have already begun between the FSB (former KGB) and the Russian Ministry of Defense led by Shoigu. Whether this is happening with or without Putin's knowledge, we cannot know. However, this is clearly a definite advantage for Ukraine.

4.3 The Russians have lost the initiative on the Bakhmut-Soldar-Siversk line precisely because those who were throwing people into battle without valuing their lives (the Wagner Group) are no longer there.

I know, it's a long summary, but I wanted us to have a clear and well-established starting point in early June, to which we can return and see if the Ukrainian advance meets our expectations or not.

For all this good news for democracy, for freedom, for the people who have already given their lives for them, and for those who unfortunately will die so that we can breathe air free from the contamination of the Russian scent, please give a like, share, and especially comment on this post.

For every like/comment/share, the heart of a Putinist, a lover of dictators, a supporter of war criminals, a supporter of a terrorist state, skips a beat.

For every like/comment/share given to this post, people who may not have known much about the war until now and have fallen into the trap of the falsehood of "the counteroffensive is not working, Ukraine is weak, why should we help them?" have a chance to discover the truth. And the truth matters more than anything else!

I am spending my last days on Romanian territory, and then I am heading back to Ukraine. In Herson, to deliver the necessary supplies, purchased with the money donated by hundreds of you - for which I thank you immensely - and then I will go further to the front line to report from there about what is happening, not from the comfort of a sofa!

For Oleg Gubal! For the children of Ukraine stolen by the illegal and unjust invasion of Russia. For all the women violated and tortured! For all the fallen heroes! For freedom! For Romania, Europe, and the whole world are defended by the heroism of Ukrainian soldiers and those from the International Legion and the intelligence of their commanders in making decisions!

Glory to Ukraine!

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@secretsqrl123 belgorod came close...

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@AuronMacintyre "whataboutism" again. we talk about Rogan, you talk about CDC.

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@squatsons didn't you say the same about Lobkove? :DD clown

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@aaronjmate Another dumbzone news. Thank you!

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@LibertyBlitz apply to yourself. haha

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@Beefeater_Fella russians are enjoying this - faking news about agreement was reached but the dates intentionally don't match. BUT, they don't care!

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@aaronjmate "But on an incomprehensible document shown by Putin, there is a completely different date, similar to April 12th. On that day, it became known that the negotiations had reached an impasse.”

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@aaronjmate DumbZone news reporter reporting brain fart. Thank you, we believe in Putin and his true statements about this VERY REAL document.

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@gfodor disband science and reboot what? your brains?

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@LibertyBlitz Remember that US had the most deaths from covid in the world..???!!

[aug weth @aug_weth]

@micsolana another example of "whataboutism" - look, if you can't defend your claims means you are taking our jobs. Really?